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"longmao", subscription "halved"! well-known big v buys moutai at the bottom

2024-09-23

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against the backdrop of a continuous decline in wholesale prices, the number of people applying for subscription to "longmao" imoutai has been halved.

according to imoutai data, the total number of people who subscribed to the 53-degree, 500ml "dragon moutai" today was about 2.3792 million. according to multiple media reports, the number of people who subscribed to the 53-degree, 500ml "dragon moutai" was about 120,000 less than the day before, and more than 50% less than the 5 million people at the beginning of this year.

while the number of subscription applications was "halved", the wholesale prices of "longmao" and feitian moutai continued to fall. the latest data on wine prices today showed that on september 22, the wholesale price of 2024 feitian moutai loose bottles was 2,270 yuan/bottle, down 30 yuan from september 21; the wholesale price of "longmao" original boxes was 2,550 yuan/bottle, down 20 yuan from september 21.

in addition, kweichow moutai's stock price also continued to hit new lows, once falling below the 1,250 yuan mark. in order to boost market confidence, kweichow moutai announced on the evening of september 20 that it plans to invest 3 billion to 6 billion yuan of its own funds to repurchase shares for cancellation.

the number of people applying for “longmao” was halved

imoutai data shows that the total number of people who applied for the 53-degree, 500ml "longmao" today is about 2.3792 million.

at the beginning of this year, when longmao was first listed, there were more than 8.5 million people who subscribed to it. compared with the data at that time, the number of people who subscribed to longmao has dropped by more than 70%. and if compared with the average of about 5 million people at the beginning of the year, the total number of people who subscribed to it has also been "halved".

however, with almost no arbitrage space, the winning rate of "dragon moutai" subscription on imoutai is still only about 0.59%. some analysts pointed out that although there is no arbitrage, the "authenticity" function of imoutai is still a major advantage.

at the same time, the wholesale prices of "longmao" and feitian moutai are also continuing to fall. the latest data on today's wine prices show that on september 22, the wholesale price of 2024 feitian moutai was 2,270 yuan/bottle, down 30 yuan from september 21; the wholesale price of "longmao" in boxes was 2,550 yuan/bottle, down 20 yuan from september 21.

this is not the first time that the price of feitian moutai has loosened during the peak season. around the dragon boat festival this year, the price of feitian moutai also saw a rapid decline. the wholesale price of feitian moutai in a box also fell below 2,400 yuan per bottle, and the lowest price of loose bottles of feitian moutai was close to 2,000 yuan per bottle.

in order to boost the price performance of the terminal market, kweichow moutai has taken many measures. it is understood that in order to stabilize product prices, kweichow moutai issued two policies in june, namely, canceling the delivery of large boxes of 12 bottles of feitian moutai, and the policy of unpacking original parts may be cancelled; at the same time, the delivery of 15-year-old moutai and premium moutai was suspended. subsequently, the wholesale price of feitian moutai original boxes and loose bottles rebounded briefly.

industry insiders believe that moutai is the benchmark of the liquor industry, and its wholesale price changes have implications for the liquor industry. it is reported that the current round of moutai wholesale price decline is related to the cooling of liquor consumption demand during the mid-autumn festival. now, as the wholesale price of moutai continues to fall, the price offered by scalpers to recycle moutai has become the current price.

the stock price once fell below 1,250 yuan, and a well-known novelist bought the bottom

along with the wholesale price of moutai, the share price of kweichow moutai also fell. on september 19, the share price of kweichow moutai fell to 1,245.83 yuan, breaking the 1,250 yuan mark and setting a new low. on september 20, although the company's share price rebounded and closed up 0.23% at 1,263.92 yuan, it was still below the 1,300 yuan mark.

as the stock price continued to fall, the well-known novelist zijin chen posted a message on the social platform on september 18, saying that he had bought 500 shares of moutai at the bottom. the transaction bill showed that zijin chen spent more than 630,000 yuan on this bottom-fishing.

zijin chen also shared his investment logic. "growth stocks have a pe of 15 to 25 and a dividend rate of more than 3%, such as moutai; stable performance stocks have a pe of less than 10 times and a dividend rate of at least 6%, such as sinopec. it is difficult to value stocks with declining performance expectations. for small stocks, the valuation will be discounted, but the elasticity of small stocks is still very large, so buy them in a dispersed manner. this is my main focus for future operations. i will not post subsequent purchases until i have a full position." zijin chen said.

in order to boost market confidence, kweichow moutai announced on the evening of september 20 that it plans to invest 3 billion to 6 billion yuan of its own funds to repurchase shares for cancellation. according to the securities times reporter, this repurchase plan is the first repurchase by kweichow moutai since its listing.

regarding the repurchase plan, well-known investor duan yongping said: "this may be an epoch-making event."