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there is a high possibility that israel will directly attack iran in october, especially if hamas’ election situation is improving.

2024-09-30

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there is a high possibility that israel will directly attack iran in october, especially if hamas’ election situation is improving.

shao xufeng

based on what was discussed in the previous article,let’s prejudge again. it is very likely that israel will directly attack iran in october, especially if hamas’ election situation is improving:

israel is determined to defeat the iranian theocracy this time, and it does not want to miss this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity - israel attacks the houthi armed forces on a large scale. on the one hand, it continues to eliminate threats (in fact, due to the distance, the houthis pose little threat to israel) ), on the one hand, they are practicing a long-distance direct attack on iran:

if trump takes office, he will of course support israel in doing so. if harris takes office, there will be great resistance to attacking iran.for example, when the democratic party clinton was in office, she kept asking israel to make concessions and so on. biden also kept preventing israel from taking a strong stance, which might lead to wasted efforts.

so,if hamas's election situation improves in october, israel may take action earlier.

if hamas is elected in early november, the possibility of israel attacking iran during the handover period between biden and hamas will be greatly reduced (biden will leave the white house on january 20 next year). in order to maintain its future relationship with hamas government relations.

if trump's election situation improves in october, israel will try not to "cause trouble."to allow trump to be successfully elected;if trump is indeed elected in early november, israel may start attacking iran in advance, and also caused some trouble for the democratic party,after trump came to power, he mainly focused on the indo-pacific strategy, israel also has to get things sorted in advance.

in short, the release of the results of the us election in early november is a key point. before then, if hamas’s election is good and trump’s election is bad, israel is very likely to directly attack iran. on the one hand, it must take action in advance; it is also stimulated to see if trump can be elected; then, if hamas is elected, israel will restrict its actions, and if trump is elected, it will feel free to attack.

in short,the most likely scenario for israel to directly attack iran is when hamas does well in the election in october, and the other is when trump is elected president in november and takes office in the white house on january 20 next year.

now, since trump has unlimited support for the emperor, it seems that hamas is indeed doing better in the election, so,israel is likely to start early in october.

the biden administration should also have relevant plans, which are generally as mentioned above.

in addition, if israel attacks iran, it will use medium- and long-range ballistic missiles and cruise missiles on the ground, air fighters equipped with air-to-ground cruise missiles, precision-guided bombs, dolphin submarines and saar frigates (these are not big, but the firepower is very fierce, and the missiles very advanced, it is an all-round three-dimensional attack launched by the sea, land, air and submarine together with heavy armor and light cavalry.

the israeli interception system is currently the most intensive and efficient in the world. it is equivalent to the arrow-3 jointly developed by the united states and the standard 3-block2a jointly developed by the united states and japan. it can efficiently intercept intercontinental ballistic missiles outside the atmosphere and float them outside the atmosphere. flying hypersonic missiles are also deployed with the thaad system (which can intercept intercontinental and medium-range missiles about to enter the atmosphere at the top edge of the atmosphere), david's sling (the interception altitude is slightly lower, but extremely efficient), and a large number of the patriot system, as well as the barak system, a large number of iron dome systems (the world's number one rocket interceptor), etc.

israel can basically stop iran's attacks, but israel's attacks...

it has also been said many times that if the operation is launched, the large-scale ground entry into iran may be organizations and people from pakistan, afghanistan, etc.

basically the same as above.

public name: shao xufengyu

prepared by: shao xufeng media

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