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core tips:

1. many theater managers have made predictions about the box office of new films during the national day season in 2024. their expectations for the box office of new films during the period are relatively conservative, and they predict that there are no blockbuster films that will exceed 1 billion in box office.

2. the current top three box office grosses (including spot screenings and pre-sales) have always been locked between the new works of three actors with traffic. but who will be the winner in the end, word of mouth is the key.

3. compared with the national day box office in the past 10 years, which is also a 7-day period, if the national day box office this year can get more than 2 billion, the box office performance will be relatively ideal.

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(kk/文)

after the box office results of the two major periods, the may day and the summer period, failed to meet expectations, now we are ushering in another major period of this year - the national day period. on september 30, three new films were released to kick off the national day season, and another seven films will be released on october 1.

judging from the box office results of the three new films on the first day of release, as of 14:37 on september 30, "volunteers: war of life and death" temporarily ranked first in the box office on that day with a box office of 15.671 million, accounting for 14.7% of the scheduled films and a high box office share of 46.3 %; although "crisis line" is temporarily ranked second in the single-day box office list, its single-day box office is only 3.609 million, accounting for 11.3% of the scheduled films and 10.6% of the box office. there is an inversion of the box office; "safety" is temporarily listed it ranked fifth in the single-day box office list, with a box office of 1.8942 million yuan. the film schedule accounted for 9% and the box office accounted for only 5.5%. the box office inversion was serious.

the total box office performance this year is still significantly behind last year. as of now, there is still a gap of 20 billion compared with last year. the only big time slots that can narrow the gap are the national day and lunar new year stalls, so the box office performance of the national day stalls is particularly critical.

the "phoenix theater manager index" invites multiple theater managers to make predictions about the box office of new films during the national day season in 2024.they have relatively conservative expectations for the box office of new films during the period, predicting that there are no blockbuster films that will exceed 1 billion in box office.

there are many types of national day movies, but it’s hard to find a hit

this year’s ten new national day films are of various genres, covering comedy, war, science fiction, animation, song and dance, crime and other genres.

pre-sales for the ten new national day films were launched simultaneously six days ago. judging from the current total box office performance (including pre-sales and on-demand screenings) of the ten new films, as of 14:37 on september 30, the top two films were both around 46 million, which were the not-yet-released " "749 bureau" and "volunteers: battle of life and death" on the first day of release, the former took the slight lead with a box office of more than 300,000; "danger line", which ranked fourth in the box office list, has been released, but its total box office has not exceeded "road to fire", which is still in the pre-sale stage, has a box office difference of more than 14 million. except for the top four, the total box office (including pre-sales and screenings) of the other six films has not exceeded 10 million, including those that have been released. "safety in and out", among which the animated film "pipilu and lu xixi: 309 darkroom" only had a box office of 203,000.

however, not all the national day films have been released yet, and the box office during the pre-sale period does not represent the final performance of the film. audiences who purchased pre-sale tickets in advance were mostly passers-by who were extremely interested in the film, as well as fans who competed for the actors to compete for the box office.

since the start of pre-sale, the top three gross box office (including screenings and pre-sales) of new national day films have been locked between the new works of three popular actors, namely zhao liying's new film "the road to fire" and zhu yilong's new film "" volunteer army: battle of life and death" and wang junkai's new film "749 bureau". starting from the evening of september 26, "749 bureau" surpassed "road to the fire", which had always been the top box office box office. on the 27th, "road to the fire" was once again overtaken by "volunteers: battle of life and death" and ranked third. name. the box office of the three films was relatively tight. but by september 28, the box office gap between "road to fire" and the previous two became wider and wider, and now the difference is more than 10 million.

at present, most viewers have not yet arranged their vacation plans and will choose to buy tickets at short notice before watching the movie. in the later period, with the release of all new national day films and the release of the film's reputation, the box office rankings will be reshuffled.

the "phoenix cinema manager index" invited a number of theater managers to predict the box office of new national day movies in 2024. judging from the box office forecasts, the box office expectations for national day movies are relatively conservative. looking back at the results of the national day period in previous years, there were blockbuster movies with a box office of over 1 billion from 2019 to 2022. in 2023, the film "sturdy as a rock" that topped the box office during the national day period also received 800 million. theater managers predicted to the "phoenix theater manager index" that the number one film at the national day box office in 2024 will only receive 600 million yuan, which will be "volunteers: battle of life and death", and the second place will be "safety". the predicted box office is 570 million. the third place "path of fire" has a predicted box office of 550 million, followed by "crisis line" 450 million, "749 bureau" 430 million, "panda project" 230 million, and "breaking bad" 180 million. . "safety" may become a dark horse at the box office and break into the top three as word of mouth ferments in the later period, while "749 games", whose quality is a mystery, will fall behind in the ranking.

