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on the last trading day of september, a-shares were in a frenzy and topped the list of hot searches on weibo. the market was booming and there was a collective explosion! some investors lamented: "today i witnessed history again!" "i have never seen such a market situation as a stock investor for 10 years." "no need to hesitate, just hold shares for the holidays."

on september 30, the three major a-share stock indexes rose favorably. the gem index made a strong move in the afternoon, once rising by more than 16%. more than 5,300 stocks in the two cities rose, more than 2,300 stocks rose by more than 10%, and 400 stocks exceeded the daily limit. all industry sectors are in the red. the transaction volume of the two cities exceeded 2.59 trillion yuan, setting a new record for the highest transaction volume in history set on may 28, 2015.

intraday trading was active, with many stock etfs setting single-day trading records in the afternoon. the "big mac" huatai-pineridge shanghai 300 etf's transaction volume exceeded 21.5 billion yuan, breaking the single-day transaction record. in addition, the transaction volume of china science and technology innovation 50 etf, e fund gem etf, southern csi 1000 etf and southern csi 500 etf reached 12.4 billion yuan, 11.5 billion yuan, 11.3 billion yuan and 10 billion yuan respectively.

as of the close, the shanghai stock exchange index rose 8.06%, the shenzhen component index rose 10.67%, and the chinext index rose 15.36%. the transaction volume of shanghai, shenzhen and north cities was 2,611.5 billion yuan. sectors such as big finance, big consumption, and huawei's industrial chain performed particularly strongly, with all brokerage stocks hitting their daily limit; software development, semiconductors, and sub-new stocks continued to be active.

recently, the a-share market has surged, rising from below 2,700 points to above 3,300 points in just a few trading days. from the recent low to the present (i.e., september 18 to september 30), the shanghai stock exchange index has risen by 23.39%, and the shenzhen stock exchange index has risen by 23.39%. the component index rose by 31.89%, and the chinext index rose by 41.68%. market analysts believe that this market is a rare market that combines the three factors of upward revision of profit expectations, falling risk-free interest rates and rising risk appetite, so it is not a simple oversold rebound, but a reversal.

based on the views of multiple institutions, various policies have continued to exert their force recently, which has effectively improved the market's expectations for mid- to long-term fundamentals, and the a-share market has ushered in a positive allocation window. after the recent rapid rise in the market, policy signals are still in the process of emerging, and the current market rise is still expected to continue. the earnings of a-share listed companies are expected to reach an inflection point. on the one hand, the recovery of real estate is expected to promote the restoration of residents' net assets, thereby promoting consumption and increasing the profits of listed companies; on the other hand, incremental fiscal policies will support domestic demand. market risk appetite will usher in a significant recovery, and a-shares will enter a new round of upward range.

everbright securities pointed out that current capital market policies still focus on shareholder returns and promoting the active entry of medium and long-term funds into the market, which may be beneficial to the market performance of debt-like assets that can provide stable returns. in the coming period, the successive implementation of policies may be an important main line of market transactions. it is recommended to pay attention to pan-real estate infrastructure-related assets (liquor, real estate, building materials) that are expected to benefit from the implementation of policies. in addition, the rebound in market risk appetite will help repair the valuation of the growth sector, and some stocks in the tmt sector may have bottom-up opportunities.

from the perspective of industry performance, as of the close of trading on september 30, the industries with the largest increases in the range from august 30 to september 30 (shenwan level 1) were real estate, non-bank finance, and the computer sector. in addition, theme concepts continued to perform in september, with state-owned enterprise reform, huawei hongmeng, private network communications, financial technology and other concept sectors all seeing large increases.

market analysis points out that in the past ten years (2014 to 2023), it is a high probability that the index will rise when the market receives major policy stimulus. the shanghai composite index hit a recent low on september 18 and hit the bottom. rebound. looking forward to october, the market has experienced successive adjustments in the previous period and the stimulation of recent policies, and the upward recovery trend of a shares has begun. according to statistics from 2005 to 2023, the directions with high probability of rising prices in october are securities companies, banks, insurance, communication services, automobile manufacturing, metal products, home appliances, etc. it is expected that the subsequent market rebound will continue, and the stabilization of market trends requires attention to expected changes in the fundamentals of listed companies. the policy increase combined with the continuous improvement of the system under the current capital market policy dividend will help to continue to activate the capital market and once again boost investor confidence.