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can’t wait for china to open! with the blessing of wall street’s “star effect”, how much traffic can the “china dragon” etf bring?

2024-10-05

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in terms of being bullish on chinese assets, wall street is crazier than big a's investors.

this week, a fund called "roundhill china dragon etf" landed on wall street and officially began trading on october 3, eastern time. after the market closed that day, the product once soared by more than 25%.

according to the official website of roundhill investments, the issuer of the etf, drag is committed to providing investors with equally weighted investments in a basket of stocks composed of five to ten of the largest and most innovative chinese companies that promote global innovation. collectively known as the "chinese dragon".

dave mazza, ceo of roundhill investments, said: “with china’s current historically attractive valuations and the government’s recent major stimulus package to boost the economy, drag provides investors with a timely opportunity to make targeted investments in china. a top technological innovation enterprise.”

ifeng.com's "financial lianhua" found that although roundhill is "young", it is well-known on wall street. last year, it launched the magnificant seven etf (mags), which tracks the "seven technology giants" in the u.s. stock market, and was named the annual by etf.com. "best new etf", and its scale was only us$360 million at that time. in less than a year since it was rated as excellent, mags's management scale has doubled again, reaching us$780 million.

the "roundhill china dragon etf" launched this time is generally considered by the market to be the chinese version of mags, which means that the representative product of the chinese capital market will soon "confront" the seven giants of the us stock market.

how much traffic will "the first etf in history provide precise investment in china's technology leaders" bring?

during the "carnival week" when a-shares soared before the holiday, chinese concept stocks across the ocean were no less crazy than the domestic market. the four largest chinese stock market-related etfs alone saw an inflow of nearly us$2.5 billion, of which kraneshares alone kweb saw an inflow of $700 million on tuesday of that week, recording its largest single-day inflow ever. according to etf.com data, the $5.9 billion ishares msci china etf (mchi) grew last month 35%.

it is worth noting that the holdings of these four largest “china concept stock” etfs are mostly the same:

kweb tracks the csi overseas china internet index. the top ten holdings include tencent, alibaba, meituan, jd.com, pinduoduo, beike, etc.;

mchi tracks the msci china index. the top ten holdings are mainly in the internet and finance, including tencent alibaba, pinduoduo, meituan, china construction bank, bank of china and industrial and commercial bank of china, etc.;

fxi tracks the ftse china 50 index. the top ten holdings include tencent, alibaba, meituan, china construction bank, industrial and commercial bank of china, bank of china, etc.;

ashr tracks the csi 300 index and is the first fund to allow overseas investors to directly enter the a-share market. it is also the only product with slightly different holdings: the top ten holdings include kweichow moutai, catl, china ping an insurance, china merchants banks, yangtze electric power, midea group, etc.

different from the first four, roundhill's introduction to drag also emphasized that "unlike existing chinese etfs that may provide a wide range of investments, drag provides precise investment in the largest and most innovative chinese companies."

more "precise" investment in chinese companies is regarded by roundhill as the key to drag's success. phoenix finance's "financial lianhua" found that there are currently only nine companies in the etf portfolio, and the weight distribution is as follows:

meituan (otcpk: mpngf), with a weight of 11.93%.

netease (ntes), weighting 11.33%.

tencent holdings (otcpk: tcehy), with a weight of 11.15%.

xiaomi corporation (otcpk: xiacf), with a weight of 11.08%.

pdd holdings (pdd), weight 10.99%.

jd.com (jd), with a weight of 10.98%.

baidu inc. (bidu), with a weight of 10.92%.

byd company (otcpk: byddf), weight 10.78%.

alibaba group holdings (baba), with a weight of 10.71%.

in addition, the u.s. market is currently experiencing an etf "craze". just last month, the total assets of u.s. etfs just exceeded the milestone of 10 trillion u.s. dollars and are continuously attracting capital inflows. it is called a milestone event that changes the investment pattern of wall street.

and "chinese assets" are currently very popular. according to a recent report issued by guosen securities, the weekly turnover of most etf products long in china in the u.s. stock market as of september 27 increased by 6 to 7 times compared with the previous week.

roundhill became famous last year after betting on the "seven technology giants" in the us stock market, and the "star effect" of drag, a "little fresh meat", cannot be underestimated.

foreign investors are frequently reporting "mid-market blowbacks" and are preparing for the opening of the chinese stock market next week.

at the end of september, a-shares and hong kong stocks experienced record gains at the end of september, occupying the top three positions among the 92 global benchmark indexes tracked by bloomberg. there are constant voices from foreign investors that "a-shares will outperform the entire emerging market."

goldman sachs pointed out in the report that the capital inflows of goldman sachs' overseas trading platform between september 24 and 26 set a new historical record, and hedge funds and long-term investors showed strong buying intentions. after observing the capital size of the unilateral long strategy and the popularity of derivatives market transactions, goldman sachs concluded that the upward momentum can continue.

wang ying, chief equity strategist of morgan stanley china, said in the latest comments that the central bank’s unexpected policy support measures should help improve investor sentiment and liquidity, and promote a positive response in the onshore and offshore markets in the short term;

morgan asset management believes that the current overall valuation level of a-shares is at a relatively low level in the past decade. in the context of the continued recovery of the domestic economy, the federal reserve’s interest rate cuts have opened up domestic monetary policy space. combined with the fiscal policy in the second half of the year, it may increase its intensity to 300 billion. ultra-long-term special treasury bonds have been issued, the "two new" policies have been fully launched, and the market is expected to stabilize and rebound;

bank of america's research report pointed out that the a-share market will gain new liquidity from banks and non-bank financial institutions, and believes that if the market performs well and lasts long enough, the return of retail investors and overseas investors may further help stabilize the market.

blackrock's latest weekly report showed that it raised its rating on chinese stocks from "neutral" to "overweight" and said there is still room to moderately increase its holdings of chinese stocks in the short term.

on october 3, hsbc raised its rating on mainland china stocks from neutral to overweight, and citigroup also raised the ratings of a number of a-share companies.

in addition to applause and cheers, foreign capital also invested a lot of "real money".

according to bloomberg’s latest interview research, mount lucas management, a hedge fund from the united states, has established a bullish position in chinese etfs, while singapore’s gao capital and south korea’s timefolio asset management are buying chinese blue chip stocks.

the latest information disclosed by the hong kong stock exchange shows that on the evening of october 3, jpmorgan chase bought china pacific insurance h shares for hk$267 million, byd h shares for hk$1.791 billion, tsingtao beer h shares for hk$242 million, and hong kong exchange h shares for hk$1.813 billion. , buying more than hk$4.1 billion of chinese assets in one day.

as the holidays gradually come to an end, the global market has held its breath, waiting for the national day holiday to end, and even... gold, which has fallen for two consecutive trading days, has temporarily stopped falling, adding to the mood.

next week will kick off, and the chinese stock market will continue to be exciting...