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will there be a crash after a sharp rise? zhang yidong firmly said that a-shares and hong kong stocks have "passed through the mountains"

2024-10-04

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financial associated press, october 3 (reporter zhou xiaoya)after a good start on october 2, hong kong stocks experienced a correction today.

the hong kong stock market as a whole emerged from a "v-shaped" market, and the overall index decline narrowed in the afternoon. as of the close, the hang seng technology index fell 3.46%, halting its sixth consecutive rise, and the hang seng index closed down 1.47%. although hong kong stock prices have fallen, a-share etfs listed in hong kong are still booming.

as the market closed lower today, the market began to discuss whether hong kong stocks will continue to undergo adjustments. judging from the performance of shanghai and shenzhen etfs in the first three quarters, hong kong stock themed products have surpassed us stock products to lead the market. during the period when hong kong stock-themed etfs were strong, the application and redemption of funds in some products varied. there were common cases of funds taking profits and leaving the market, and there were also products that were "buying more as they rose."

will there be a crash after a sharp rise?

as the hang seng index and hang seng technology index turned green today, real estate, biotechnology and other sectors have made more adjustments. wind data shows that hong kong real estate ii index, hong kong semiconductor and semiconductor production equipment, hong kong consumer durable goods and clothing and other indices all fell by more than 4%. , hong kong's pharmaceutical, biotechnology and life technology index fell nearly 4%

etfs listed on the hong kong market were adjusted simultaneously. the csop science and technology innovation board 50 index etf, which once rose by more than 200% yesterday, experienced a brief strengthening after the opening today, and then fell back in shock. as of the close, it closed down 3.82%.

bosera science and technology 50 etf led the hong kong etf market today. however, the etf also experienced a high opening and low trend today. it once rose by more than 100% during the session, and finally closed up 24.38%.

overall, many etfs tracking the a-share market were among the top gainers today. premia china science and technology innovation 50 etf, csop china gem index etf, chinaamc msci china a50 connectivity etf, etc. rose by more than 7%. on the other hand, at the other end of the list, csop hang seng technology index daily leveraged (2x) product performed at the bottom today, closing down more than 7%.

as the market fell, dan bin once again posted on weibo and claimed, "the big drop just provides cheaper buying opportunities for those who are optimistic about the bull market." he commented on the hong kong stock market yesterday, saying that such a sharp rise will inevitably lead to a sharp drop. this time if you are trapped again, there will be no hope of getting out of the trap.

zhang yidong, global chief strategist of industrial securities, said that the shock in hong kong stocks just verified the reversal logic, rather than a short-lived rebound.

hong kong stock themed etfs led gains in the first three quarters

judging from the performance of non-stock etfs in shanghai and shenzhen stock markets in the first three quarters, hong kong stock themed etfs have surpassed nasdaq technology etfs and led the market.

wind data shows that as of september 30, the net return of bosera csi hong kong stock connect internet etf for the year reached 43.68%, ranking first in the list of non-cargo etfs in the first three quarters; followed by china securities shanghai-shenzhen-hong kong gold industry stock etf and the net value returns of e fund national securities new energy battery etf during the year were 37.15% and 36.83% respectively.

the aforementioned three non-cargo etfs are all newly established products during the year. among them, bosera csi hong kong stock connect internet etf and bosera csi hong kong southbound internet etf set new highs in net worth since their respective establishments on september 30.

excluding the newly established products during the year, the hong kong stock-themed etf, the southern hang seng china enterprise etf, had the highest net value return, reaching 36.28%. chinaamc hang seng internet technology etf, e fund hang seng h share etf, china hang seng china enterprise etf, e fund csi overseas internet etf, huabao csi hong kong stock connect internet etf, wells fargo csi hong kong stock connect internet etf, huaan hang seng internet technology industry etf, etc. many etfs also rose by more than 30%.

it is worth noting that with the recent strength of hong kong stock-themed etfs, the application and redemption of funds in some products has diverged. judging from the net redemptions of etfs in the first three quarters, the china hengsheng technology etf has had the largest net redemptions during the year, reaching 8.073 billion units. as of now, the scale of the fund is 26.197 billion yuan.

since the third quarter alone, the etf's net return has exceeded 30%, but about 700 million units were redeemed during the same period, and the etf's net return during the year reached 26.43%.

the fund shares of china hang seng internet technology etf also decreased by more than 8 billion shares during the year. the etf’s net value return during the year was 34.85%, of which the net value in the third quarter increased by 32.49%. however, the etf saw net subscriptions in the third quarter, with an increase of 488 million units during the period, and the fund size increased to 36.544 billion yuan, a new high since the etf was established.

invesco great wall csi hong kong stock connect technology etf and huatai-pinebridge csi hong kong stock connect 50 etf also lost more than 2 billion shares during the year. however, since the third quarter, the net value and share of invesco great wall csi hong kong stock connect technology etf have both ushered in a new year. pick up.

the wells fargo csi hong kong stock connect internet etf received a net subscription of 7.04 billion units in the third quarter, making it the most subscribed product other than the broad-based etf during the same period. the net value of the etf rebounded by more than 30% in the third quarter, and the net return during the year reached 31.85. %, the fund share increased by 4.225 billion this year, and the latest scale has reached 17.684 billion yuan.

regarding the follow-up market of hong kong stocks, huabao fund's recent views mentioned that it maintains four allocation clues, including the convergence of ah premiums-increased allocation of hong kong stocks; and the implementation of the federal reserve's interest rate cut-hong kong stocks internet and pharmaceuticals that will benefit strongly from the interest rate cut.

zhang yidong believes that the recent market prices of china's a-shares and hong kong stocks can be described as "a boat has passed a thousand mountains". during the rise in october, they may encounter disturbances such as the us election and european and american stock market shocks, which may lead to short-term profit taking. after the recent rise in hong kong stocks, there is still room for further recovery. the recent surge is a "correction" after the reversal of pessimistic expectations. considering the current policy orientation and intensity of changes, the risk appetite, valuation, and valuation gap between core assets and overseas leading companies in this round of market should be repaired in many aspects, at least close to january 2023 levels.