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today (september 20), the four highly anticipated iphone 16 series models were officially released. according to poster news,beijingit was raining heavily, but there was still a long queue in front of the apple sanlitun retail store. consumers who bought the first batch of iphone 16 series and made an appointment to pick up the goods at the earliest time were waiting in front of the store to become the first batch of iphone 16 series users. according to the paper, the reporter arrived atshanghaiat the apple retail store on nanjing east road, the first batch of users who made appointments to pick up their products in the store were already queuing up indoors. at the apple global harbor store, a large number of users who made appointments were also waiting at the store entrance to receive their new phones. many consumers said that this year's apple new phone updates were not very strong, including the ai ​​features that could not be used immediately. they did not have high expectations, but because of their usage habits, they would still choose apple.

before 9 a.m., a reporter from the daily economic news arrived at the apple store in shenzhen yitian holiday plaza. as the flow of people increased, the staff were placing more black fences for queuing, and the store was bustling with activity. in addition to the "apple fans" who came to pick up their new phones, there were also some consumers who came to experience the new phones.

consumers pick up their products and experience new apple phones at the apple store in shenzhen yitian holiday plaza. image source: photo by wang jing, a reporter from china business news

according to apple store staff, consumers who have made an appointment to purchase a phone in advance can enter the store to pick up their new phone. the store does not have iphone 16 pro/pro max in stock, but iphone 16 and iphone 16 plus can be purchased directly.

“iphone 16 pro max will be recycled at a price of around 300 to 400 yuan.”the reporter noticed several scalpers trading at the scene.they carried more than a dozen apple shopping bags.when seeing users getting new phones from apple stores, they will proactively ask about recycling new phones.the vast majority of scalpers are mainly scrambling for the iphone 16 pro max version, especially the 256g memory version.

as for iphone 16 and iphone 16 plus,"scalpers" will not accept the goods, and most iphone 16 pros are recycled at the original price or with a markup of 30 to 50 yuan.in fact, many e-commerce platforms have already launched a round of subsidy wars, especially pinduoduo. the official website price of iphone 16 starts at 5,999 yuan, and pinduoduo directly reduces it by 600 yuan; the official website price of iphone 16 plus (512gb) starts at 9,999 yuan,save 1,000 yuan after pinduoduo subsidized price.this also means that the two models are facing the situation of "breaking the issue price" (referring to the price in the secondary market falling below the issue price) before they are officially released.

image source: webpage screenshot

image source: webpage screenshot

iPhone 16 Pro Max

the highest premium is about 1,000 yuan

at 8 pm on september 13, apple’s iphone 16 series models officially started pre-sales. many “apple fans” rushed to apple’s official website as soon as possible. while the first batch of new phones were sold out in seconds, “apple’s official website crashed” also became a hot search on weibo.

the reporter of daily economic news noticed that the delivery date for iphone 16/16 plus ordered from apple's official website is september 23; iphone 16 pro is october 11; pro max has the longest delivery date, from october 11 to october 18. it is worth noting that the delivery period of last year's best-selling iphone 15 pro max has been extended to november 14 to november 21, which means that consumers need to wait about two months after placing an order, which may mean that some users have reduced demand for the latest iphone pro models.

the reporter randomly asked several "scalpers" at the scene as consumers who bought new phones, and learned that depending on the color and memory of the specific model, the iphone 16 pro max generally adds 300 to 400 yuan to the recycling price, and sells it at a premium of 800 to 1,000 yuan. in other words, "scalpers" can make a net profit of several hundred yuan by selling a mobile phone.

the "scalpers" on the scene are receiving the goods. image source: photo taken by wang jing, a reporter from meijing.com

an online seller said, "the price of iphone 16 pro has increased less this year, but the price of pro max is still increasing. however, the price may drop soon. it will probably increase by a few hundred yuan in the afternoon."

unlike last year when consumers generally pursued large memory, which led to a large premium, this year large memory is not so popular. after asking several "scalpers", the reporter learned that the iphone 16 pro max 256gb is relatively more popular. in addition, when the reporter first arrived at the apple store, the "scalpers" could sell the model for a premium of nearly 1,000 yuan, but an hour later, the premium had fallen back to 600~700 yuan. "the white pro max version is more popular, and there are too many gold products. you just need to add 600 (yuan)," said a "scalper".

in the early morning of september 10, apple officially released the new iphone 16 series, which has been upgraded in appearance, imaging, chips, etc. specifically, the iphone 16/16 plus models use the a18 chip based on the second-generation 3nm process; the pro/pro max models use the upgraded a18 pro chip. all four models are equipped with a new camera control button. press it to call out the camera app, and a single click can act as a shutter when taking pictures; long press to record video; swipe left and right to zoom, etc. in addition, this button can also be used as an "ai entrance." for example, when a user holding an iphone 16 sees a restaurant, he can press "camera control" to take a picture of the restaurant, and then apple intelligence can automatically call out the restaurant's business hours, reviews, reservations and other options.

