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zheshang securities believes that after the big rate cut, the resilience of the us economy and inflation will be further enhanced. while achieving a "soft landing" this year, it will also constrain the subsequent rate cut space to a certain extent. it is expected that the fed will cut interest rates by 100bp this year, and 25bp in november and december respectively, which is in line with the guidance of the current dot plot; but the interest rate cut space in 2025 may not reach 100bp as shown in the current dot plot.

china merchants securities pointed out that the direction of improvement in prosperity last week was mainly in the fields of resource products, midstream manufacturing and information technology. among upstream resource products, cement and steel prices rebounded, and metal prices mostly rose; in the midstream manufacturing field, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of industrial robots and metal cutting machine tools in august expanded. in information technology, the three-month rolling year-on-year growth rate of smartphone and integrated circuit production in august expanded. in the consumer service field, the prices of vegetables and broiler chicks rose. travel during the mid-autumn festival holiday maintained steady growth, and the travel radius was shortened. it is recommended to pay attention to tmt such as electronics with higher prosperity, machinery that continues to recover, and inbound and outbound tourism and home appliances boosted by the national day holiday and domestic demand policies.

zhongyuan securities believes that the a-share market on wednesday was depressed first and then rose, with a slight fluctuation. the stock index opened high in the morning and then fluctuated upward. the shanghai stock index encountered resistance near 2714 points during the session. the stock index fluctuated and fell in the afternoon, and stabilized and rebounded at the end of the session. the diversified financial, coal, real estate and electronic chemicals industries performed well during the session; the brewing, consumer electronics, semiconductors and electronic components industries performed weakly. the shanghai stock index basically showed the characteristics of first depression and then rise throughout the day. the current average price-earnings ratios of the shanghai composite index and the chinext index are 11.56 times and 25.29 times, respectively, which are below the median level in the past three years. the market valuation is still in a low area, which is suitable for medium- and long-term layout. the transaction volume of the two markets on wednesday was 481.9 billion yuan, which is below the median area of ​​the average daily transaction volume in the past three years. in the future, the overall stock index is expected to maintain a volatile pattern, and it is still necessary to pay close attention to changes in policies, funds and external factors. investors are advised to pay attention to investment opportunities in real estate, finance and home appliances in the short term.