2024-09-26
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on september 24, the three major financial management departments released a series of important information at the state council information office press conference, which triggered market sentiment. many foreign institutions said that this policy "combination punch" has a significant boosting effect on both economic fundamentals and the stock market. driven by various favorable factors, now may be a good time to reinvest in the chinese stock market.
on september 24, the three major financial management departments released a series of important information at the state council information office press conference, which triggered market sentiment. many foreign institutions said that this policy "combination punch" has a significant boosting effect on both economic fundamentals and the stock market. driven by various favorable factors, now may be a good time to reinvest in the chinese stock market.
“the most comprehensive easing since 2015”
with the release of a series of favorable policies, some responsive overseas funds took the lead in increasing their holdings of chinese assets. ruilian investment said that its china a-share active etf listed on the new york stock exchange received significant capital inflows. another foreign investment banker said that on the day the policy was released, a-share consumer and high dividend sectors were bought heavily by overseas hedge funds.
zhang xiaomu, an equity fund manager at fidelity fund management (china) co., ltd., believes that the central bank's reduction of reserve requirements, interest rates, and existing mortgage rates, as well as the creation of new policy tools to support the development of the stock market, have a positive effect that is not limited to providing support for the liquidity of real estate and the stock market. from a deeper perspective, this move has also made a good start in reversing the downward trend in china's money flow rate. in particular, if the relevant policies on the stock market are smoothly implemented, they will be able to activate some idle or idle funds through the stock market as a medium, thereby improving china's effective money flow rate.
"this policy 'combination punch' has a positive effect on both economic fundamentals and the stock market. in terms of economic fundamentals, we still need to observe whether real estate and consumption can stabilize. for the stock market, the role of the policy is to repair overly pessimistic expectations and restore market valuations to a relatively normal level. the rmb exchange rate has continued to appreciate in recent days, and it is expected that northbound funds may begin to flow back, and the a-share capital situation is expected to improve." said morgan stanley fund.
"the policy released by the central bank on the 24th exceeded market expectations. it can be said that this is the most comprehensive easing policy since 2015. although individual measures did not exceed expectations, the overall easing force was greater than our forecast. the comprehensive package is clearly aimed at restoring market confidence." zhu haibin, chief economist of jpmorgan china and head of economic research for greater china, commented.
zhao yaoting, global market strategist for asia pacific (excluding japan) at invesco, predicts that the government may need to introduce more stimulus measures on the supply and demand sides in the future to change market sentiment and boost the economy.
institution: a-shares may outperform the entire emerging market
from the current point of view, foreign institutions believe that from the perspective of policy and valuation, now is a good time to increase holdings of chinese stocks.
morgan stanley's chief equity strategist for china, ying wang, said in her latest commentary that the people's bank of china's unexpected policy support measures will help improve investor sentiment and liquidity, and promote positive responses in onshore and offshore markets in the short term. the scale and long-term sustainability of the rebound will depend on the bottoming out of macroeconomic recovery and corporate earnings growth.
wang ying believes that market sentiment is expected to gather in the short term, and it is expected that both china's onshore and offshore markets will see a tactical rebound, and a-shares may outperform the entire emerging market.
bank of america analysts believe that the series of measures introduced by the regulators will immediately provide liquidity to the market, especially for the a-share market. "we expect the market to obtain new liquidity from banks and non-bank financial institutions, and if the market performs well and lasts long enough, the return of retail investors and overseas investors may further help stabilize the market."
liu jinjin, chief china equity strategist at goldman sachs, told a reporter from shanghai securities news that the 300 billion yuan stock buyback and special refinancing are expected to continue the recent strong buyback momentum in the onshore and offshore stock markets. he believes that investors will continue to trade chinese equity assets "tactically" and are optimistic about the performance of the theme of "enhanced shareholder returns."
wang zonghao, head of china equity strategy research at ubs, said that the joint press conference held by financial management departments sent a positive signal, which will help boost market confidence and asset prices. this series of measures is expected to bottom out market sentiment in the short term. the implementation of subsequent policies and the financing costs of credit tools may be the focus of investors' attention. he believes that considering the potential incremental capital inflows, the increase in the scale of stock repurchases, and the further improvement of corporate governance, the high dividend sector may benefit.
"now may be a good time to reinvest in the chinese stock market. in the face of more support measures introduced by the government, investors can consider allocating chinese stocks at the current level," said zhao yaoting.