a new round of bull market begins with a bang
2024-09-29
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thunder breaks out from the ground, and a new round of bull market kicks off this week. we have repeatedly said in the past few weeks that the double bottom pattern of the market has been initially established. with the technical conditions in place, and driven by a series of policy combinations this week, a new round of bull market finally broke out on september 24. the energy of the market it is really surprising that this week’s major indexes all experienced weekly increases of more than 10%. the shanghai composite index recorded its largest weekly increase in 18 years, and the chinext index recorded a weekly increase of more than 20%, the largest weekly increase in history. after the sharp rise, the monthly k lines of the major indexes all turned positive, and they recovered almost 4 months of losses in just one week. what’s even more amazing is that the k-line in the third quarter also turned into a positive line, and the historical pattern of the shenzhen component index ending with five consecutive negative k-lines in the quarter remains unchanged.
01
major indexes surge this week
the market started on the morning of september 24, when at a press conference held by the state council information office, the central bank, china securities regulatory commission and others released a series of major policies, including lowering the deposit reserve ratio and policy interest rates, lowering existing mortgage interest rates and unifying the minimum down payment ratio for mortgages. , create new policy tools, support the development of the stock market, etc., pan gongsheng, governor of the people's bank of china, said that the first phase of swap facility operations will be 500 billion yuan, and the scale will be expanded in the future depending on the situation. pan gongsheng also said that the stabilization fund is "under study".
the shanghai and shenzhen stock markets rose sharply that day. the shanghai composite index jumped more than 20 points higher, leaving a gap of less than 1 point from 2760.48 to 2761.37 points, and filling the gap of 2765.64 to 2756.56 points that appeared on september 9. in the end, the shanghai composite index rose by 114.21 points, regaining the 2800-point mark and closing at 2863.13 points, an increase of 4.15%, the largest single-day increase in more than 4 years. the shenzhen component index rose 352.32 points to close at 8435.7 points, an increase of 4.36%. the gem index regained the 1,600-point mark and closed at 1,615.32 points, an increase of 5.54%. the number of stocks rising that day reached 5,167, and nearly 100 stocks reached their daily limit.
shanghai composite index weekly k-line chart
after a 100-point chang yang established the start of the bull market, all indices jumped short and opened higher on the 25th, and the market fluctuated violently that day. the political bureau meeting of the cpc central committee on the 26th once again clearly stated that it is necessary to boost the capital market, "vigorously guide medium and long-term funds to enter the market, and open up the blocking points for social security, insurance, financial management and other funds to enter the market." affected by this, the market pulled sharply again in the afternoon. the shanghai composite index rose another hundred points to regain the 3,000-point mark in one fell swoop. the shanghai composite index closed at 3,000.95 points, an increase of 104.64 points, or 3.61%. the shenzhen component index closed at 8916.65 points, an increase of 378.92 points, or 4.44%. the gem closed at 1714.14 points, an increase of 4.42%.
shenzhen component index weekly k-line chart
at the same time, the three major indexes all experienced gaps for the first time. the shanghai composite index was 2863.15-2889.01 points, the shenzhen component index was 8435.71 points-8505.64 points, and the gem index was 1616.07-1625.66 points.
gem index weekly k-line chart
obviously, this is a breakout gap.
the market jumped short and opened high again on friday. due to the influx of large amounts of funds affecting the trading system, the shanghai stock exchange had almost no transactions for almost an hour in the morning. the shanghai stock exchange said: after the opening of the stock bidding transaction, the transaction confirmation was unusually slow, and it is investigating the relevant reasons. conduct troubleshooting. at noon, it was announced that the market had gradually returned to normal. in the end, the shanghai composite index finally reported at this week's highest point of 3087.53 points, an increase of 2.89%, and a gap of 3000.95-3017.45 points appeared. the shenzhen component index closed at 9514.86 points, an increase of 6.71%, leaving a gap of 8916.8-9100.77 points. the gem index reached a maximum of 1919.79 points that day, an increase of 12%. after that, it fell back and finally closed at 1885.49 points, an increase of 10%, leaving a gap of 1716.01-1751.33 points.
csi 300 index weekly k-line chart
02
the quarterly k-line of the shenzhen stock exchange component index ended its 5 consecutive negative streaks
this week, a-shares became the most beautiful market in the world and set a series of new records.
the shanghai composite index was still at 2,700 points last week. this week it not only broke through the half-year line and the annual line, but also recovered the most important 3,000-point mark in one fell swoop; the shenzhen component index recovered the 9,000-point mark, and the gem index recovered the 1,800-point mark. the sse component index and gem index also broke through the half-year line and annual line, which is the first time in 2 years.
from the weekly k-line, the shanghai composite index rose as high as 12.81% this week. in the past 20 years, the shanghai composite index has rarely increased by more than 10% on a weekly basis. only at the end of 2006, the shanghai composite index had a weekly increase of 14.16%. this week set the largest weekly increase in 18 years. . the shenzhen component index rose by 17.83% this week, the largest weekly increase in 28 years since april 1996. the gem index rose as much as 22.71% this week, which was the first time in history that the weekly increase exceeded 20%.
the surge at the end of september also changed the monthly k-line and quarterly k-line. at present, the monthly k lines of major indexes have all turned into positive lines. as of friday, the shanghai composite index, shenzhen stock exchange component index, and gem index rose by 9%, 14%, and 19% respectively in september. although there is still one trading day, the monthly k lines the positive closing of the line can basically be confirmed, and in just one week it has regained the lost ground of the previous four consecutive months of decline. at the end of august, we said that the double bottom pattern of the weekly k-line and monthly k-line of the chinext index had appeared, and we were waiting for confirmation of the rebound in september. now it has indeed rebounded. it can be said that after this week's surge, all indexes have the double bottom pattern has been confirmed, and a new round of bull market has begun.
the most surprising thing is the quarterly k-line. what i have been most concerned about in recent months is the quarterly k-line of the shenzhen stock exchange component index, because in the history of the shenzhen component index, there have been 4 consecutive quarterly k-lines that were negative, but never six consecutive negative lines. just last week, the shenzhen component index fell nearly 9% in the third quarter. the author thought that it would be difficult to turn the quarterly k-line into a positive line in 6 trading days. in this way, there will be six consecutive negative k-lines in the quarter for the first time, and the market will not start until the fourth quarter. . unexpectedly, in just one week, the third quarter was turned into a positive line. as of friday, the shenzhen stock exchange component index rose by 7.53% in the third quarter of this year, ending the previous quarter's k-line with five consecutive negative lines. the historical pattern of the end of the 5 lianyin period remains unchanged.
this week’s market trends show that nothing is impossible in the stock market, and it also shows that historical laws play a huge role. we have said that the bull market will be late, but it will not be absent. once the bull market comes, it will be so earth-shattering and popular. the shenzhen stock market turnover on friday reached 965.4 billion yuan, close to the highest single-day turnover in history.
gold coast studio
author | lian jianming
editor | lu jiahui
