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there are still more than two years to go before the 2026 taiwan "nine-in-one" election, but two polls were released a while ago and attracted attention. among them, for the mayor of kaohsiung, the five candidates from the democratic progressive party who expressed their intention to run for the election all lost to the blue camp's ke zhien in the polls. for the mayor of tainan, the blue camp candidate xie longjie only lost to dpp legislator chen tingfei, and also won over lin junxian and wang dingyu. the traditional green camp's advantage in the constituencies may be in jeopardy. former legislator guo zhengliang bluntly said, "lai qingde really has to be careful in 2026." the dpp is no longer sure to win in tainan, kaohsiung, and pingtung in 2026, and may even have to be careful in penghu.

the 2026 taiwan region's "nine-in-one" county and city mayoral election is the first major election since taiwan leader lai ching-te took office, so it has attracted much attention. an institutional poll on the island recently showed that kmt legislator ke zhien won over dpp legislators lin daihua, lai ruilong, xu zhijie, qiu yiying, and xu mingchun, the former head of the taiwan authorities' labor department, and it is rumored that the dpp may send lai's office secretary-general pan meng'an to run for mayor of kaohsiung. as for tainan, polls show that if the kmt is represented by legislator xie longjie to run against chen tingfei, chen tingfei's support rate is 46%, while xie longjie has 35% support from citizens. if the dpp nominates legislator lin junxian, xie longjie has 38% support and lin junxian has 37% support. if the dpp sends wang dingyu, xie longjie's support rate is 40%, and wang dingyu's is 35%.

when analyzing the election situation yesterday (18th), guo zhengliang said that dpp legislator huang jie would not be able to run for mayor of kaohsiung in 2026, but if pan meng'an were to run, chen qimai would be able to do so. guo zhengliang analyzed that because chen qimai wants to be the head of the executive yuan, he needs to be promoted by lai qingde, and pan meng'an is senior enough that others can obey him. in comparison, huang jie is just a "little sister."

in response to netizens' questions about how pan meng'an could have been elected if he had not been deeply involved in kaohsiung, guo zhengliang believed that there was a "pingtung gang" in kaohsiung, and that all the mayors of kaohsiung counties and cities, except for the incumbent chen chi-mai, were almost all elected from other counties and cities.

guo zhengliang mentioned that when the dpp is in power, the kmt usually wins better in county and city elections, and the dpp is prone to big defeat. take the former leader of taiwan, tsai ing-wen, for example. she won big in the 2016 and 2020 taiwan leader elections, but lost miserably in the "mid-term" 2018 and 2022 county and city mayor elections. this situation occurs because the green camp often makes a lot of mistakes when in power. judging from the current situation of taiwan leader lai ching-te, we should be careful in the 2026 election, and even tainan, kaohsiung and pingtung, where the green camp had an advantage in the past, will be in danger.

guo zhengliang continued that, judging from the situation in southern taiwan, "chiayi county is relatively stable, but southern kaohsiung and pingtung could collapse if we are not careful." if we are not careful, southern kaohsiung and pingtung may be "completely destroyed" in 2026, and even penghu will have to be careful. as for northern taiwan, including taipei city, keelung city, and taoyuan city, the current mayors of the kuomintang have no rivals for re-election.

guo zhengliang mentioned that although the taipei city area has been a hot topic recently because of the jinghuacheng case, it has no impact on the current mayor jiang wanan at all, "jiang wanan will be re-elected 100%. the image of wang shijian and wu siyao, who were previously seen by the outside world as possible candidates for the mayor of taipei city, has also been severely damaged. unless the democratic progressive party puts forward zheng lijun, deputy head of the taiwan executive yuan, to run for election, there is still a chance for jiang wanan to be re-elected.

as for the mayor of taoyuan, guo zhengliang said that chang shan-cheng also has no opponent. after all, in cities like taipei and taoyuan, the basic base is still "blue is greater than green", so it is probably no surprise that chang shan-cheng will be re-elected. as for keelung city, as long as xie guoliang survives this wave of recall votes, he will definitely pass the re-election in 2026. because as long as the recall fails, xie guoliang will have no opponent. as for the mayor of taichung, the people's party should not be pushing anyone to run, so the kuomintang will not have a big problem. the only problem at present is the mayor of new taipei city.

guo zhengliang emphasized that lai qingde will run in 2028, so he must not collapse in 2026. but history has proven that the dpp is prone to collapse in county and city elections. when tsai ing-wen was in power, the dpp had more than half of the seats in taiwan's public opinion institutions, but the "han guoyu whirlwind" in the 2018 election caused the dpp to collapse, and then it collapsed in 2022. now that the dpp has no more than half of the seats in taiwan's public opinion institutions, "the budget is obviously going to be a struggle, and it would be strange if the county and city elections didn't collapse."

guo zhengliang also said at the end, "in 2026, lai qingde really needs to be careful. this collapse may collapse to some places he didn't expect. for example, in tainan, you can see whether xie longjie will win? or in pingtung, zhou chunmi will fight with su qingquan again and see whether zhou chunmi will win?"(lin jingxian, strait herald reporter in taiwan)