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during the national day holiday, the a-share market was closed, but the super market of hong kong stocks and us stocks continued.

in the past week, as of the close on october 4, the hang seng index rose by 10.42% to close at 22,736.87 points; the technology index rose by 17.38% to close at 5,227.13 points; the state-owned enterprises index rose by 11.73% to close at 8,156.50 points.

in addition, the nasdaq china golden dragon index has also risen by more than 11% in the past week and has risen for four consecutive weeks. the index closed above 8,000 points for the first time since february 1, 2023.

the first trading day of a-shares after the national day is getting closer and closer. can the bull market continue? a reporter from nanduwan financial society noticed that throughout the holiday, there were constant conference calls, research reports and other information from domestic and foreign-funded institutions, all of which expressed their optimism about this round of "confidence bull".

according to the website of the state council information office, the state council information office will hold a press conference at 10 a.m. on october 8, 2024 (tuesday), asking the national development and reform commission director zheng shanjie and deputy directors liu sushe, zhao chenxin, li chunlin, and zheng bei to introduce " systematically implement a package of incremental policies to solidly promote the upward structural improvement of the economy and the continued improvement of the development trend." he also answered reporters' questions.

previously, the state council information office held a press conference at 9 a.m. on september 24, 2024 (tuesday). pan gongsheng, governor of the people's bank of china, li yunze, director of the state financial supervision administration, and wu qing, chairman of the china securities regulatory commission, introduced financial support for the economy. regarding high-quality development, he also answered questions from reporters.

the "924" national congress introduced a number of major policies, including lowering reserve requirements, lowering policy interest rates, lowering interest rates on existing mortgages, lowering the down payment ratio for second homes, increasing the central fund support ratio for refinancing, renewing the "16 financial regulations", etc. since september 24, a-shares and hong kong stocks have risen wildly.

ren zeping, a well-known economist, issued an article saying that a-shares are expected to close as soon as they open next week, so you can get off work early, so it is recommended internally to hold shares before the holiday. "this round of confidence bulls, which only happen once in five years, will go through four stages: invisible - looked down upon - incomprehensible - too late."

chen guo, chief strategist of citic securities, pointed out that with the introduction of the financial policy package, a-shares staged a "miracle 5 days", and market sentiment quickly left the panic zone and entered the excitement zone in only 5 trading days. the current market sentiment has returned to the high zone after three years, and has returned to the excitement zone after four years. the current high investor sentiment means that the a-share market has entered a new stage, and we should make investment decisions with a bull market mindset.

does the booming investment enthusiasm mean that the market is overheating and risk adjustment? chen guo said that judging from the experience in 2015, 2019 and 2020, after the sentiment enters the excitement zone, the market often continues to rise in the short term. there may be some adjustments in the market as sentiment falls later, but this adjustment does not mean the end of the bull market. judging from the current sentiment index position, the current market sentiment at the end of september is equivalent to march 5, 2019 or july 7, 2020 in history.

major foreign-funded institutions are also optimistic about the post-holiday market. hsbc pointed out that the a-share market is still undervalued by 15%. based on fundamental factors, the bank believes that there is still considerable room for growth in the future and advises clients to keep an eye on the chinese market. hsbc strategist alastair pinder upgraded china stocks to overweight and said "it's not too late to get in".

morgan stanley also said in its latest report that china's stock market is expected to rise another 10% to 15% in the next few months, thanks to china's recent fiscal and monetary policies.

blackrock also upgraded its rating on chinese stocks to overweight from neutral. blackrock investment research said there is still room for a moderate increase in chinese stocks in the short term, given the near-record discount of chinese stocks to developed market stocks and the presence of catalysts that could spur investors back into the market.

interview and writing | nandu·wancaishe reporter qiu moshan

video|xiao ziqi

editor|dai yue