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how to operate on the last trading day before national day?

historical experience shows that due to early hedging by some investors, the performance of the a-share market before the holidays is often relatively flat. after the holidays, with the return of pre-holiday hedging funds, the market will often experience a more positive rebound. however, the market performance before the national day this year was different from usual. against the background of vigorously increasing policies to stabilize the economy, the a-share market continued to strengthen, and the shanghai composite index rebounded from 2,700 points to above 3,000 points.

in the past week, under the "combination punch" of a package of heavy-weight favorable policies, the a-share market staged a super counterattack. from september 24 to september 27, in just 4 trading days, the shanghai composite index rose by 12.32%, regaining the 3,000-point mark, and the gem index rose by 23.19%. on september 27, it even increased by 10%. the largest single-day increase in history.

the counterattack has also ignited the enthusiasm of investors. it is reported that there has been a sharp increase in new account opening investors in recent days, and the number of account openings processed by securities companies has increased significantly. for this reason, china clearing worked overtime on sunday to provide support for securities companies. in addition, data from the industrial and commercial bank of china show that the bank’s net value of changes in investor bank-securities transfer funds on september 27 soared to 7.04, significantly higher than the 0.66, 2.15, 1.4, and 4.4 in the previous four trading days. the weekly average was 3.13. it hit a three-and-a-half-year high since 2021.

however, today is about to usher in the last trading day before the national day holiday. after last week’s continuous counterattack, facing the upcoming national day holiday, investors are faced with a classic question: hold stocks for the holiday or hold currency for the holiday? during the national day holiday, the a-share market will be closed for seven days. at the same time, there are still trading opportunities for hong kong and us stocks.

many analysts told reporters that the current a-share market valuation is low, with a high cost performance and safety margin, and with the federal reserve officially starting an interest rate cut cycle, the constraints of external pressure on domestic monetary policy are expected to weaken, and domestic policies may be more proactive. . in addition, overseas investors may become optimistic about the a-share market. therefore, holding shares for the holidays may be a good choice.

nearly 70% of private equity investors are optimistic about the post-holiday market

recently, stimulated by multiple good news, a-shares have risen strongly from the lows during the year, and market sentiment has begun to improve significantly. however, as the national day holiday approaches, whether to celebrate the holiday by holding stocks or holding currency has become a topic of concern to many investors.

the suggestions and attitudes of private equity institutions can often provide investors with certain references. the survey results of the private equity ranking network show that 65.82% of private equity investors recommend holding full or heavy positions for the holidays. they believe that the market has revealed its bottom shape, and under the background of favorable policies and improved sentiment, the market may start to rebound at any time; 25.32% of private equity investors it is recommended to have a neutral position during the holiday. they believe that the news and external market uncertainty will be high during the long holiday; another 8.86% of private equity investors recommend short positions or holding currency for the holiday, believing that the external recession is expected to become stronger, the domestic inflection point is not yet clear, and the market will still be the pattern of shock and bottoming continues.

regarding the market situation after the national day, the survey results show that 69.23% of private equity investors are optimistic and believe that driven by favorable policies, the market is more likely to stabilize at a low level and gradually rebound; 23.08% of private equity investors hold a neutral attitude and believe that although the market downside risks are limited, but there are still certain difficulties in turning around; 7.69% of private equity investors are cautious, believing that it will take a process for market sentiment to pick up, and that the market may adjust after the holidays.

regarding specific investment directions, the survey results show that 42.86% of private equity investors are optimistic about technology growth sectors such as huawei's industrial chain, smart driving, and computers; 28.57% of private equity investors are optimistic about low-valuation blue chips represented by high dividends; 19.05% of private equity investors are optimistic about early adjustments. deeper white horse style sectors such as consumption, medicine, and new energy; 9.52% of private equity investors are optimistic about strong cyclical sectors such as coal, oil, nonferrous metals, and gold that have experienced strong fluctuations during the year.

holding shares for the holidays may be a good choice

recently, monetary policy, real estate policy, and capital market policy have been implemented in a multi-pronged manner, and market risk appetite has improved significantly, creating opportunities for a market rebound. in particular, monetary policy support tools and market value management guidance policies have positive significance in alleviating capital market liquidity pressure and short-term funding pressure.

"the overall market has been weak in the past two years. this mainly depends on future expectations for the economy and negative market sentiment. macroeconomic policies have also been introduced one after another, which has not brought about a complete turnaround opportunity. the current policies have paved the way for future monetary and fiscal policies and opening up space is expected to usher in the introduction of more powerful policies in the future and bring positive signals to the fundamental reversal trend," he jinlong, general manager of youmili investment, told a reporter from the securities times.

