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thoughts on objectively understanding the current economic situation and boosting market confidence

2024-09-18

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wen renzeping

in recent years, my country has made great progress in new infrastructure, new energy, new quality productivity and other fields, and has taken a leading position in the world. at the same time, it has achieved positive results in controlling housing prices, deleveraging, and clearing local debts, resolving real estate bubbles and financial risks. with great determination and courage, it has solved many long-standing historical problems and laid a solid foundation for sustainable and high-quality development.

however, the short-term economic situation in my country is not optimistic, and the economy continues to decline or even overshoot. ppi has been negative for more than 20 consecutive months, and cpi has been hovering around zero, which is rare in history, and deflationary pressure is obvious. the stock market and housing market have continued to decline for nearly three years. the main stock indexes, excluding bank stocks, have generally fallen by more than half, and the chinext index has fallen by more than half; the sales area of ​​new commercial housing in january-august fell by 18.0% year-on-year, and the average housing price in first- and second-tier cities fell by about 30%, and the housing price in remote suburbs and third- and fourth-tier cities was even halved. residents' assets have shrunk severely, and consumption has been downgraded.

local governments have a huge gap between revenue and expenditure, and non-tax revenue represented by fines and confiscations has increased abnormally. against the backdrop of a year-on-year decrease of -5.4% in national tax revenue from january to july, non-tax revenue grew by 12%, reaching 2.44 trillion yuan. it is common for local governments to owe wages, and a large number of small and medium-sized enterprises have been owed project funds by local governments, leading to a wave of layoffs and salary cuts. more seriously, market confidence has been hit, companies lack a sense of security, private investment has been in negative growth for a long time, and the "lying flat" culture has become popular.