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ifeng.com financial news the state council information office will hold a press conference at 10 a.m. on october 8, 2024 (tuesday). director zheng shanjie and deputy directors liu sushe, zhao chenxin, li chunlin, and zheng bei of the national development and reform commission will introduce the "systematic implementation of a package of incremental policies" we will solidly promote the upward structural improvement of the economy and continue to improve the development trend." he also answered reporters' questions.

on the last trading day before the holiday, a-shares were in a frenzy. they topped the trending list on weibo and the market exploded! many investors lamented: "today i have witnessed history again!" previously, many investors even called, "there will be no holiday on national day! the holiday will affect my money!"

recently, the money-making effect of a-shares has indeed been long-awaited. on september 30, the three major a-share stock indexes rose favorably. the gem index made a strong move in the afternoon, once rising by more than 16%. more than 5,300 stocks in the two cities rose, more than 2,300 stocks rose by more than 10%, and 400 stocks exceeded the daily limit. industry sectors are booming across the board. the transaction volume of the two cities exceeded 2.59 trillion yuan, setting a new record for the highest transaction volume in history set on may 28, 2015.

needless to say, there is no need to say more about the policy benefits that have driven this round of surge. when huajin securities commented on the policy "gift package" for the first time on september 24, it said that all options were on the table. "the creation of securities, funds, insurance swap facilities and special re-lending will help increase incremental funds in the stock market, stabilize and improve market confidence. the operational level is expected to be prudently designed to avoid excessive issuance of base currency and effectively isolate central bank assets and the stock market volatility risk. it further echoes the new "nine national articles" clearly stated to "vigorously promote the entry of medium and long-term funds into the market and continue to strengthen long-term investment forces". in the context of the deep adjustment of the real estate market, it will stimulate the residents by activating the stock market and guiding the healthy development of the capital market. optimization and upgrade of asset allocation structure.”

what other policy increments can we expect?

so, what other policy increments can we expect next?

ping an securities said in a research report on september 26, "the implementation of monetary and financial policies as a 'vanguard' will help reduce the debt repayment burden of the real economy. however, 'money is like a rope, it can be pulled but not pushed', boosting the overall economy." the demand also needs to be coordinated by other policies.”

therefore, ping an securities believes that five aspects of macro policies can be expected in the future: increasing the intensity and scope of support for consumption-promoting policies, broadening the use of local special bonds, issuance of a batch of ultra-long-term special government bonds as soon as possible, optimizing real estate destocking policies, and encouraging companies to go overseas. and mergers and reorganizations.

expectation 1: increase support for residents’ consumption. 1. expand the support scope of the consumption subsidy policy to small and high-frequency service consumption, and at the same time increase the subsidy proportion. 2. link the consumption subsidy policy with the house purchase and migrant workers settlement policies to release the consumption potential of groups who want to "settl down and buy property." 3. give full play to the enthusiasm of local governments, encourage the issuance of consumer vouchers, relax the withdrawal and use restrictions of provident funds, etc.

expectation 2: expand the use of local special bonds. in the short term, the scope of use of special bonds can be expanded, such as supporting real estate acquisition and storage in various regions, being used by local governments to issue consumption subsidies, and being used for public sector investment. regarding the direction of policy encouragement and support, if the short-term benefits of the project are difficult to achieve self-balancing, a certain proportion of central government interest discount support can be provided. in the medium and long term, it is necessary to control the new quota of special bonds and optimize the government debt structure.

expectation 3: additional issuance of special treasury bonds as soon as possible. due to the decline in tax and land revenue, there is great pressure to reduce fiscal revenue, which restricts the intensity of fiscal expenditures; since june, 40% of new special bonds have been used to resolve existing debts, and general fiscal expenditures have insufficient support for economic growth. considering the long lag in the implementation of fiscal policies, early planning should be made to issue 1 trillion to 2 trillion ultra-long-term special government bonds in advance.

expectation 4: optimize the real estate destocking policy. 1. incorporate the procurement and storage of state-owned enterprises into the investment areas of local government special debt funds, and provide a fiscal discount of 1-2 percentage points for affordable housing loans. 2. expand the acquisition objects and scope of uses of the policy, which can be combined with the "old for new" policy. 3. revitalize “land that has been transferred but has not been started” and support real estate companies in optimizing their land bank structure.

expectation 5: encourage companies to go overseas and merge and reorganize. encouraging companies to go overseas can help withstand the uncertainty of the foreign trade environment and can also feed back into the country. encourage mergers and reorganizations of enterprises, integrate superior resources, and clear out backward production capacity.

what can you buy to chase the rise in october?

there is a classic joke in the stock market, "a positive line changes (shareholders') beliefs!"

in the past five trading days, four big positive lines have not only changed the beliefs of investors, but even institutions believe that "the conditions for the start of the intermediate market have been met, and the continued efforts of fiscal policy will help boost fundamental expectations." , promoting the gradual development of mid-level market conditions in the stock market.

however, because the current market market is so rapid, many investors who have been short for a long time are a little confused by the rise. they want to buy but are afraid of chasing the high, and if they don't buy, they are even more afraid of being short.

so, after the holidays, what highs can you chase?

ifeng.com finance's "investment observation" sorted out the research reports of multiple securities companies and sorted out the following investment main lines and directions:

zheshang securities stated in a research report on september 28 that this round of midline offensive is "at least" equivalent to the two rounds of midline rebounds from april to july 2022 and october 2022 to february 2023. there are two possibilities for the rebound path: one is to follow the "advance two, retreat one" approach, start to surge higher in the next few trading days, and then continue to rebound after "reversing to pick up others"; the other is based on the index's historical co-location comparison and sector rotation characteristics. look, it is possible to get out of the "one wave flow" offensive similar to that from december 2012 to february 2013. regardless of the trend, the current position is not the high point of this midline market.

in terms of allocation, we should still focus on adding positions on dips. if we encounter the opportunity of "advance two, retreat one", it is recommended to increase allocations on dips. in terms of industry allocation, two principles are followed. first, "finance + consumption", focusing on non-bank, real estate liquor, internet and other directions; second, there is a high probability of sector expansion opportunities in the mid-term market, so we can focus on "after blue chips set up the stage" "singing opera in a small plate", focusing on new energy, medicine, media, computers and other directions.

if you only have investment direction but don’t know how to choose stocks specifically, you can take a look at the october gold stocks launched by brokerages.

soochow securities said it will pay more attention to growth stocks in october. "continue to be optimistic about technology growth stocks and oversold rebound growth stocks." specific targets include: china software, goertek, yizumi, focus media, oriental fortune, hengrui pharmaceuticals, sungrow, and catl. in addition to a-shares, soochow securities also recommended two hong kong stocks, namely xpeng motors-w and yihai international.

screenshot of soochow securities gold stocks

kaiyuan securities also recommended 10 gold stocks, namely: shenzhou taiyue, zhongke shuguang, invic, shitou technology, zijin mining, liugong, northern huachuang, and yindu shares. the other two are also hong kong stocks, namely: hong kong stock exchange and xpeng motors w.

screenshot of kaiyuan securities gold stocks

the 10 gold stocks recommended by pacific securities are: nuocheng jianhua, gujing gongjiu, liugong, dengkang dental, zhongman petroleum, catl, siyuan electric, and midea group. the two hong kong stocks are: lepu biologics b and wuxi united.

screenshot of kaiyuan securities gold stocks