"the possibility of a more intense conflict between lebanon and israel cannot be ruled out"
2024-09-23
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on the 22nd local time, hezbollah in lebanon announced that in response to israel’s "repeated attacks on lebanon", hezbollah launched "dozens of missiles" including "fadi-1" and "fadi-2" missiles at israel in the early hours of the same day.
according to media reports, hezbollah has not previously used what it calls the "fadi-1" and "fadi-2" missiles, which have a maximum range of 80 kilometers and 105 kilometers respectively. this is the longest-range strike by hezbollah in lebanon into israel since the outbreak of the current round of the israeli-palestinian conflict in october last year.
△lebanon's "square" tv website: lebanon's hezbollah released a video detailing the "fadi-1" and "fadi-2" missiles launched by the organization in its strike against israel earlier on the 22nd.
on the afternoon of the 22nd local time, hezbollah in lebanon held a funeral for two important members, aqil and wahbi, who were killed in the israeli air strike on the southern suburbs of beirut on the 20th.
naim qassem, the number two figure in hezbollah, said at the funeral that hezbollah has entered a new phase of fighting with israel, an "open war of liquidation," and that hezbollah is fully prepared to deal with all military options.
△ screenshot of the report from the middle east news website
the israeli army issued a statement on the 22nd saying that from the early morning of the 21st to the 22nd, the israeli army successively carried out air strikes on more than 400 hezbollah targets in southern lebanon and north of the litani river, destroying thousands of rocket launchers. it is reported that this is the largest air strike launched by the israeli army on lebanon since the temporary border conflict between lebanon and israel broke out on october 8 last year.
△ screenshot of the report from the israel times website
israeli prime minister benjamin netanyahu issued a brief statement on the 22nd, saying that he was determined to allow people evacuated from northern israel due to the security situation to return as soon as possible. therefore, in the past few days, israel has launched a series of "unimaginable attacks" against hezbollah in lebanon.
israeli defense minister galant said during a visit to the israeli air force command and control center that lebanon's hezbollah "has begun to have a certain understanding of the israeli army's ability to launch attacks" and that israel will continue to take action against hezbollah.
israel defense forces chief of staff halevy made a statement to the media, saying that the israeli army killed hezbollah's top military commander aqil on the 20th, and carried out air strikes on hundreds of military targets in the following days in order to send a clear message to hezbollah that israel has the ability to strike anyone who threatens israel.
△the israeli times website reported: israel defense forces chief of staff halevy (left) threatened on september 18 that israel "still has many capabilities that the israeli army has not yet used" and said that the country "is on high alert both offensively and defensively."
li zixin, assistant researcher at the china institute of international studies, analyzed in an interview with a reporter from china central radio and television's global information radio that israel's intensified crackdown on lebanon's hezbollah is related to its own consistent security policy on the one hand, and the current conflict situation in the gaza strip on the other.
first, israel has always regarded hezbollah in lebanon as the most important and realistic security threat in its surrounding areas. israel has been on guard against and fighting hezbollah in lebanon for decades.
second, after the sudden escalation of the current round of israeli-palestinian conflict, one of the three main military goals set by israel is to change the security environment around it. the main way to achieve this goal is to launch large-scale strikes against major military organizations around israel, including hezbollah in lebanon.
third, there are some differences in public opinion in israel regarding the gaza war. the war has dragged on for nearly a year, and israel hopes to reach an agreement with relevant regional organizations including hamas as soon as possible. netanyahu cannot meet the public's expectations on these issues, so he needs to find a new breakthrough point to demonstrate the effectiveness and necessity of his policies. in netanyahu's view, attacking hezbollah in lebanon is an effective entry point.
according to foreign media reports on the 22nd, in response to israel's recent intensification of military strikes against lebanon's hezbollah and the series of communication equipment explosions in lebanon that caused a large number of casualties, lebanese prime minister najib mikati accused israel of launching a "multi-dimensional war" against lebanon.
li zixin believes that the possibility of a more intense conflict breaking out between israel and the lebanese hezbollah, or even the israeli army launching a ground offensive against lebanon, cannot be ruled out.
since june this year, tensions in the israel-lebanon border area have continued to escalate. both israel and lebanon's hezbollah have deployed large numbers of troops and weapons on the border between the two countries. objectively speaking, there are indeed conditions for a large-scale military conflict between israel and lebanon.
at the same time, it is clear that israel is actively escalating tensions between the two countries and intends to further push the war against lebanon to a new level. if the israeli army wants to thoroughly and effectively strike at the military organization of hezbollah in lebanon, ground military operations are essential. in the foreseeable future, israel will increase its offensive against hezbollah on the ground battlefield, and the probability of military operations to force hezbollah to retreat north of the litani river, at least in southern lebanon, is relatively high.
once such military action breaks out, regional tensions will be seriously escalated, and this round of israeli-palestinian conflict will also see the largest-scale spillover. a series of risks, including humanitarian disasters and refugee crises, may be intensified, which is extremely detrimental to the overall stability of the region.
source: global information radio "live world"
reporter: ci xiaoning, zhao bing, dong jingjing
editor: yang nan
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