in this year's press conference, ai-related terms such as apple intelligence and machine learning were mentioned many times, showing apple's emphasis on the field of ai. in addition, facing the severe economic environment and competitive pressure from chinese manufacturers, apple urgently needs a catalyst to reignite demand in the chinese market. at present, apple intelligence is its trump card, however, the time for apple intelligence to be launched in china is still uncertain, which has also led to lower-than-expected sales of the iphone 16 pro series.

tf international analyst ming-chi kuo said on a social media platform a few days ago that the pre-order sales of the iphone 16 series in the first weekend are estimated to be about 37 million units, which is about 12.7% less than the first weekend sales of the iphone 15 series last year. he further said that the delivery time of the iphone 16 pro series is significantly lower than that of the 15 pro series. in addition to the increase in pre-order inventory, the key to the year-on-year decrease in sales in the first weekend is that demand is lower than expected.

however, kuo believes that although the pre-order sales of the pro series declined year-on-year during the first weekend, the production plan of the supply chain will not change much in the short term, and apple still has the opportunity to improve sales after the launch of apple intelligence and subsequent peak season promotions ("double 11"). however, if the launch of apple intelligence in the fourth quarter of 2024 and the peak season promotions have limited help for iphone 16 series shipments, it is believed that apple will adopt a more aggressive product strategy in 2025 to boost demand.

war escalates: huawei's three-fold product

released on the same day as iphone 16

it is worth mentioning that huawei's first tri-fold mobile phone, the mate xt, was not only released at the same time as the iphone 16 series, but also on the same day - the tri-fold product was officially launched at 10:08 am on september 20. after the rush to buy, all models of the mate xt were sold out in seconds, and are currently out of stock on the official website.

huawei's first three-fold mobile phone mate xt extraordinary master image source: photographed by wang jing, a reporter from china business network (data map)

although the two product categories are completely different, the competition is fierce. as of now, huawei mall shows that the number of reservations for this product has exceeded 6 million. however, compared with the high premium of 60,000 to 100,000 yuan before the release, the price of this product has dropped on the xianyu e-commerce platform.

on september 10, at huawei's new product launch conference, richard yu, huawei's executive director and chairman of the terminal bg, launched the world's first three-fold screen mobile phone. when folded, it can reach a 10.2-inch screen, and when unfolded, it is as thin as 3.6 mm. he said: "we have always had a dream to put a tablet in our pockets, and today we have realized it. but in terms of technology, we have been working hard for five years. for the first time, the hinge system can bend inside and outside, the outer fold is resistant to stretching, and the inner fold is resistant to extrusion, which solves the problem of mass production."

counterpoint research recently released a foldable smartphone shipment tracking report, saying that global foldable smartphone shipments increased by 48% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2024, and china continued to lead the growth of the foldable phone market, accounting for more than half of the total shipments. the foldable screen market, which was once almost entirely dominated by samsung, has now become a fiercely competitive battlefield among mobile phone brand manufacturers. the agency also stated that despite fierce market competition, huawei will still rank first in china's foldable screen mobile phone market share in 2023, accounting for 39%.

judging from the competition between the two major brands, the high price of huawei mate xt, which is close to 20,000 yuan, is destined to be "tried out" by only a small number of users in the early stage of its release. however, huawei, with its drastic innovations, has won the market in terms of voice, while the release of apple's new hardware products is more about evolution rather than revolution.

in fact, iphone sales in china fell 6.5% in the past quarter, and apple has offered deeper discounts to cope with competition from local rivals such as huawei, offering discounts of up to 2,300 yuan on some models in may. today, ai is highly expected, but the extent to which it can boost apple's sales remains to be seen.

nabila popal, research director at idc, believes that although apple's launch of mobile phones with apple intelligence this year has many highlights, it is difficult for new products to bring much growth because its apple intelligence does not have complete language support. its impact is more to prevent apple from declining. at the same time, apple also faces competition, especially from the chinese market, such as huawei.

ryan reith, another idc analyst, holds the same view. "consumers will pay attention to apple intelligence, but today there is gpt and various other solutions that allow consumers to use ai on their current (other) devices, so it is difficult for apple intelligence to directly drive new consumer purchases." at the same time, he also pointed out that the global macroeconomic situation is not very good. even if some expensive devices (whether ai phones or aipcs) are sold through the efforts of suppliers, the development of the ai ​​smartphone market will still be very challenging without promotions and large discounts.

however, some institutions are optimistic. trendforce predicts that the market's expectations for apple intelligence have increased, and with a low base in 2023, it is estimated that the total output of apple's four new iphone 16 series models will reach 86.7 million units in the second half of 2024, an annual increase of nearly 8%. it is not ruled out that apple has the opportunity to surpass samsung by the end of the year and become the number one in the annual smartphone production market share for the first time.