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on september 30, wind data showed that within 35 minutes of the opening of a-share trading, the transaction volume of the shanghai and shenzhen stock markets exceeded 1 trillion yuan, setting a new record for the fastest trillion yuan in history. as of the close of trading, the transaction volume of the three cities of shanghai, shenzhen and north china exceeded 2.60 trillion yuan, setting a record for the highest transaction amount in history. since the "september 24" new deal, the shanghai stock exchange index has performed five consecutive positives, rising by more than 21% for five consecutive trading days.

introduction

one|| this wave of market conditions made the staff of securities firms call themselves "crazy busy." the trading software of many brokerages experienced technical failures due to the influx of large orders.

二|| in the past week, with the implementation of many policies such as the "9·24" new deal, the liquidity of the stock market has been significantly improved. last week, the transaction volume of shanghai and shenzhen stock markets exceeded one trillion yuan in a row.

三|| there is news in the industry that a certain fund manager had originally written a letter of apology to the head office (the fund’s agency) because his stock position was too high. but after a round of rapid market growth, the report was changed to an experience sharing session.

4|| driven by recent strong policy signals, market expectations have changed relatively clearly, and investor confidence has also recovered significantly. the next key is to follow up on the fundamentals. in addition to the stable implementation of existing policies, it is important to further launch new policies and continue to effectively deliver positive signals.

“full warehouses celebrate the holidays and welcome the bull market.”

"when the bull market comes, you can really buy anything and make money even while lying down."

"both those born in the 1990s and those born in the 2000s have opened accounts. come on, this wave is going crazy!"

on september 30, nearly 20 a-share related topics were on the hot search list. “someone made a profit of 520,000 early in the morning when a-share prices skyrocketed.” “an online article author made 3 million yuan on the stock market and stopped updating immediately.” “stock investors said they had made 20 points and decisively filled their positions.” etc. a-share investors are reluctant to leave the last working day before the holiday. some investors even said: "don't take a holiday, let this market continue."

"obviously before the opening of the market today, i was thinking about cutting my losses and getting back my money, so i hurriedly evacuated, but i still increased my position in the afternoon." an investor born in 1995 told the economic observer network on the afternoon of september 30.

on september 30, wind data showed that within 35 minutes of the opening of a-share trading, the turnover of the shanghai and shenzhen stock markets exceeded 1 trillion yuan, setting a new record for the fastest trillion in history. as of the close of trading, the transaction volume of the three cities of shanghai, shenzhen and north china exceeded 2.60 trillion yuan, setting a record for the highest transaction amount in history.

the entire a-share market is boiling. as of the close, the three major indexes continued to strengthen, with the shanghai stock exchange index rising more than 8% and closing at 3336.50 points. since the "september 24" new deal, the shanghai stock exchange index has performed five consecutive positives, rising by more than 21% for five consecutive trading days. the shenzhen component index rose 10.67%, and the chinext index rose 15.36%. in terms of sectors, almost all sectors have surged across the board, and more than 30 industry etfs (traded open-end index funds) such as securities etfs, wine etfs, and semiconductor etfs have reached their daily limit. in addition, more than 10 science and technology innovation 50 etf and mass entrepreneurship etf funds achieved 20% daily limit.

brokerage trading software crashes again

this wave of market conditions made the staff of securities firms call themselves "crazy busy." the trading software of many brokerages experienced technical failures due to the influx of large orders.

"why can't i buy this stock? is it a system problem?"

in the early trading on september 30, some investors reported that their stock trading software was unable to make bank-securities transfers and transactions within a short period of time.

for example, some netizens posted that the market interface of the golden sun app of guosen securities (002736.sz) was blank and unable to trade. an investor called guosen securities customer service for consultation. the customer service said that the trading software crashed due to the order being too large. similar problems are currently occurring at other brokerage firms. investors can dial 95536 to place orders over the phone.

some netizens said that many brokerage apps, including china merchants securities (600999.sh), citic securities (600030.sh), and flush (300033.sz), were unable to log in, but they later returned to normal.

in this stock market carnival, not only old investors are actively participating, but even some people who have never set foot in the stock market are eager to try.

some netizens said that two of their classmates who had never traded in stocks actually opened accounts, and even the cleaning lady was considering entering the market.

economic observer network noticed that in order to seize the opportunity of this wave of stock market rise, gf securities (000776.sz), northeast securities (000686.sz), etc. have published articles on the official wechat platform saying "7*24 hours fast account opening", or attached is the detailed online account opening procedure.

in addition to additional staff on duty during the holidays, there are alsosome brokerage business departments have spontaneously announced "no closing" activities without the group's request. they can also consult and handle business during the holidays to attract customers.

in addition, brokerages are also busy interpreting the strength of policies through live broadcasts and other forms. the number, views and comments of stock market-related live broadcasts and short videos have increased significantly compared with the past.

