the shanghai composite index fell below 2,700 points and rebounded to rise. banks and real estate rebounded in the afternoon. the two markets traded 479.3 billion yuan
2024-09-18
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the three major a-share indices opened with mixed gains and losses on september 18. after a brief surge at the beginning of the session, they fluctuated in a narrow range and closed slightly lower in the afternoon. there was a rapid decline in the afternoon, and after the shanghai composite index fell below 2,700, the three major indices rebounded and turned positive.
from the market perspective, diversified financial and real estate stocks led the rebound in the afternoon, dividend assets were strong throughout the day, and lithography machines and overseas concepts performed actively; big consumption was collectively sluggish, pork, tourism, and medical sectors generally fell, kweichow moutai has fallen 8% in the past three days, and the fruit chain and st sectors have declined significantly.
at the close of trading, the shanghai composite index rose 0.49% to 2717.28 points; the science and technology innovation 50 index fell 1.17% to 647.41 points; the shenzhen component index rose 0.11% to 7992.25 points; and the chinext index fell 0.11% to 1533.47 points.
wind statistics show that a total of 1,518 stocks in the two cities and the beijing stock exchange rose, 3,646 stocks fell, and 183 stocks were flat.
the total transaction volume of the shanghai and shenzhen stock markets was 479.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 45.4 billion yuan from the previous trading day's 524.7 billion yuan. among them, the shanghai stock market's transaction volume was 213.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.7 billion yuan from the previous trading day's 227.8 billion yuan, and the shenzhen stock market's transaction volume was 266.2 billion yuan.
according to dazhihui vip, a total of 37 stocks in the two cities and the beijing stock exchange rose by more than 9%, and 29 stocks fell by more than 9%.
real estate and banks rose sharply in the afternoon, while agricultural stocks led the decline in both markets
in terms of sectors, real estate stocks saw a sharp rise in the afternoon, with china communications construction real estate (000736), electronics city (600658), zhangjiang hi-tech park (600895) and others hitting their daily limit, while teda services (300917), 5i5home (000560), and airport holdings (600463) rose by more than 8%.
bank stocks rose together with real estate stocks in the afternoon, with suzhou bank (002966), industrial and commercial bank of china (601398), china minsheng bank (600016), postal savings bank of china (601658), and china merchants bank (600036) rising by more than 1%.
household appliances were strong throughout the day, with haili holdings (600619) hitting the daily limit, and changhong meiling (000521), aucma (600336), and tcl smart home (002668) rising by more than 5%.
agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery led the decline in the two markets. langyuan co., ltd. (300175) fell by more than 10%, dayu water saving (300021) fell by more than 5%, lukang biochemical (002868), zuming co., ltd. (003030), shennong seed co., ltd. (300189) and others fell by more than 3%.
liquor stocks continued to decline, with food and beverage leading the decline. the share price of the leading kweichow moutai (600519) fell by more than 2% and fell below the 1,300 yuan mark. yanshi co., ltd. (600696) continued to hit the limit. huanlejia (300997), wufangzhai (603237), jiaoda anli (600530), sunshine dairy (001318), and longda gourmet (002726) fell by more than 3%.
environmental protection stocks performed poorly, with senyuan holdings (300210), guozhong water group (600187) and others hitting the daily limit or falling by more than 10%, while yongqing environmental protection (300187), xingyuan environment (300187), and taihe water (605081) fell by more than 4%.
the current a-share market has many bottom-oriented characteristics
cicc pointed out that the current a-share market has many bottom-prone characteristics: the turnover rate of a-shares calculated by free float market value is at a historical bottom level of around 1.5%; in terms of valuation, the dividend yield of the csi 300 is 1.1 percentage points higher than the 10-year treasury bond rate, and the forward valuation of the csi 300 index is around one standard deviation of the historical bottom, and the market has good valuation attractiveness; a rebound in strong stocks is also often a common phenomenon at historical stage bottoms.
citic securities believes that the weak trend of macro price signals continues, and the response of internal policies still needs to be observed, while external signal disturbances are not enough to affect domestic policies; since september, the inflow of supporting funds has decreased, and the stock price has accelerated to fully reflect market expectations. the bottoming process is expected to be shortened, and short-term capital games are expected to still dominate the market before the introduction of incremental policies; in terms of allocation, it is recommended to continue the bottom position of dividends and overseas expansion, and wait patiently for the turning point signal.
ping an securities pointed out that the current a-share valuation is at a historically low level. we should pay attention to the marginal changes of positive factors. the loosening of overseas liquidity has further opened up domestic easing space. the merger and reorganization of the a-share market has gradually entered an active period. the merger and acquisition of hard technology companies and the professional integration of central state-owned enterprises have continued to advance. in terms of structure, we continue to recommend paying attention to the direction of long-term policy support and active industry catalysis, such as new quality productivity representing growth style (tmt, power equipment, national defense and military industry, mechanical equipment, etc.), high-end manufacturing and investment opportunities related to state-owned enterprise reform.
haitong securities pointed out that the overseas environment for the fed's rate cut this time is more complicated. the us economy is similar to that of 1995, the us election is approaching, and the coordination of overseas monetary policies has declined. in previous fed rate cuts, the economic and monetary policy cycles of china and the united states were relatively consistent, but this time there was a misalignment. in the future, we should pay attention to positive signals that may promote the recovery of fundamentals. the fed's preventive rate cut may help improve the liquidity of a-shares, and the fundamental repair verification is still needed in the medium and long term. at the industry level, we should focus on the financial and consumer industries in the short term, and the technology sector will gradually dominate in the medium term.
huatai securities pointed out that the shanghai composite index hit a new low before the holiday, but there are more signals approaching the support level. the social financing and inflation data in august showed that the endogenous demand of the real sector still needs to be repaired, but investors' blunt reaction to this negative information indicates that the market may have reached the bottom range. the degree of compensatory decline of strong assets (dividend industries) may also be one of the observation indicators of the market bottom. at present, the clearing of floating chips may be nearing the end, and the price-performance ratio of stocks and bonds has fallen back to the bottom level of last year, which may indicate that the investment price-performance ratio of dividend assets has rebounded. in addition, the pressure of margin liquidation may be nearing the end, and the valuation differentiation coefficient has also fallen back to the level of 2018. however, from the perspective of the bottom characteristics of the capital side, the net increase in industrial capital holdings in the past month has not turned positive, and it may still be slightly lacking compared with the previous bottom construction. in terms of allocation, it is recommended to pay attention to non-financial a50, industries with two-way improvement in supply and demand, and pharmaceutical/hong kong stocks that benefit strongly from interest rate cuts.
the paper reporter xu hongwen
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