news

한어Русский языкEnglishFrançaisIndonesianSanskrit日本語DeutschPortuguêsΕλληνικάespañolItalianoSuomalainenLatina

i believe that a bull market in the capital market is actually a reflection of the entire country’s economic undertakings.

recently, when i was watching the bull market performances in various countries, there would be three stages similar to "pull-up - consolidation - reaching the top", which made me involuntarily think of the summary of the qing dynasty scholar wang guowei,those who achieve great careers and great knowledge in ancient and modern times must pass through three realms.(i also feel that there are many timeless essences in chinese culture)

in my opinion, this bull market reflects our vow to reverse deflation and end the expected balance sheet recession. i predict that this bull market will similarly go through these three stages:

the first paragraph of "confidence revalues ​​the cow":"last night, the west wind withered the green trees, and i climbed up to the tall building alone, looking to the end of the world." this paragraph refers to putting forward a lofty vision in the face of huge difficulties and challenges. the current problems facing china's economy are the result of decades of development, and problems such as the future population cycle are also extremely challenging. therefore, deflation at this stage makes many people find it difficult to escape, even worried and discouraged, and this low confidence itself it also affects the economic activity itself, and the pricing of the capital market is also a reflection to some extent. reversing deflation and reversing expectations can be the first step. therefore, it is a very critical first step to take a long view, have ambitious and clear goals, and boost morale at this time. once the market is inspired by this, the first period of the bull market will be staged. this is often the easiest period to make money in the bull market. , even entering the stock market is like picking up money, it is basically an exponential general rise in the market, and consensus on the expectation level is quickly formed, so on the other hand, the first period is often not long. taken together, we are currently in the second half of this first period.

the second paragraph of "confidence revalues ​​cows":‌"i will never regret it when my clothes are getting wider, and i will become haggard for the sake of iraq." it is relatively easy to have high goals, but it is inevitable to go through hardships to truly achieve a big business, because if you really want to end debt deflation, it is not so the results will be achieved soon, but there will be constant difficulties and obstacles in the middle. so the first paragraph is just an expectation. by the second paragraph, many people will give up and think that it will not succeed in the end. after all, whether the fundamentals can really improve and deflation can really be defeated, these questions cannot be confirmed at the moment. we can only rely on unswerving and comprehensive advancement of work. this second period is often a stage of repeated market movements in a bull market. generally speaking, the index will no longer rise rapidly and will show a tendency to fluctuate. it is also a stage where it is more difficult to make money. this is a stage where investors' performance is differentiated. some investors will the occurrence of losses is also a stage where it is easier to have a wait-and-see mood.

"confidence revalues ​​cows"‌paragraph 3‌:"the crowd searched for him thousands of times, but when i suddenly looked back, he was there in the dim light." this period is about continuous efforts, suddenly seeing the light, until it is confirmed that it leads to success. this success may even make people feel trance: it is really successful. ! it turns out that we can overcome such huge difficulties and challenges! i believe that once the economic battle to reverse deflation is confirmed to be successful, the world will be impressed. the chinese people will be more confident in the great rejuvenation of the nation, and the entire country's economic development will enter a new stage. in that context, "confidence revaluates cows" is the real success. i look forward to our reunion at that moment.

——chen guo, chief strategy officer, managing director, and deputy director of the research committee of citic securities