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china recently conducted a test launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile in international waters in the pacific, attracting global attention.

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at 8:44 on september 25, the chinese people's liberation army rocket force successfully launched an intercontinental ballistic missile carrying a training simulation warhead into the relevant high seas of the pacific ocean, and accurately landed in the predetermined sea area.

china said the missile launch was a routine annual military training arrangement that complied with international law and practice and was not aimed at any specific country or target. this is the first time in 44 years that china has launched an intercontinental ballistic missile into the sea, which quickly attracted great attention from domestic and foreign media.

various analysis agencies began to speculate on flight paths based on public airspace warnings. they believe that the missile was launched from hainan province and landed in the waters near the french polynesian islands in the south pacific. its range has reached about 12,000 kilometers.

regarding the missile model, landing point, and what kind of signal does the missile release this time? speculations abound.

military expert chen haoyang:

"the missile was launched at 8:44 a.m. on september 25. at first, some friends were still not aware of it. why did they announce the specific launch time? it can be said that this is a way of expression for china, and it is also a commemoration. , it’s good to declare again. the successful test launch of the long-range launch vehicle into the pacific 44 years ago marked the formation of china’s first-generation strategic deterrent force. today, it demonstrates that china’s strategic deterrence force is already at the world’s advanced level. "

while various conjectures were still fermenting, the next day, the chinese military disclosed relevant photos: a cylindrical missile emitting flames and thick smoke, and the launch site was surrounded by open grassland.

according to external analysis, the missile model is highly similar to the dongfeng-31ag in appearance, and is not the dongfeng-41 as previously speculated.

the df-31 is china's first solid-fuel long-range ballistic missile. its first public appearance was at the china national day military parade in 1999. it was put into service in september 2006. dongfeng-31ag, also known as dongfeng-31a modification, is an improved model based on the dongfeng-31a intercontinental missile. there is no clear official data on the specific range of the dongfeng-31ag. the u.s. department of defense once judged in the "china military power report" that the maximum range of the df-31a missile exceeds 11,000 kilometers, and the df-31ag is newer than the df-31a.

dongfeng-41 is a fourth-generation strategic missile developed by china. it can carry about 10 separately guided multiple warheads and has a maximum range of 14,000 kilometers. it is believed that its top speed can reach mach 26 and its circumferential deviation rate is 100 meters. the df-41 is one of the longest-range intercontinental ballistic missiles in the world.

why did china choose dongfeng-31ag instead of the latest generation dongfeng-41?

military expert cao weidong:

"because the launch vehicle carried by the dongfeng-41 is much larger, and the warhead has also been greatly improved. many people think that the most advanced missile with the longest range, the most warheads, or the best performance is used to test the strength. but i think missiles like the dongfeng-31 are more representative, because the dongfeng-31 series of missiles are equipped with the largest number of troops, and they may play a greater role when used in the future.”

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generally speaking, there are four mainstream launch methods for intercontinental ballistic missiles: underground silo launch, nuclear submarine underwater launch, land-based railway mobile launch and land-based road mobile launch.

based on the pictures released by the chinese military, the outside world believes that the dongfeng-31ag uses the unsupported field launch technology of land-based highway mobile launches.

military expert cao weidong:

"china's nuclear policy is not to use nuclear weapons first. this will raise a question. if the other party uses nuclear weapons, do we still have the ability to nuclear counterattack? if after suffering the first round of nuclear strikes from the other party, in order to ensure the survival rate , it is necessary to ensure mobile launch. it cannot be fixed in the launch silo. you can use a launch vehicle, for example, it can be placed on a train, and you can also hide it in a cave and pull it out from the cave during counterattack. it can effectively improve the survivability of nuclear counterattacks.”

in addition, many professional military fans have analyzed that in this test launch, the dongfeng-31ag may have performed a terminal orbit change operation. compared with the initial trajectory, the final impact point is about 200 kilometers different.

military expert cao weidong:

"the trajectory of a general ballistic missile is a parabola. it can be accurately intercepted according to the speed and height of the missile based on the parabolic principle. it shows the world that under the conditions of any country's defense, china can still break through the defense and have the ability to change track capabilities.”

in the past, the chinese rocket force has launched dongfeng series of intercontinental missiles, mostly from eastern china, the bohai sea and other places to the gobi desert in the west, or from gansu to xinjiang. this time, the dongfeng-31ag was launched into the south pacific, about 12,000 kilometers away. its influence quickly spread out and caused a sensation around the world.

a more concrete interpretation of 12,000 kilometers is that if china's hainan province is used as the starting point, 12,000 kilometers to the south can reach the south pole, to the west it can cover the entire european continent, and to the east it is enough to cover all important cities on the west coast of the united states.

