2024-09-25
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the "policy combination punch" of lowering the reserve requirement ratio, lowering interest rates, and lowering the interest rates on existing mortgage loans has ignited the performance of chinese assets and the rmb exchange rate has soared.
in today's early trading, the offshore rmb recovered the 7.0 mark against the us dollar, the first time since may last year.
at a highly anticipated press conference yesterday, pan gongsheng, governor of the people's bank of china, announced a reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and policy interest rate, which would lead to a decline in market benchmark interest rates; a reduction in existing mortgage interest rates and a unified minimum down payment ratio for mortgages; and the creation of new monetary policy tools to support the stable development of the stock market.
during the q&a session, pan gongsheng also focused on responding to the market's concerns about the trend of the rmb exchange rate. pan gongsheng said that the monetary policies of major economies have been adjusted recently, and the pressure on the depreciation of the rmb exchange rate has been significantly relieved. the fed's 50 basis point interest rate cut is the first interest rate cut after the interest rate hike cycle in the past few years. the monetary policies of major economies have entered a cycle of interest rate cuts, and the momentum of the appreciation of the us dollar has weakened. with the convergence of the domestic and foreign monetary policy cycle differences, the external pressure on the basic stability of the rmb exchange rate has been significantly reduced.
pan gongsheng further analyzed that the exchange rate is influenced by multiple factors. from the perspective of external factors, due to the differentiation of economic trends, geopolitical changes such as the us election, the uncertainty of the external environment and the trend of the us dollar still exists. from the perspective of china's domestic situation, the rmb exchange rate still has a stable and solid foundation. at the macro level, the economic stabilization and improvement will further consolidate growth. the relatively strong monetary policy introduced by the people's bank of china this time will help support the economy and promote consumption and investment.
pan gongsheng reminded that market participants should view exchange rate fluctuations rationally, enterprises should focus on their core businesses, the people's bank of china's exchange rate policy stance should be clear and transparent, and it should adhere to the decisive role of the market in the exchange rate market, strengthen expectation guidance, form unilateral consistent expectations in the foreign exchange market, and maintain the rmb exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level.