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at this morning (september 19th) beijing time,the federal reserve announced a 50 basis point interest rate cut.this is the first rate cut by the federal reserve since mid-march 2020. since the last rate hike in december 2022, the u.s. federal funds rate has remained at a high level of 5.25% to 5.5% for 21 months. this rate cut indicates that the u.s. dollar has officially entered the rate cut channel.

the us dollar rate cut is good for commodities, including crude oil, which are mainly denominated in us dollars. however, due to concerns about the prospects of the us and global economies, international crude oil futures prices fell instead of rising on september 18, with new york crude oil futures closing at $69.15 per barrel, down 1.16%; brent crude oil futures closed at $72.08 per barrel, down 1.27%.

in fact, during this round of price adjustment, international crude oil hit a new low this year, with new york and brent crude oil futures both falling below the $70/barrel mark. among them, new york crude oil futures fell to $65.27/barrel, a new low since early may 2023; brent crude oil futures hit a new low since early december 2021, falling to $68.68/barrel.

according to jinlianchuang's calculations, as of the ninth working day on september 19, the average price of the reference crude oil variety was us$70.37 per barrel, with a change rate of -7.19%. the corresponding domestic gasoline and diesel retail prices should be reduced by 380 yuan per ton, which is equivalent to per liter.the downward adjustment is about 30 cents.

this means that as long as the international oil price does not soar sharply on the last working day,tomorrow night, domestic gasoline and diesel prices will record their biggest drop this year, and the change in oil prices this year will also turn from rising to falling for the first time.

at 24:00 on august 8 this year, domestic refined oil prices experienced the largest drop so far this year. at that time, gasoline and diesel were reduced by 305 yuan and 290 yuan per ton respectively. in zhejiang province, the prices of no. 92 gasoline, no. 95 gasoline and no. 0 diesel were all reduced by 0.25 yuan per liter.

looking further ahead, at 24:00 on december 19, 2023, domestic gasoline and diesel prices will be reduced by 415 yuan/ton and 400 yuan/ton for diesel respectively. in zhejiang province, no. 92 gasoline will drop by 0.34 yuan per liter, no. 95 gasoline will drop by 0.36 yuan per liter, and no. 0 diesel will drop by 0.34 yuan per liter.

so far this year, the adjustment of domestic refined oil prices has shown a pattern of "seven increases, seven decreases and four stagnations". counting the downward adjustment tomorrow night,it becomes "seven rises, eight falls, and four stranded".if we don't count the oil price adjustment that was shelved on august 22,tomorrow night will mark the fourth consecutive drop in oil prices.

currently, the price of no. 92 gasoline in zhejiang province is 7.63 yuan/liter, no. 95 gasoline is 8.12 yuan/liter, and no. 0 diesel is 7.31 yuan/liter. taking no. 92 gasoline as an example, the cumulative increase so far this year is 0.12 yuan/liter. this means that after the oil price adjustment tomorrow night,for the first time this year, gasoline and diesel prices will turn from rising to falling, and no. 95 gasoline will also fall below the 8 yuan mark and fall back to the "7" digit.