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text丨li yueliang

the stock market is extremely popular, and everyone is talking about stocks and money.

many old friends asked me to write.

then i will write my personal opinion.

01

let me tell you my judgment first:

i am optimistic about this wave and think it will rise again in october.

there may be a correction, but overall it should be a volatile upward trend.

the specific reasons are as follows:

the background this time is that on september 18, the united states announced an interest rate cut after two years of raising interest rates.

in the past, interest rates in the united states were high, and a large amount of global funds were deposited in american banks to earn interest.

now that interest rates have been cut, everyone will naturally want to find another place to make a fortune.

where to go?

china opens its door and says, a-shares welcome you and create a new world for you.

just six days after the u.s. cut interest rates, on september 24, the central bank issued a package of monetary policies.

two days later, the political bureau of the central committee held a meeting and released a series of important information.

the core is clear: boost the stock market, stabilize the property market, and boost the economy.

the policies are also very powerful.

for example, the governor of the central bank directly said, "(give the stock market) a first tranche of 500 billion yuan, and if it goes well, another 500 billion yuan, or even a third 500 billion yuan."

there are a lot of similar blockbuster policies.

breaking people’s doubts one by one——

are you worried about the stock market falling again?

yang ma said, "you can buy it with confidence, i'll take care of everything, and i'm ready to spend trillions on it."

are you worried that small retail investors will be cut off when they enter the market?

the central government has clearly stated that “policies to protect small and medium-sized investors must be introduced.”

even to reassure overseas investors, china test-fired an intercontinental missile with great fanfare on september 25.

the statement does not target any country, but the missile range is 12,000 kilometers (beijing to new york is 11,000 kilometers).

it means that everyone can rest assured that even if a war breaks out, china will be able to protect itself. leave your money with us and it will be safe.

these are the combination of punches that china focused on a few days after the u.s. cut interest rates.

obviously, this big game has been prepared for a long time, just waiting for the united states to cut interest rates.

02

this set of punches has been effective so far.

in four days, the average profit per person in the a-share market was tens of thousands, and the whole audience was overjoyed.

of course, there are also those who seize the opportunity and run away, and there are those who are hesitant and dare not enter.

fundamentally, the choice made at such a critical juncture tests one's judgment of the country:

the country stepped up its stance and said that it was going to create a bull market.

do you believe he has this strength?

if you believe it, enter the market; if you don’t believe it, run away.

the more people believe, the more successful this bull market will be.

facts have proved that most people still believe in the country.

as soon as the country shouted, the price of big a was so high that it almost floated.

the key is that the national team's money hasn't come in yet, comrades.

the policy had just come out and money hadn't even had time to enter the market. big a was already like this.

sure enough, confidence is more precious than gold.

one of the reasons why i judge that prices will continue to rise in october is that the national team’s ammunition has not yet been fired.

even if a large number of short sellers appear in the next one or two months, the country will still have the strength to protect the market.

my friends and i have been talking about the stock market these days.

i have a friend who is pessimistic and always feels that society is failing and the economy is going to be ruined.

the government issued the policy two days ago. he theoretically knew that the stock market was going to rise, but he was determined not to buy it and also prevented us from buying it.

i am exactly the opposite of him. although i know that there are various problems, i still believe in our greater china.

so when i saw the policy on september 26, i felt it was a great benefit, so on the 27th, i used the 150,000 live money i had on hand to buy an equity fund.

then on the 30th, i made more than 10,000 yuan.

after holding it for one day, the profit was 9.29%, which is a long time coming.

of course, as long as the money doesn't come out, it's not yours.

whether it will be profitable or not is hard to say yet.