from september 24th to 27th, cicc wealth management headquarters and branches broadcast more than 20 live broadcasts and short videos. according to relevant sources from cicc wealth management, the number of viewers of market-related live broadcasts from one of its branches increased by more than 400% year-on-year.

relevant sources from galaxy securities said that there has been a significant increase in new investors, with new account openings in the latest week increasing by 106.06% compared with the previous week, and the increase in new online account openings is even more prominent.

qu fang, an investment consultant at wanlian securities, told economic observer that his sales department staff have helped many customers reactivate their securities accounts in recent days; there are almost constant calls from customers asking how to reactivate their securities accounts.

qu fang said that the brokerage business department is strengthening team building, including the building of a team of marketing managers. in a bull market, securities firms strengthen the construction of marketing teams, which will firstly have the effect of getting twice the result with half the effort in business development; secondly, this will help strengthen market publicity and carry out risk warnings to customers.

in the past week, the stock market has experienced a surge that is rare in recent years. the increase in related stock indexes has refreshed many historical records, stimulating the enthusiasm of investors and a large amount of funds rushing into the market.

data from the industrial and commercial bank of china shows that the bank’s net value of changes in investors’ bank-securities transfer funds soared to 7.04 on september 27, significantly higher than the 0.66, 2.15, 1.4, and 4.4 in the previous four trading days. the weekly average was 3.13, a record high in 2021. a new high since the beginning of the year. the bank-securities transfer index reflects the situation of investors entering the market with real gold and silver. the rapid rise in the index reflects the current high market expectations for a rebound in the stock market.

securities and liquor sectors surged

first of all, the brokerage sector has ushered in a rising trend.

as of the close of trading on september 30, in addition to the suspended guotai junan (601211.sh) and haitong securities (600837.sh), oriental fortune (300059.sh), changjiang securities (000783.sz), first venture securities (002797.sz) ), soochow securities (601555.sh) and other brokerage stocks all hit their daily limits.

oriental fortune's transaction volume exceeded 30 billion yuan, ranking first among securities firms in terms of transaction volume.

in the past week, with the implementation of many policies such as the "9·24" new deal, the liquidity of the stock market has been significantly improved. last week, the transaction volume of shanghai and shenzhen stock markets exceeded one trillion yuan in a row.

wanhe securities stated that it is optimistic about the growth potential brought by the entry of medium and long-term funds into the market for securities companies' asset management, brokerage business, and institutional business, as well as the business space opened up by vigorously developing equity public funds for the wealth management business of securities companies.

kaiyuan securities pointed out that with the continued amplification of market trading volume and the low base, the performance of securities firms is expected to improve significantly year-on-year. at the same time, the structural monetary policy tools created by the central bank will introduce incremental funds into the market. the two structural monetary policy tools include swap facilities for securities, funds, and insurance companies, and stock repurchases and refinancing of listed companies, with initial quotas of 500 billion yuan and 300 billion yuan respectively. the favorable policies and the inflow of funds are conducive to continuously boosting market confidence, and are expected to play an important supporting role in the marginal recovery of securities companies' fundamentals.

in addition, liquor stocks also continued their general upward trend. shanxi fenjiu, luzhou laojiao, gujing gongjiu, shuijingfang, shede liquor, jiugui liquor, etc. have reached daily limit for three consecutive trading days.

ping an securities' research report pointed out that after the release of a series of new policies, confidence in the liquor sector has rebounded and valuations have continued to recover. with the subsequent implementation of policies, the fundamentals of liquor are also expected to continue to recover.

among related etfs (traded open-end index funds), many etfs in the securities sector and the wine sector, such as the wine etf (512690), securities etf (512880), etc., have reached daily limit.

the fund manager's phone was "buzzed with calls"

"like a wild horse running wild," this is how the economic observer network described today's stock market conditions when it interviewed hu hao (pseudonym), an equity fund manager at a public equity institution in beijing, at the close of trading on september 30.

there is news in the industry that a certain fund manager had originally written a letter of apology to the head office (the fund’s agency) because his stock position was too high. but after a round of rapid market growth, the report was changed to an experience sharing session.

when the economic observer network asked many fund managers for confirmation, they all laughed and said they did not know the authenticity of this matter, but everyone's mentality is changing.

hu hao said at the company's internal morning meeting today that the market has risen too sharply and it is difficult to judge the market outlook. it is necessary to continue to observe policy advancement and market changes.

not only hu hao, this rapid reversal of the market that exceeded almost everyone's imagination shocked many senior market participants.

an investment researcher from a large public equity institution posted in a circle of friends during the lunch break today, "it is never rationality that corrects irrationality, but the opposite of irrationality." use this to warn yourself not to be dazzled by the rapid rise in prices.

hu hao also said that this wave of market conditions came too fast and completely exceeded his team’s expectations. this once again proves that the investment market is not as rational as imagined.