the range of 12,000 kilometers is not the highest among various types of intercontinental missiles in the world. for example, russia has the rs-28 "sarmat" which claims a maximum range of 18,000 kilometers, and the united states has the "minuteman-3" which claims a maximum range of 13,000 kilometers. wait for intercontinental missiles. however, in actual test launches, they may be limited by factors such as land area, shooting ranges, and their own detection methods. intercontinental missiles from various countries rarely conduct test launches that claim their maximum range.

military expert chen haoyang:

"launching to the sea means that it is a full-range test. what is a full-range test? some countries do not have ocean-going recovery capabilities and monitoring capabilities, and can only launch a high-speed ballistic trajectory of several hundred kilometers around themselves. 12,000 kilometers only one country can guarantee the range within its own territory, and that is neither the united states nor china.”

in order to reduce misjudgments, china notified relevant countries in advance and reiterated china's position the day after the missile was successfully launched.

spokesperson of the chinese ministry of national defense zhang xiaogang:

"we organized the intercontinental ballistic missile launch test to test the performance of weapons and equipment and the level of troop training. it is a routine military training activity, completely legal and reasonable. it complies with international law and international practices. before the launch, china not only issued an announcement to clarify the no-navigation zone "

military expert cao weidong:

"china has notified all nuclear-armed countries. this is a test. you will turn on the monitoring equipment to see if you can find me. so i think the purpose of this test is not to show who is threatened, but to show that china has this capability. "

multiple media reported that china notified the united states, france, australia and new zealand in advance, and the fact that australia and new zealand were notified was related to their proximity to the impact point.

but the reaction was mixed. singer, deputy spokesman for the u.s. department of defense, responded to the matter, "we did receive advance notice of this intercontinental ballistic missile test, and we think it is a good thing to receive the notice. this is a step in the right direction, indeed helps prevent misunderstandings or misjudgments.”

russian presidential press secretary peskov responded that it is china’s sovereignty to conduct intercontinental ballistic missile tests, and necessary information exchanges are ongoing between the russian and chinese defense ministries.

japan stated that it did not know about this action in advance, and "japan will make all necessary efforts to collect and analyze information about military activity in china."

on the occasion of the 75th anniversary of the founding of the people's republic of china, china successfully launched an intercontinental missile into the south pacific, adding a new mark to history. looking back 44 years ago, china first tested an intercontinental missile in the high seas of the pacific ocean. how did the "dongfeng 5" soar into the sky and complete its mission at that time?

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why were intercontinental missiles born?

in 1945, the united states used b-29 bombers to drop two atomic bombs on japan. from then on, mankind officially entered the era of nuclear deterrence.

china's missile development originated in the late 1950s. from the completion of "dongfeng 1" imitation of the soviet p2 missile, to the gradual completion of independent development of "dongfeng 2", "dongfeng 3" and "dongfeng 4", chinese missiles research and development has moved to a new level.

in the 1960s, intercontinental missiles were the most important bargaining chip in the game between great powers. but at that time, the only countries with intercontinental missiles were the united states and the soviet union. especially since the conflict between china and the soviet union, china's shortcoming of not having intercontinental missiles has become more prominent.

in 1965, under the chairmanship of qian xuesen, the "surface-to-surface missile development plan" was released. the plan proposed to develop short- and medium-range ballistic missiles, medium-range missiles, medium- and long-range ballistic missiles and intercontinental missiles within eight years from 1965 to 1972, commonly known as the "four bombs in eight years" plan. subsequently, countless chinese military workers worked hard to build the "dongfeng 5" intercontinental missile with a planned range of 8,000 kilometers.

at two o'clock in the morning on may 18, 1980, at the launch site of the jiuquan test base, china's first intercontinental missile "dongfeng 5" stood on the launch pad, ready to go.

military expert chen haoyang:

"china formed a large fleet of 18 ships at that time. among them were 6 051 guided missile destroyers, 4 observation ships, 2 ocean-going supply ships, and some support ships. what was the concept of 6 051 ships? at that time, 051 it is the most advanced guided missile destroyer of the chinese navy. the total number of ships in service is about 10, which means that in order to ensure this ocean launch vehicle test, half of the chinese navy was used. within a week, the united states, australia, and new zealand and japan continue to send aircraft and warships to follow and even interfere."

at 10 o'clock in the morning on may 18, 1980, with a huge roar, "dongfeng 5" rose from the desert in the northwest border of china and went straight into the sky. after half an hour of flight, the "dongfeng 5" missile crossed the northern and southern hemispheres, passed through 6 time zones, and reached the south pacific more than 8,000 kilometers away. its shooting accuracy is equivalent to hitting a target 100 meters away with a pistol. mosquito, its data cabin also accurately landed in the predetermined sea area.

