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in late september, typhoon activities were still frequent. according to the central meteorological observatory, this year's 14th typhoon "prasang" had transformed into a temperate cyclone in south gyeongsang province, south korea, on the evening of the 21st, and stopped being numbered at 20:00. however, the ocean did not calm down because of this. on the morning of the 22nd, a new tropical low pressure system was formed in the taiwan strait, namely the previously concerned disturbance 90w. although this disturbance had been previously included in the jtwc as no. 17w, the japan meteorological agency has not yet named it, and its development path and intensity are still subject to great uncertainty.

the central meteorological observatory predicts that the low pressure will move westward and southward at a speed of 15-20 kilometers per hour. its intensity will not change much in the short term, but it may gradually weaken at night. the european and american ensemble forecasts give a more complex path forecast, indicating that it may move southwest first and then turn northeast. although the environmental conditions are favorable for its development due to the small vertical wind shear, the general sea temperature conditions and the interference of land on both sides of the taiwan strait make it difficult for it to strengthen.

nevertheless, regardless of whether the low-pressure system develops into a real typhoon, its superposition effect with the cold air is destined to bring significant wind and rain to the southeastern coastal areas. it is expected that in the next 24 hours, most of the east china sea and the taiwan strait will experience 6-7 level strong winds, with gusts reaching 8-9 levels, and stronger winds in some sea areas. at the same time, southeastern zhejiang, central and eastern fujian and other places will also experience heavy to torrential rains, and some areas will even experience heavy rainstorms. local areas along the eastern coast of fujian are more likely to experience extremely heavy rainstorms.

eu ai data

in addition, the dynamics of typhoons during the national day holiday have also begun to emerge. the latest data from various institutions show that the path of the national day typhoon, which was originally expected to land on the coast of guangdong, has been adjusted. the eu artificial intelligence predicts that it will move north to land in japan, while eu data shows that it may linger from the taiwan strait to the coast of guangdong. the us forecast believes that the typhoon will continue to move westward after entering the bashi channel and may land in hainan at its peak, with the lowest air pressure reaching 949 hpa.

eu data

us data