today, when the a-share market is booming and the market is red, hu hao's leader came over during the session and asked him: why did it rise so much today, and how long can it last? hu hao said he didn't know how to answer. in addition, hu hao’s phone calls were also “blow-up” by some customers, friends and even family members. he temporarily added after-hours internal reviews, report writing and institutional roadshows.

hu hao said that he did not expect that the last trading day before the holiday would be so busy and dramatic.

today, hu hao did not perform any operations on the funds he manages. during the lunch break, colleagues did not rush to the canteen as usual. instead, they gathered in groups to lament the market performance, or to call back the calls they missed because they handed in their mobile phones during the day.

hu hao revealed that most of his positions are concentrated in core assets and financial sectors. under the general rising market, the net value of the products he manages today should increase by more than 8%.

however, hu hao lamented that the rapid rise and fall of the market in recent years has been very testing for people. sometimes when it falls, some people doubt the level of the fund manager, and the fund manager also doubts himself; now that the stock market has risen, he will also doubt himself, because of this the change was not within one's expectations.

after chatting for a while, hu hao said that there were still many messages and roadshows waiting for him, so he hung up the phone.

in addition to the investment research department, the sales department is also so busy that it feels hot underfoot. sales staff with etf (traded open-end index fund) layouts are busy sending out information about their own xx etfs with daily limit. large-scale public offerings that focus on active equity products are actively sending out market attributions and outlooks that various institutional customers and channels need, and thanks to "in the most difficult time, we persisted in configuring our products, and now we have finally waited for the rose of time..." etc.

however, the other side of the coin is public-funded institutions that mainly focus on fixed-income products. as debt bases face adjustments after the introduction of the new deal, fixed-income investment researchers and salespeople are trying to reassure customers and actively communicate whether they can redeem them...

the same thing is that in such a rare "fast bull" market situation, public offering practitioners are busy working overtime on the last trading day before the holiday.

key to the market outlook

on september 30, an investor posted an article on a financial website: this wave of market prices has "emptied out". can he still get on board again?

it is not difficult to find that behind the surge in the stock market, what everyone is most concerned about is: how long can the market rise this time?

after a series of new policies were released, the market rose rapidly for five consecutive days. are a-shares still cheap now? cicc believes that the current valuation of the a-share market is already at a relatively extreme position. the forward valuation of the csi 300 index is around one standard deviation of the historical bottom. it has obvious investment appeal both horizontally and vertically; in terms of transactions and behavior the common bottom-biased feature in history has also appeared. in the early period, the a-share turnover rate calculated based on free circulation market capitalization was at a historical bottom-tier level of around 1.5%.

cicc believes that the state council information office press conference on september 14 clearly released positive signals to stabilize the economy, stabilize the market, and stabilize expectations, bringing about a significant improvement in investors' risk appetite. the political bureau meeting of the central committee of the communist party of china on september 26 made clear statements on policy responses that investors are more concerned about, especially fiscal policy. it also paid high attention to the capital market, which has a positive impact on the market and is expected to further stabilize investor confidence. under the current environment, the upward trend of the a-share market is expected to continue.

hualong securities research report believes that the market in october is positive and promising: first, capital market policies have been intensively introduced. the politburo meeting proposed efforts to boost the capital market, vigorously guide medium and long-term funds into the market, support mergers and acquisitions and reorganizations of listed companies, and promote the reform of public funds. policies have improved market liquidity and activity, and market micro-liquidity is expected to improve; secondly, there is a solid foundation for the mid- to long-term rmb exchange rate to remain basically stable, coupled with the start of the fed's interest rate cut, the weakening of the u.s. dollar has increased the value of rmb assets, and the equity market has gained attention; thirdly, economic expectations are stable, consumer data may have good feedback as more policies and measures to stimulate holiday consumption are expected, and real estate policies are expected to further release consumption and investment demand, which is expected to drive further improvement in domestic demand and enhance market fundamental expectations; fourth, the market is relatively large in the short term after the sharp increase, the valuation is still reasonable, and it is in a period of medium and long-term allocation opportunities.

commenting on the recent market hot spots, dong ming, head of china of ubs global financial markets department, said: last week, the three major financial management departments and the politburo meeting released a series of favorable policies, which greatly exceeded market expectations in terms of form and content. the market positive feedback was also given in response. overall, last week did mark a clear turning point for the entire china a-share market.

looking forward to the market outlook, the landlord clearly stated that usually after a 20% rebound from the bottom, there will be a certain long and short stalemate, some will take profits, and there will also be sector rotation.driven by recent strong policy signals, market expectations have changed relatively clearly, and investor confidence has also recovered significantly. the next key is to follow up on the fundamentals. in addition to the stable implementation of existing policies, it is important to further launch new policies and continue to effectively deliver positive signals.if more policies are introduced later, not only in terms of content, but also in form, they should send a firm and confident signal to the market in a language that the market can understand. at the same time, we look forward to the follow-up of fiscal policies and substantial support and care for private enterprises and entrepreneurs.

(the authors of this article are cai yuekun, hong xiaotang and niu jue)