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text |li jian

the iphone 16 and mate xt trifold have been released for some time, and the emotional consumption of industry insiders, players and consumers has already passed.

from a rational point of view, as two products released simultaneously in one day, as well as the situation of apple and huawei behind them on the battlefield of smartphones, it is necessary for the "digital intelligence research institute" to re-examine them with everyone. why does huawei insist on releasing a three-fold screen mobile phone? is the iphone 16 really useless against the background?

to be honest, there are not many technical barriers to a tri-folding screen mobile phone, but huawei can achieve a body thickness of 3.6mm, control the weight of the whole machine within 300g, and achieve mass production, which shows huawei's good technical strength.

however, after the development of folding screens in the past few years, it is not the achievement of any one company. in the view of "digital intelligence research institute", it is more like an important form for all chinese smartphone brands to move towards high-end and differentiation. huawei just collaborated with upstream and downstream "crowdfunding" in advance to produce such a product.

the progress is visible to the naked eye. as a foldable screen mobile phone, its core competitiveness is an experience-focused product consisting of a screen, hinge, structural parts and battery. in terms of screens, huawei’s mate globally, domestic flexible screen suppliers such as boe have overtaken samsung's flexible screens in many fields.

after this historic initiative, honor magic v series, oppo's find n series, vivo's x series, and even xiaomi's mix flagship series all used domestic flexible screens, and the suppliers were boe, csot, etc.

in addition, ultra-thin flexible glass screen technology (hereinafter referred to as "utg") glass technology has been monopolized by samsung-owned companies until 2020. it was not until september 2021 that my country's domestic utg glass broke through the mass production from 0 to 1. the mate xt tri-fold released by huawei this time uses triumph's utg material, which is said to not break even after 400,000 consecutive high-strength folding times.

in the mim process on hinges and structural parts, china has embarked on a path of differentiation from the international market. the hinge shapes are currently mainly divided into u-shaped and water-drop shapes. samsung folding screens are mainly u-shaped, while my country focuses on breakthroughs in the water-drop shape. this time, some of the hinges of huawei's three-fold mate xt are provided by some companies in guangdong such as dafu technology.

therefore, technically, folding screen technology is quite mature. from the perspective of the supply chain, there are basically no technical barriers upstream and downstream. therefore, in recent years, there have been dozens of models on the folding screen mobile phone market.

more importantly, breakthroughs in supply chain and technology have driven down the price of folding screens. when folding screens first came out a few years ago, the price was more than 15,000 yuan. now the price of mainstream large folding screen mobile phones has dropped to the price range of 6,000 yuan.

moreover, as a mobile phone market segment, folding screens are relatively niche. when foldable screen phones were first released, everyone might still feel a little bit novel about it. but now, foldable screen phones are no longer popular.

so, why does huawei still bet on a three-fold release of mate xt?

"digital intelligence research institute" believes that huawei's candy bar machine should ignore the chip manufacturing process, but in this way, the candy bar machine will not be very competitive. therefore, huawei must open up new battlefields to maintain the competitiveness of its products. in this way, even if the risk of the three-folding mobile phone mate xt is extremely high, huawei has to take this "risky step". therefore, regardless of whether mate xt can achieve profitability, it is always a good thing to release this product and occupy a leading position in the "tri-folding" field.

in addition, as a niche market, what supports the high premium of folding screen mobile phones is the "pretentious" social attributes and luxury attributes. as the supply chain and technology mature, on the one hand, prices will return, and on the other hand, consumers will definitely pay attention to whether the product is practical. if there are frequent leaks and hinge problems, not many people will pay for it.

therefore, it is feasible in the short term to raise the price of a three-fold mate xt mobile phone to the price range of 20,000 yuan or even 30,000 yuan. but in the long run, if the problems of impracticality and durability cannot be solved, folding screens will always be a niche market.

huawei knows this, but still wants to release this three-fold phone. it must have its own thinking and confidence. according to the "digital intelligence research institute", in the global folding screen market, only samsung and huawei are currently in a state of slight profit, while other manufacturers are mostly losing money and following the trend to make money. it is worth mentioning that xiaomi reduced the price of mix fold 4 by 2,000 yuan not long after it was launched.

although huawei is now making a slight profit, its tri-folding phones still face huge risk costs in the future. frequent repairs make dealers reluctant to put out the folding screen. once put out, users may try it a few times and it may become a defective product.

therefore, it is a bit early to say whether the three-fold mate xt will be successful.

in comparison, the launch of the iphone 16 series was unsatisfactory. the latest chips, the latest apple smartphones, the latest systems, the latest camera buttons and the latest colors. how do you feel after getting the physical product more than half a month after the launch? , that’s all that’s left.

in fact, the phenomenon of apple’s “toothpaste-like innovation” has been mentioned for many years. but the result is that apple's sales have reached new highs every year, its stock price has reached new highs, and its market value has exceeded us$3.5 trillion.

apple has been developing "steadily". as the world's most valuable technology company, apple may be reluctant to carry out major technology migrations or change its product structure, so it is not interested in technological breakthroughs with poor profitability and risks. therefore, we have never made a curved screen or a folding screen. with four candy bar models updated every year, apple has captured most of the global market share.

we can say that the iphone 16 is "lying flat" in its comfort zone and is unwilling to make changes. but in other words, it is already no. 1 in the world. every 0.001 improvement is a big step for players at the waist and tail. therefore, from a consumer perspective, it is not surprising that apple has not had any major innovations.

therefore, regarding the direct showdown between huawei and apple on september 10, most users have an attitude of "boring and disappointed with apple, and worried and looking forward to huawei."

to be honest, huawei has indeed attracted a lot of attention with its three-fold mate xt, and many overseas media have rarely reported on this three-fold mobile phone.

but don’t underestimate apple. apple’s real advantage is its ecosystem, including the combination of software, hardware and ai. if huawei's experience in hongmeng next can be more optimized and its ai implementation can be smoother, and it can be supported and endorsed by the mate 70 series, it will have the courage to challenge apple's ecosystem. the current three-fold mobile phone is nothing more than a bright firework.

the real competition is yet to come.