hong kong stocks staged a "v-shaped" rebound! what happens?
2024-10-03
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on october 3, hong kong stocks fluctuated sharply, with a "big plunge" after the opening. the hang seng index once fell by more than 4%, and the hang seng technology index once fell by more than 7%. however, hong kong stocks rose strongly in the afternoon, showing a "v-shaped" rebound, and the declines of many indexes narrowed significantly.
as of the close of the day, both the hang seng index and the hang seng technology index ended six consecutive daily gains. the hang seng index fell 1.47% to 22113.51 points, the hang seng technology index fell 3.46% to 4978.64 points, and the state-owned enterprises index fell 1.58% to 7914.16 points. , the red chip index fell 2.15% to 4201.04 points.
from a sector perspective, the real estate, pharmaceutical, and industrial sectors were among the top decliners. among them, many real estate stocks fell by more than 10%, such as greenland hong kong fell by 30.38%, shimao group fell by 27.05%, e-house enterprise holdings fell by 21.74%, kaisa group fell by 10.16%; among large technology stocks, alibaba-w fell by 4.43% , tencent holdings fell 0.81%, jingdong group-sw fell 7.94%, xiaomi group-w rose 0.21%, netease-s rose 0.12%, meituan-w rose 3.96%, kuaishou-w fell 4.59%, bilibili- w fell 7.03%.
the reporter noticed that there is news that the democratic alliance for the betterment of hong kong has issued six major suggestions in the proposal "enhancing hong kong's status as a new stock listing and financing center". among them, the proposal to lower the stock stamp duty has attracted attention. industry insiders pointed out that if the stamp duty rate is reduced and transaction costs are reduced, it can stimulate market transaction activity and promote the flow of funds.
regarding the substantial adjustment of hong kong stocks that day, some industry analysts said that due to the short-term rise speed and magnitude, the short-term general trend also has divergent needs. however, considering the strong intensity of this round of policies, the expected increase in incremental funds, and the macro environment, the positive drive and the bottoming out of optimistic expectations make it difficult to form an "a-shaped" downward trend. it is expected that it will first experience a period of divergence and shock after rising, and then it is expected to rise again.
zhang yidong, global chief strategist of industrial securities, said that the shock in the hong kong stock market has just verified the reversal logic, rather than a short-lived rebound. in october, hong kong stocks and a-shares are expected to turn from the recent short-squeeze rebound into a more sustained shock reversal.
morgan stanley said chinese stocks could rise a further 10% to 15% if the chinese government announces more support measures in the coming weeks. expectations of further fiscal expansion are back on the table, causing investors to view china through an inflationary lens for the first time in a long time.
looking forward to the market outlook, citic securities believes that the valuation of hong kong stocks shows sufficient room for upside. in terms of market outlook, the hong kong technology and internet sector has seen a significant recovery in profitability, benefited from the wave of dividend buybacks in terms of valuation, and benefited from the favor of foreign capital in terms of liquidity, so it deserves the most attention.
text/guangzhou daily new flower city reporter wang chuhan
photo/guangzhou daily new flower city reporter wang chuhan
guangzhou daily new flower city editor: long jiali
