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a recent poll on the island showed that in the 2026 "nine-in-one election", the democratic progressive party does not have an overwhelming advantage in either tainan or kaohsiung, especially in kaohsiung city, where kuomintang legislator ko chien-en won against all five democratic progressive party generals.

kaohsiung mayor chen chi-mai to step down in 2026

one or two polls may not explain anything, but with the dpp's long-term support, corruption scandals have been frequent, and it is an objective fact that the green camp's vote bank has rusted. once the southern region is lost, it will inevitably affect the dpp's succession issue.

taking stock of the leaders of taiwan from the democratic progressive party, chen shui-bian is from tainan, while lai ching-te made his fortune in tainan. tainan can be called the "holy land" of the democratic progressive party. this also shows that the people of tainan were very supportive of the green camp politicians in the early days, which led to the democratic progressive party's "deification movement" one after another. chen shui-bian and lai ching-te have both been "deified" and finally succeeded in "reaching the top."

in comparison, tsai ing-wen, who came from the kuomintang bureaucracy, is an "atypical" dpp member. her election as the leader of taiwan in 2016 was due to the historical context, and tsai ing-wen's example will probably be difficult to replicate in the future.

it is generally believed that the current kaohsiung mayor chen chi-mai is lai ching-te's future successor, but whether it is 2028 or 2032, it is still a long time and there are many variables. in addition, the shadow of the corruption scandal of chen chi-mai's father, chen che-nan, has always hung over his political career.

chen chi-mai will step down as mayor of kaohsiung in 2026. potential successors include lin dai-hua, lai ruilong, hsu chih-chieh, chiu yi-ying, and hsu ming-chun. none of them are politically prominent figures with national fame in taiwan, which is far from the level of their predecessors chen ju and chen chi-mai.

the situation in tainan city is not much better. according to the current polls, chen ting-fei is slightly ahead of the kmt's hsieh lung-chieh, but if the dpp sends lin jun-xian or wang ting-yu, they will lag behind. moreover, chen, lin, and wang each have their own problems. even if one of them is elected as the mayor of tainan, it will probably be difficult for them to replicate the "lai ching-te myth" and move up a level in the future.

the "two southern capitals" are the main sources of talent for the dpp, but now they are facing a problem of difficulty in finding talented people. the impact is no longer limited to the local areas, and the dpp's concerns about succession have gradually surfaced.

strait herald reporter xue yang