2024-09-26
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chinese assets explode!
the continued catalysis of major policy benefits has led to a massive increase in chinese assets. on the evening of september 26, chinese assets surged, including chinese concept stocks, chinese asset etfs, ftse china a50 index futures, hang seng index futures, and rmb exchange rate.
this evening, chinese assets once again received two pieces of good news. first, the central financial office and the china securities regulatory commission jointly issued the "guiding opinions on promoting the entry of medium- and long-term funds into the market", which focused on three measures: continuously optimizing the capital market ecology, vigorously developing equity public funds, and focusing on improving the supporting policies and systems for the entry of various types of medium- and long-term funds into the market; second, the latest statement of the central bank. the people's bank of china held a video conference of the entire system on the afternoon of the 26th. the meeting emphasized the need to speed up the release of financial incremental policy measures and implement various policy measures one by one.
after a series of major favorable policies were introduced, foreign institutions have become increasingly optimistic about the outlook for chinese assets. foreign institutions including goldman sachs, ubs, and morgan stanley have all expressed varying degrees of optimism.
surge across the board
on the evening of september 26, chinese assets surged, among which chinese stocks, chinese asset etfs, ftse china a50 index futures, hang seng index futures, and the rmb exchange rate all soared.
specifically, after the opening of the u.s. stock market, chinese stocks collectively surged. as of press time, the nasdaq china golden dragon index soared more than 12%, hitting a new high since may; tal education group soared more than 30%, beike soared more than 23%, jd.com soared more than 14%, pinduoduo soared more than 11%, xpeng motors soared more than 10%, and alibaba soared more than 7%.
chinese asset etfs in the us stock market opened higher and ended higher, with the gains expanding. the 3x long ftse china etf-direxion rose 25%, the 2x long sse china internet stock etf-direxion rose more than 24%, the 2x long sse 300 etf-direxion and the 2x long ftse china 50 etf-proshares rose nearly 17%, the kraneshares china overseas internet etf rose 12%, and the china large cap etf-ishares rose more than 8%.
the ftse china a50 index futures expanded its overnight trading gains to 3%, setting a new high since august 2023.
the hang seng index futures continued to rise in the night session, now up 2.7% to 20,671 points. the hang seng index closed up more than 4% today.
the offshore rmb exchange rate against the u.s. dollar rose above the 6.99 mark, surging more than 450 points during the day and currently trading at 6.9874.
on the news front, the political bureau of the cpc central committee held a meeting on september 26 to analyze and study the current economic situation and deploy the next economic work. the many important signals released by the meeting have attracted much attention from the market.
the meeting stated that it is necessary to issue and use long-term special national bonds and local government special bonds to better play the role of government investment in driving growth. it is necessary to reduce the deposit reserve ratio and implement a strong interest rate cut.
the meeting stressed the need to promote the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize, strictly control the increase in commercial housing construction, optimize the existing stock, improve the quality, increase the loan issuance for "white list" projects, and support the revitalization of existing idle land.
the meeting pointed out that efforts should be made to boost the capital market, vigorously guide medium- and long-term funds into the market, and clear the bottlenecks for social security, insurance, and financial management funds to enter the market. it is necessary to support mergers and acquisitions of listed companies, steadily advance the reform of public funds, and study and introduce policy measures to protect small and medium-sized investors.
two major favorable surprises
this evening, chinese assets once again received two pieces of good news.
first, the central financial and economic affairs commission and the china securities regulatory commission jointly issued the "guiding opinions on promoting the entry of medium- and long-term funds into the market" (hereinafter referred to as the "guiding opinions"), which focused on proposing three measures: continuously optimizing the capital market ecology, vigorously developing equity-based public funds, and focusing on improving the supporting policy systems for various types of medium- and long-term funds entering the market.
the "guiding opinions" propose that in order to effectively enhance the enthusiasm and stability of institutional investors such as insurance funds and various types of pension funds in participating in the capital market, insurance funds, various types of pension funds and other institutional investors are allowed to participate in the private placement of listed companies as strategic investors in accordance with the law.
the guiding opinions clearly proposed to "establish and improve a long-term assessment mechanism of more than three years for medium- and long-term funds such as insurance funds and various pension funds". by building an assessment system that connects multiple levels such as investment management institutions, investment managers, and product portfolios, and establishing and improving a management system that is compatible with long-term assessments, it will help reduce the impact of short-term market fluctuations on the investment performance of medium- and long-term funds, promote various types of medium- and long-term funds to better practice the concept of long-term investment and value investment, and better play the role of the capital market as a "stabilizer" and "ballast stone".
the second is the latest statement of the central bank. according to the official website of the people's bank of china, on the afternoon of september 26, the people's bank of china held a video conference across the system to study and implement the spirit of the meeting of the political bureau of the central committee on september 26, and to make every effort to accelerate the implementation of recent financial incremental policy measures. pan gongsheng, secretary of the party committee and governor of the people's bank of china, attended the meeting and delivered a speech. the meeting emphasized that the meeting of the political bureau of the central committee made a profound analysis of the current economic situation and made clear arrangements for the next step of economic work. the people's bank of china system must act quickly, go all out, and fully implement it. it is necessary to speed up the issuance of documents on financial incremental policy measures and implement each policy measure item by item. it is necessary to strengthen departmental coordination, set up relevant working groups, and work together across the system to effectively promote the sustained recovery of the economy and the high-quality development of finance.
foreign investors are collectively bullish
after a series of major favorable policies were introduced, foreign institutions have become increasingly optimistic about the outlook for chinese assets. foreign institutions including goldman sachs, ubs, and morgan stanley have all expressed varying degrees of optimism.
in its latest strategy report, goldman sachs recommends investors to tactically invest in chinese stocks. goldman sachs said that the recent measures show that policymakers are paying attention to economic growth and the market, which is enough to catalyze a round of policy-induced rebound. the current market tactical recovery conditions similar to april 2024 are in place. before the real estate problem is resolved, the market is dominated by trading opportunities, and it is recommended to buy shareholder return themes in terms of strategy. in addition, goldman sachs believes that hong kong stocks have stronger earnings revisions than a-shares.
du meng, deputy general manager of morgan asset management china, believes that "a series of recent meetings reflect the government's emphasis on the economy and capital markets. investors are also beginning to look forward to the implementation of more targeted and effective policies, and investment sentiment is gradually warming up. in the early stages, it often shows a highly elastic oversold rebound. in the long run, high-quality companies may show sustainable upward space. we believe that the change in sentiment may push the market from the previous excessive pessimism to a relatively rational pricing framework. excellent companies whose valuations have been at a relatively bottom area in the previous period may gradually usher in value restoration."
morgan stanley's latest china equity strategy shows that the central bank's latest move should help improve investor sentiment and liquidity, and drive positive reactions from both onshore and offshore markets in the short term. both the onshore a-share market and the offshore market are expected to react positively to this development, and may lead to a tactical rebound in the short term, or even outperform relative to emerging markets (em).
wang tao, head of asian economic research and chief china economist at ubs, predicts that the government will introduce more effective fiscal support measures in the coming months to stabilize economic growth.