the most "mysterious" film: the quality of "749 bureau" is unpredictable. wang junkai did not participate in the road show, leading to speculation

the most "mysterious" film in this national day release is the science fiction film "749 bureau" that took lu chuan eight years to complete. the film's subject matter has whetted the audience's appetite. lu chuan used his experience working in unit 749 as inspiration to write and direct the film, attracting many viewers who are interested in the mysterious bureau 749. in addition, wang junkai has a certain box office appeal. judging from the current box office performance, it is relatively strong. as of 14:37 on september 30, one day before release, the film's total box office (including screenings and pre-sales) ranked first, with 46.96 million. currently, 18.5% of the film's movie schedules were released on the first day of release, and its overall box office share is as high as 32.1%.

however, theater managers are skeptical about the film's quality. they believe that the film has been delayed for too long and was temporarily released. the quality is very worrying. they predict that the film's final box office will be 430 million. in april this year, lu chuan announced that the 8-year-old "749 game" was officially completed and will be scheduled for national day in september. however, after the trailer was released, there was less information, so it is no wonder that the industry's predictions for the film's final box office are relatively conservative. a theater manager even analyzed: "if there is a second "shanghai fortress", its reputation will soon collapse."

it is worth mentioning that on september 28, the wang junkai fans association issued an article saying, "due to schedule reasons, wang junkai [will not participate] in the road show of the movie "749 bureau". please be careful when buying tickets and pay attention to the safety of your property." on september 29 , the film held its premiere, and wang junkai showed up, but did not go to other movie theaters. triggering outside speculation. some netizens have doubts about the quality of the film. some netizens also believe that the film's release was too sudden and wang junkai couldn't schedule it.

the main theme of the war movie "volunteers 2" is the main force. there are many private events after the national day.

war-themed films have always been strong contenders at the national day box office. this year director chen kaige brings the second work in the "volunteers" trilogy series - "volunteers: battle of life and death". during the national day holiday last year, "volunteers: attack" took third place with a box office of 460 million yuan. this year, theater managers predict that "volunteers: battle of life and death" will become the main force in this year's national day movie, ranking first at the box office, with a forecast of 600 million yuan. manager liu, the theater manager, analyzed that the film’s lineup is very strong, and zhu yilong’s fans will be a bonus. in addition, the theater manager, manager xu, revealed that the film will have many exclusive events after the national day.

as of 14:37 on september 30, the film temporarily ranked first in the box office on the first day of release with a box office of 15.671 million, accounting for 14.7% of the scheduled films and 46.3% of the box office.

disaster movie pk: "safety" may become a dark horse and counterattack "danger line"

there are two disaster movies released on the same day during the national day holiday, namely "safety" and "danger line". the "phoenix cinema manager index" predicts that "safety" will become the second-largest box office film during the national day holiday season, with a box office forecast of 570 million. "crisis line" will be ranked fourth in the schedule, with an estimated box office of 450 million.

"in and out" is adapted from real events and revolves around the background of a sudden earthquake. theater managers commented that the film is expected to become a dark horse, and whether the comedy part can be accepted is the key. manager xu, the theater manager who has watched the film, believes that the film is very touching and has a relatively high box office limit. manager liu, the theater manager, maintains a wait-and-see attitude. he believes that although the film's creator is well-known, he is not that well-known. if the reputation is good, the film schedule will gradually increase. he hopes not to be too bitter.

based on the box office performance of summer and mid-autumn festival movies, as well as comments from netizens, some viewers now have a certain resistance to movies with realistic and heavy themes.in addition, there are no actors in the starring team of the film who are very "box office". therefore, judging from the current box office situation, the box office is relatively bleak. as of 14:37 on september 30, "safety" temporarily ranked fifth on the single-day box office list on its first day of release, with a box office of 1.8942 million yuan, accounting for 9% of the scheduled films and only 5.5% of the box office. the box office is upside down. more serious. currently, the film's total box office (including screenings and pre-sales) ranks only seventh among new films in the schedule. if word-of-mouth fermentation occurs later, it may be possible to reverse the situation.

"danger line", which was released on the same day as "safety" and is also a disaster movie, did better at the box office. as of 14:37 on september 30, "danger line" temporarily ranked second in the single-day box office list on its first day of release. however, the single-day box office was only 3.609 million, accounting for 11.3% of the scheduled films, which is higher than "safety". the box office accounted for 10.6%, and the box office was inverted. the film's total box office still hasn't surpassed "path of fire", which is still in the pre-sale stage, with a box office difference of more than 14 million between the two. the "phoenix cinema manager index" predicts that the film's final box office will be 450 million.

