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the mid-autumn festival holiday is coming to an end. during the holiday, the overall trading in the peripheral markets was active, and the federal reserve’s interest rate cut is expected to be implemented this week.

in the view of industry organizations, the current a-share market bottoming period is expected to be shortened, domestic macroeconomic policies to boost demand remain the current focus. in terms of allocation, the bottom-line value of dividends still exists, and growth-themed opportunities, long-term policy support and active industrial catalysis are worth grasping.

major events that will affect future investment

the federal reserve’s september interest rate decision is imminent

at 2 a.m. beijing time on september 19, the federal reserve will announce its latest interest rate decision. the market generally predicts that the federal reserve will announce a rate cut, and the difference in market discussion lies in the extent of the rate cut, that is, whether the first rate cut will be 25 basis points or 50 basis points.

hkex announces severe weather trading will take effect from september 23

the hong kong stock exchange announced on september 16 that it has received regulatory approval to implement severe weather trading, which will take effect on september 23, 2024. securities trading on or through the exchange (including northbound and southbound trading of the shanghai-hong kong stock connect) will continue during severe weather conditions. the hong kong stock exchange said that similar to regular trading days, all exchange participants need to continue to provide trading-related services during severe weather conditions.

nanjing housing market issues housing purchase subsidies within a limited time

according to the official wechat public account of nanjing housing security and real estate bureau on september 17, nanjing will issue housing purchase subsidies for a limited time at the 2024 golden autumn housing fair. from september 20 to 22, 2024, buyers who purchase newly built commercial housing at the nanjing golden autumn housing fair (subject to the subscription agreement certified by the special seal for the exhibition transaction) and complete the online filing of the newly built commercial housing sales contract before december 31, 2024 (subject to the contract filing time of the nanjing transaction registration integrated platform) can apply for a limited-time housing purchase subsidy after obtaining the real estate ownership certificate. the subsidy standard is to give an additional subsidy of 1% of the purchase contract amount on the basis of the current housing purchase subsidy policy in various districts of nanjing.

institutional investment views in the future

citic securities: a-share bottoming period is expected to be shortened

from the perspective of the market bottoming out stage, the reduction of "bottoming" capital inflows in the past two weeks may accelerate the progress of stock prices fully reflecting market expectations and sentiments, and shorten the bottoming out period of a-shares. in terms of allocation, in an environment where long-term treasury bond interest rates continue to decline, the bottom position value of dividends still exists, but in terms of structure, it is necessary to avoid varieties with fundamental volatility risks. at present, excellent companies in the overseas sector have allocation value.

haitong securities: the fed’s rate cut may help improve liquidity

the fed's preventive rate cut may help improve the liquidity of a-shares. the positive factors in the current economic operation are gradually accumulating. if the changes in related fields can be continuously verified, it may help promote the repair of domestic fundamentals. drawing on history, this round of fed's preventive rate cut is good for the a-share financial industry in the short term, and consumer industries favored by foreign capital such as food and beverage, beauty care are also expected to strengthen; but from a medium-term perspective, technology industries such as electronics may gradually gain the upper hand.

huaan securities: focus on growth-themed opportunities in the future

the market has given optimistic expectations for the fed's rate cut, and it is expected that the rate cut will have limited impact on the market. the current focus is still on domestic macroeconomic policies to boost demand. in terms of allocation, we actively seek structural opportunities, focusing on growth-themed opportunities, such as electronics, communications, computers, and new quality productivity; oversold rebound opportunities with economic recovery or supporting policies, such as home appliances, automobiles, real estate, and agriculture and animal husbandry. in the medium term, we will seize the deterministic opportunities of cyclical products, such as non-ferrous metals (precious metals, industrial metals), utilities (electricity), and coal.

caitong securities: short-term asset prices may rise across the board

the federal reserve's interest rate meeting is approaching, and the probability of a rate cut has greatly increased. in the short term, asset prices may rise across the board, and growth sectors and gold are expected to be more resilient. the follow-up will mainly depend on the direction of the us macro-path. if the economy achieves a soft landing, the us dollar will be strong, us stocks will be strong, gold will be weak, and commodities will be strong. it is recommended to allocate copper, aluminum, oil, home appliances, and construction machinery; if the economy achieves a hard landing, it is recommended to buy various types of debt assets in a defensive state, and allocate gold, us bonds, treasury bonds, and low-valuation high-dividend varieties.

ping an securities: focus on long-term policy support and active industry catalysis

the current a-share valuation is at a historically low level. pay attention to the marginal changes of positive factors. the loosening of overseas liquidity has further opened up domestic easing space. the a-share market mergers and acquisitions have gradually entered an active period. hard technology enterprise mergers and acquisitions, and the professional integration of central state-owned enterprises have continued to advance. structurally, it is recommended to pay attention to the direction of long-term policy support and active industry catalysis, such as new quality productivity representing growth style (tmt/power equipment/defense and military industry/mechanical equipment, etc.), high-end manufacturing, and investment opportunities related to state-owned enterprise reform.

soochow securities: screening investment opportunities from the perspective of high prosperity

it is recommended to screen investment opportunities based on four perspectives: first, in the context of relatively pressured index and liquidity environment, pay attention to the high-growth direction of technology hardware such as electronics; second, in areas where stock prices are oversold but fundamentals have improved marginally, it is recommended to pay attention to energy storage, lithium batteries, games and other directions; third, sectors where industrial trends or industrial policy expectations are strengthened, such as low-altitude economy, autonomous driving, vehicle-road collaboration, semiconductor equipment, etc.; fourth, the probability of the federal reserve cutting interest rates in september has increased, and the trend of decline in us dollar asset interest rates may begin. it is recommended to pay attention to valuation repair opportunities for interest rate sensitive assets such as innovative drugs and new energy.