"the introduction of multiple favorable policies shows that the country's major financial management institutions have reached a consensus on solving capital market issues. at the same time, the introduction of this batch of policies has exceeded market expectations and injected great confidence into the market." liu yan, chairman of anjue assets, accepted securities a times reporter said in an interview that these policies will undoubtedly help reverse the downward trend and boost the performance of the stock market. in particular, the introduction of this batch of policies fully releases a positive signal from the central government to maintain the stability of the capital market and promote high-quality economic development. this further strengthens the bottom of the market and is very likely to become the starting point of a new round of market trends.

fang lei, deputy general manager of xingshi investment, believes that the current valuation of equity assets is at a low level. the national securities a index erp is currently around 4.4%, which is similar to the historical market low level, indicating that equity assets have a high mid- to long-term cost performance. , this round of policy-driven sentiment recovery is expected to continue. judging from the statement of the regulatory agency, a-shares may usher in at least 800 billion yuan of new funds in the future. that is to say, a-shares may usher in three types of new funds in the future, namely securities with an initial operation scale of 500 billion yuan, funds, insurance company swap facilities, an initial 300 billion yuan stock buyback, holdings, and refinancing, as well as stabilization funds under study. although the implementation of specific policies will be affected by the wishes of shareholders and institutions, the newly established policy tools are an institutional breakthrough that reflect the regulatory agencies’ attention and emphasis on the stock market. the signals are of great significance and are expected to increase various types of investments. investors have confidence in the a-share market, and the increase in confidence may also drive the entry of some otc funds.

mingze investment fund manager gao anjing said that as the federal reserve cuts interest rates, market liquidity is expected to improve; at the same time, domestic policy space has opened up, and further economic promotion policies were introduced at the september 24 meeting. the core points include lowering the deposit reserve ratio, the 7-day reverse repurchase rate, existing mortgage interest rate, and the creation of new monetary policy tools have gradually accumulated positive factors corresponding to the a-share market. from a sector perspective, the space for valuation restoration is expected to open up.

gao anjing suggested that under the background of favorable policies, sentiment may improve, and the market has the opportunity to start a rebound. it is recommended to combine heavy or full positions with the perspective of in-depth research on individual stocks to celebrate the holidays.

look at these directions

regarding the specific optimistic directions, hu kunchao, investment manager of cheese fund, said that he continues to be optimistic about the pharmaceutical and biological, consumer and internet sectors, because the medium and long-term industry space is relatively clear, with stable and rigid demand, and there are many outstanding leading companies with industry pricing power. the performance itself has the characteristics of steady growth. against the background of the general correction of the market as a whole, the valuation has gradually become reasonable or even undervalued. when the world enters a downward interest rate cycle, it will have certain benefits for the industry's fundamentals and funding.

by sorting out policies and economic fundamentals, and combining asset valuation performance, fang lei suggested paying attention to two aspects of investment opportunities. the first is value growth stocks with mass consumption as the main demand. the profitability of the consumer sector has taken the lead in returning to positive growth. during the policy period, demand in the consumer industry is expected to be boosted. combined with the stock price adjustment experienced in the past three years, the current valuation of the consumer sector is highly cost-effective. the second is technology growth stocks that use technological breakthroughs as the driving force for development. this type of asset has a large space for mid- to long-term development, and many bottom-up alpha investment opportunities are brewing. the valuation performance is greatly affected by market expectations and market sentiment. as policies work to boost market sentiment, this the valuation of similar assets is also expected to be revalued.

yuan huaming, general manager of huahui investment, believes that industrial upgrading is a long-term need for china's economic development, and the structural opportunities represented by ai in the technology growth sector deserve continued attention. consumption and low-valuation large blue chips have been fully adjusted in the early stage, and the risk-return dimension has strong investment appeal. in addition, from the perspective of leading employment and promoting stable economic growth, these directions should be the focus of policy efforts, and short- and medium-term opportunities are relatively prominent.

he jinlong believes that during the market rebound, based on policy expectations, structural opportunities and market styles are mainly reflected in the flexible trading opportunities of growth sectors stimulated by interest rate cuts and rebound valuation repair opportunities brought by oversold varieties. including thematic catalytic opportunities of electronics, ai, trade-in and other related new productivity with elastic growth; structural opportunities in home appliances, automobiles and short-term real estate brought by prosperity and policy support; non-ferrous metals and public utilities that are cyclical and in prosperous industries business opportunities and other opportunities are expected to rebound and recover under the catalytic effect of improved liquidity and policies, thus having a money-making effect and attracting more incremental funds.