news

한어Русский языкEnglishFrançaisIndonesianSanskrit日本語DeutschPortuguêsΕλληνικάespañolItalianoSuomalainenLatina

[in this adjustment, the original estimated base value was 157 million. after adjustment, it is now reduced by 818,000, a change of approximately -0.5%. ]

in the early morning of september 19th, beijing time, the federal reserve announced that it would lower the target range for the federal funds rate to 4.75% to 5%. this was the first rate cut in four years and the second time since the target rate was reported in a range form on december 16, 2008. the first interest rate cut that announced the start of the interest rate cut cycle started with 50 basis points. when the epidemic broke out in 2020, because it was already in the first interest rate cut channel of 25 basis points that started on august 1, 2019, the fed used 50 basis points each. two drastic cuts were made to 1 basis point and 1 percentage point, and the lower limit was reduced to zero in one step. however, this kind of interest rate cut in response to major emergencies has no reference value. looking at the previous interest rate cuts before the target interest rate was reported in the form of a range, we will find that since the emergence of stagflation in 1982, interest rates have been cut by 25 basis points on september 20, 1984, july 7, 1989, and july 6, 1995. the first analogous drops of 50 basis points occurred on january 31, 2001 and august 18, 2007. the latter two times corresponded to relatively obvious economic weakness.

interest rate cuts focus on labor market conditions

reading the speech of federal reserve chairman powell, it is not difficult to find that the main focus of this interest rate cut is not on the price level, but on the labor market conditions in the context of inflation that has not yet fully reached the target. it is based on the labor market data of the past year, especially the labor market data of the past year. the unemployment rate is now nearly a percentage point higher than where it was at the start of 2023, at 4.3%. the federal reserve believes that this shows that employment has significantly cooled down from the previous overheated state. although job opportunities are still stable, the previous crazy hiring pace has slowed down, and the vacancy-to-unemployment ratio has returned to the pre-epidemic range.