"danger line" tells the story of a hijacked flight. the theater manager analyzed to phoenix entertainment that the film has a unique genre and is an action shootout, which is more in line with the audience's needs for a fun movie. moreover, andy lau has a good reputation as a passerby and may be the audience's first choice. however, there are also theater managers who question the quality of the film. after all, this film has been completed in 2021, and it is now released three years later.

ge you and jackie chan compete in comedy films: the subject matter is outdated and it can’t attract box office even if you brush your face

directed by ning hao + starring ge you + comedy, jackie chan + action movie, these two lineups are full of buffs and extremely attractive when placed in front of the previous generation of audiences. however, this year's national day box office total (including screenings and pre-sales), ge you's new film "breaking good" ranked eighth and last, and jackie chan's new film "panda project" only ranked sixth. "phoenix cinema manager index" analysis believes that,both films have the problem of being too old-fashioned and not in line with the tastes of today's young audiences. moreover, the appeal of the two veteran actors has also been greatly reduced.

as of 14:37 on september 30, "breaking good" ranked 8th among the ten new films in the total box office (including screenings and pre-sales), with a box office of only 3.3551 million yuan in seven days of pre-sale. on october 1, the film premiered with only 4.9% of the film's film schedules, still inverted at the box office, and only accounted for 2.7% of the overall box office. in the following days, it became even more bleak, with the film's film placement rate being less than 4%.

many theater managers in the "phoenix cinema manager index" commented on the film, saying that the plot was too old-fashioned and could not resonate with young audiences. ge you's box office appeal was also far less than before, and there would not be more films scheduled. the film's final box office is predicted to be 180 million.

jackie chan, who just suffered a disastrous box office failure with "legend" in the summer season, has brought another comedy action film "panda project" to the national day season. although this film combines elements of cute pandas, the box office is still not optimistic.this may be another jackie chan film that continues to consume box office appeal.

the relatively big advantage of this film is that jackie chan's films focus on family fun and are more suitable for all ages to watch. jason, the theater manager, analyzed the film after watching the film. however, the box office of "legend" was only 80 million, less than 100 million, which to a certain extent lowered the expectations of theater managers for the film. manager xu, the theater manager, said that the future of "panda project" is also worrying and believes that it is a very outdated film. as of 14:37 on september 30, the film's box office and pre-sale box office was 7.2184 million. the first day of release on october 1 was 8.3%, and the overall box office accounted for 5.7%, which was an inversion. the film scheduling rate in the following days is about 4% except for the second day of release, which is 5.9%.

revenge movie "the road to fire" hits the audience's taste, but the director's skills need to be tested

the crime theme is superimposed with revenge + fight elements, and it also stars xiao yang and zhao liying. "road to fire" meets the characteristics of a fun movie that audiences love to watch. as of 14:37 on september 30, the film's total box office (including screenings and pre-sales) ranked third among the ten new films in the national day season, with a box office of 29.7109 million. it has not yet been released. currently ranked fourth is " "crisis route" catches up. on october 1, the film's first day of release had 18.3% of the film's film schedule, and the number of films in the next seven days was also more than 20%.

the "phoenix cinema manager" index predicts that the film's box office will eventually reach 550 million, ranking third. the theater manager believes that the film's story about the anti-trafficking incident is very relevant to the audience's emotions. the current publicity and distribution data are very good, and they are relatively optimistic about the film's box office performance. however, there are also theater managers who believe that the quality of the director's work is unstable and hope that this film can have the quality of "anti-gangster".

this year, after experiencing successive disappointments in the may day, summer, and mid-autumn festivals, the film industry has faced an extremely difficult moment. previously, theater managers had predicted that this year’s national day schedule would not be too optimistic. judging from the current box office predictions of theater managers, the total box office will be around 3 billion. in the past 10 years, the box office of the 8-year national day period, which is also a 7-day period, has exceeded 2 billion in only three years. if this year's national day box office can get in the range of 2 billion to 3 billion, the results will be relatively ideal.

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the phoenix cinema manager index brings together many first-line cinema chain workers across the country to evaluate and predict the film market trend from multiple dimensions. from the perspective of cinema professionals, we provide the industry with real, fresh, and valuable reference data, striving to become a bellwether for cinema trends, and also provide reference for audiences when choosing to watch movies offline.