at this time, unlike the tense and expectant atmosphere at the jiuquan launch site, there was a faint smell of gunpowder smoke in the south pacific waters. the 18 ships of the china ocean surveying fleet that were performing the task of recovering the missile splashdown data cabin were already distributed at the scheduled splashdown point. around.

military expert cao weidong:

"if the landing point is wrong, ships from other countries may take away our data cabin."

military expert chen haoyang:

"there were a pack of 'wolves' around, watching eagerly. at that time, china's carrier-based helicopters had just completed their formation training. the missile fell into the sea, and the data cabin immediately released dye to dye the sea water green. in full view of everyone, when the chinese helicopter took off to salvage, the united states , new zealand's helicopters also took off, and they were racing against time. if they were allowed to get there first, it would be hard to argue with them. "

the survey fleet accurately determined the specific location where the missile splashed down. fluorescent dye dyes nearby seawater emerald green. the salvage helicopter on standby in the predetermined sea area completed the salvage task of the data module in just 5 minutes and 20 seconds. from launch to flight, telemetry, communications, splashdown, and salvage of the data module, everything went smoothly on this mission.

china has therefore become the third country in the world to conduct a full-scale test of an intercontinental missile after the united states and the soviet union.

military expert chen haoyang:

"in 1980, the people's daily issued an announcement saying that china's first carrier rocket launched into the predetermined waters of the pacific ocean was successful. imagine under what circumstances the people's daily would issue an announcement at that time? for example, china's first atomic bomb explosion. this launch in 1980 was of great significance, not only for the formation of china’s own strategic nuclear deterrence capability, but also a milestone in china’s naval construction.”

on october 1, 1984, china's first-generation intercontinental missile "dongfeng 5" made its public debut at the 35th anniversary military parade of the founding of the people's republic of china.

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after "dongfeng 5", after more than 40 years of development, the dongfeng series of missiles has gradually become a large family. with its characteristics of long range, high power and high accuracy, it has become a strategic weapon for maintaining national security.

the "dongfeng" series is currently the only land-based ballistic missile series in the world that covers various types of ballistic missiles.

other countries with intercontinental missiles also have their own trump card series. russia's rs series, the united states' minuteman series, the british trident series, the french m-51, as well as north korea's mars series and india's agni series outside the "p5" countries.

under the turbulent situation, in the past two years, the five permanent members of the united nations security council have successively tested intercontinental missiles. in november last year, the united states conducted a test launch of the "minuteman 3" intercontinental ballistic missile at the vandenberg air force base in california. an abnormality occurred during the test launch and it was forced to detonate midway. the united states claimed that the mission was "safely terminated" over the pacific ocean. this was the third failed test launch of minuteman 3 by the united states in five years.

in september this year, russia test-launched the recently-in-service sarmat weapon. satellite images showed that a large crater about 60 meters wide appeared on the ground at the launch site. a serious accident occurred in the missile and silo, and the test-launch failed. .

at the beginning of this year, the united kingdom tested the "trident-2" submarine-launched intercontinental ballistic missile. the missile was supposed to land in the atlantic ocean between brazil and western africa, but it ended up falling near the launch site. this is the second time in eight years that the uk has experienced problems with its test-firing of this weapon.

in november last year, france launched a latest m51.3 strategic ballistic missile from a base in the landes region and successfully landed in the north atlantic.

military expert chen haoyang:

"in the past year or so, the five permanent members of the security council have competed to test-launch missiles, and four of them have already taken action. in the current context of intensified competition among major powers, it has become inevitable to demonstrate strategic deterrence. especially considering the failed missile tests of russia and the united states, and the danger of british launches it is a missile that has been around for many years and has a mature performance. only france has succeeded. therefore, our country's test launch is particularly important. success. the strategic deterrence signal it sends out is so strong that we know why it was launched at this time.”

military expert cao weidong:

"the reason why we are going to the sea this time is to declare to the world at this stage that china's nuclear policy has not changed, and china must maintain the strategic balance of nuclear-armed countries."

while the outside world is still discussing what kind of signal the "dongfeng" missile will send by leaping thousands of miles, on september 26, the spokesperson of the ministry of national defense emphasized that china insists on maintaining its nuclear power at the minimum level required for national security. on september 28, chinese foreign minister wang yi mentioned when attending the united nations general assembly in new york that china is the only country among the five nuclear-weapon countries that has pledged not to be the first to use nuclear weapons.

china has written peaceful development into its constitution. war is raging in the middle east, and russian and ukrainian artillery fire continues. under the complicated situation, dongfeng "express" soared into the sky, conveying the hope of peace.