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a-shares experienced an epic surge today. has your account income been "averaged"?

on september 30, all major a-share indexes surged across the board, setting a series of historical records. from the perspective of total market capitalization, according to wind data, the total market capitalization of a-shares surged by more than 7.35 trillion yuan in a single day. according to calculations by authoritative organizations, the current total market capitalization of individual investors’ holdings accounts for approximately 33%, while individual investors the actual number of stock holdings is about 220 million. based on this calculation, the average profit of individual investors is about 11,000 yuan. in the past five trading days, the total market value of a-shares has increased by more than 17.23 trillion yuan. based on the above calculation, the average profit of individual investors in five days was approximately 25,800 yuan.

faced with the epic counterattack of a-shares, foreign investors’ enthusiasm for long chinese assets has also become extremely high. an overseas hedge fund person said: "the current sentiment of foreign clients is 'abc' - 'all-in buy china'. this change has been very obvious in the past week, with hedge funds pouring in first. , long-term funds may have to increase their positions in the future.”

after experiencing an epic surge, perhaps the topic that everyone is most concerned about is: how long can this round of counterattack last?

a day recorded in the history of a-shares

today is destined to be a day recorded in the history of a-shares. stimulated by a series of major favorable policies, on september 30, the a-share market had a strong sentiment towards long capital, and major indexes soared across the board, creating a series of historical records:

1. the chinext index soared 15.36%, setting a record for a single day;

2. the science and technology innovation 50 index soared 17.88%, setting a record for a single-day increase;

3. the bse 50 index soared 22.84%, setting a record for a single day;

4. the shenzhen stock exchange component index soared 10.67%, a single-day increase set a record since the implementation of price limits;

5. in just two weeks, the csi 300 index has risen by more than 20% from its stage low, heading towards a technical bull market in one fell swoop;

6. the transaction volume of shanghai and shenzhen stock exchanges exceeded 2.59 trillion yuan, a record high;

7. within 35 minutes of the opening of a-shares, the transaction volume of shanghai and shenzhen stock exchanges exceeded one trillion yuan, setting a new record for the fastest one trillion yuan in history;

8. the "bull market flag bearer" brokerage stocks broke out collectively, with more than 40 stocks hitting their daily limit.

as of the close of trading on september 30, the total market value of a-shares was approximately 92.29 trillion yuan, a sharp increase of more than 7.35 trillion yuan that day. according to calculations by authoritative organizations, the current total market value of shares held by individual investors is about 33%, and the actual number of stock holdings by individual investors is about 220 million. based on this calculation, the average profit per individual investor on september 30 was about 11,000 yuan.

if we take the start of this counterattack as the starting point (september 24), in the past five trading days, the total market value of a-shares has increased by more than 17.23 trillion yuan. calculated based on the above caliber, the average profit of individual investors in five days was approximately 25,800 yuan.

in the hong kong stock market, all major indexes also opened higher and moved higher across the board. as of the close on the 30th, the hang seng index soared 2.43%, the hang seng technology index soared 6.7%, and the market turnover exceeded hk$500 billion, a record high. in september this year, the hang seng index rose by 17.48%; the hang seng technology index soared by 33.45%; and the hang seng state-owned enterprises index rose by 18.62%.

according to wind data, as of the close of trading on september 30, the total market value of all listed companies in hong kong reached hk$62,870.9 billion, a surge of hk$2,558 billion in a single day and more than hk$9,000 billion in a single month.

“buy big”

faced with the epic counterattack of a-shares, foreign investors’ enthusiasm for long positions is also extremely high.

an overseas hedge fund person said: "the current sentiment of foreign clients is 'abc' - 'all-in buy china'. this change has been very obvious in the past week, with hedge funds pouring in first. , long-term funds may have to increase their positions in the future.”

according to a research report by citic construction investment, since september, the activity of northbound capital transactions has increased. especially in the past week, the total transaction volume exceeded 600 billion yuan, indicating a large-scale net inflow of funds.

on september 30, goldman sachs asia ficc and equity trader and vice president fred yin pointed out in a blog that last week, the capital flow in the a-share and h-share markets was extremely active, and the total portfolio trading volume increased by 148% compared with the three-week average. %, the number of execution clients increased by 41%, and inflows reached 3.8 times the three-week average, setting a record for at least a year.

long-only investors (long-only) had a net buying amount of us$560 million, mainly in consumer and financial stocks, while hedge funds (hedge funds) had a net buying amount of us$218 million, with financial stocks performing particularly well. .

both types of investors have shown a clear "fear of missing out" sentiment, especially as the national day holiday approaches, the market enthusiasm has not weakened. foreign hedge funds have increased their efforts to chase china's large-cap stocks with strong liquidity, focusing on liquor and electric vehicle batteries. waiting sections.

fred yin said the derivatives market was also active, with hedge funds aggressively buying year-end call options on the hang seng china enterprises index, as well as upside option structures on the csi 300 and csi 1000 indexes.

how to interpret the market outlook

after experiencing an epic surge, perhaps the topic that everyone is most concerned about is: how long can this round of counterattack last?

landlord ming, china head of ubs global financial markets, said that overall, last week was indeed a relatively big turning point for china's a-share market. usually after a 20% rebound from the bottom, there will be a certain long-short stalemate, some profit-taking, and sector rotation. driven by recent strong policy signals, market expectations have changed relatively clearly, and investor confidence has also recovered significantly. the next key is to follow up on the fundamentals. in addition to the stable implementation of existing policies, it is important to further launch new policies and continue to effectively deliver positive signals.

based on the views of various brokerages, improved liquidity expectations and strengthened policy expectations have promoted a strong rebound in the market. there is still room for a-shares to rise in the future, and the profit-making effect of the market after the holiday may still be strong.

the latest monthly report released by china merchants securities pointed out that looking forward to the market style in october, the central bank has created monetary policy tools for the first time to provide targeted support for the stock market, and the improvement trend in the stock market's funding has been further confirmed, which is good for the restoration of growth-style valuations. since this year, etf funds have mastered the "style pricing power" and are expected to continue to contribute the main incremental funds in the future. at present, the concentration of csi 300 and large-cap growth style trading is at a moderate to low level, and the calendar effect shows that the winning rate and excess return rate have been relatively high in october in the past ten years. taken together, as the stabilizing growth policy further develops and the market's expectations for economic fundamentals improve, the market's growth style is expected to usher in a valuation recovery.

hualong securities research report also believes that the market in october is positive and promising: first, capital market policies have been intensively introduced, policies have improved market liquidity and activity, and market micro-liquidity is expected to improve; second, there is a solid foundation for the medium- and long-term rmb exchange rate to remain basically stable , coupled with the start of the fed's interest rate cut, the us dollar weakened, increasing the value of rmb assets, and the equity market gained attention; third, economic expectations are stable, policy measures to stimulate holiday consumption have increased, consumer data may have better feedback, and real estate policy expectations are further released consumption and investment demand are expected to drive further improvement in domestic demand and enhance market fundamental expectations; fourth, after the market has risen sharply in the short term, valuations are still reasonable, and it is in a period of medium and long-term allocation opportunities.