03

there is an interesting phenomenon this time.

that is, most people in the industry remain cautious and dare not make too optimistic judgments.

i can’t even believe that the bull market is coming.

because this goes against common sense——

the fundamentals of the economy have not changed, but just a few policies can create a bull market in three days? can a shares rise 8% in one day?

this is unbelievable.

but this is the fact. the situation is too good to be optimistic.

therefore, a-shares often make people in the industry schizophrenic——

common sense tells you that this is very unscientific.

but reality tells you that this is true, and you must accept it.

while the "right pessimists" are still unconvinced, the "wrong optimists" are already jubilant and making money.

by the time you are finally convinced and hesitate to follow, the most profitable time may have passed.

this bull market is different from any other in the past.

because messages travel very quickly these days.

when a bull market started in the past, good news often spread from person to person. it took about two months for it to spread from the financial circle to old investors to the wet market ladies.

now the aunt may have heard about it the next day.

therefore, the moment a major benefit comes out, a lot of people may flock to it.

the bull market that started slowly in the past two or three months may now pick up in a few days.

who makes more money no longer depends on who knows the stock market better and who is better informed.

but who is more decisive, who is more optimistic, who believes in the country more, and who has never been cut off a leek before.

if there are enough optimists, the stock market will do well enough.

they don't play their cards according to economic laws at all.

this caused those experienced industry veterans to lose to novices one after another.

because when a large number of ordinary people participate, whether the stock market will rise or not is no longer just a financial issue.

it is a complex issue that combines psychology, sociology, economics, philosophy, and metaphysics.

if experts only stand from a financial perspective, they will definitely not be accurate. (of course, you have to listen to experts for some specific operating techniques)

04

industry insiders now have a common concern.

because generally speaking, the premise for the stock market to rise is that the economy is improving.

when the social economy is good, listed companies collectively make money, and stocks appreciate, it is logical for the stock market to rise.

but now our economy is facing many difficulties, but the stock market has been artificially boosted.

this so-called "artificial buffalo" is clearly dangerous and unhealthy.

indeed.

but it's unhealthy, but it also has an effect.

because the stock market can also stimulate the economy in reverse and even revitalize the overall situation.

first, in theory, if the stock price rises, the listed company will have more money and can develop the company better.

second, when investors make money, they will spend it.

people are like this. they are reluctant to spend the money they earn from moving bricks. they want to go out and spend money the same day they make money from stocks.

when people consume, small businesses and small businesses will make money, and the economy may be revitalized.

when the economy gets better, people's lost confidence will be restored, and the situation will be better.

third, if china's economy improves and the stock market makes money again, global hot money may flow into china and continue to push up the chinese economy, forming a positive cycle.

there is a saying called "making a lie into reality".

i think it’s appropriate to describe this round of rise in the stock market.

it may be false prosperity at first.

but once the atmosphere is heightened and everyone regains their confidence, they all feel good and dare to spend money.

hey, don’t tell me, it might actually become prosperous.

05

finally, there is a key question:

if the bull market really comes, if a large number of people really make money.

who loses? who pays the bill in the end?

i think there are probably three types of people.

first, people who have not made any money in this market.

the central bank releases a large amount of water, and the rmb will naturally be diluted.

prices are likely to rise in the future.

if you don’t make any money this time, you will have to bear the consequences of inflation.

that would naturally be a loss.

of course, this kind of loss should not be much, so there is no need to worry.

second, those who entered the market at a high position and were trapped.

this is obviously the worst.

no matter how good the market is, there will be times when it falls.

those who enter the market at a high point but refuse to close when the market is good are the last to pay.

therefore, we would like to remind everyone not to be greedy, but to pay close attention to the situation, and to leave the market decisively if you feel it is dangerous.

third, people all over the world are actually paying the bill.

because the money of global investors can flow anywhere.

generally speaking, where money flows, prosperity prevails.

china's technology has boosted the stock market and directed money to us.

when we gain, others lose.

it's like they pay for our prosperity.

of course, there is no need to feel guilty.

because many times, we are also paying for others.

the interest rate hikes in the united states in the past two years have also cost us a lot of blood.

this is the truth of the world——

under the garb of civilization and harmony, they fight and scheme against each other.

no one will be soft on anyone.

so we have nothing to be polite about. it is serious business to live a good life in the cruel competition, not to be bullied, and not to be used as a horse.

of course, i am quite confident about this.

when it comes to strategy, who can beat the chinese?

okay, finally i have to say that the above are all personal opinions and do not constitute investment advice.