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not long ago, some cities released birth data for the first half of the year.

the official number of births has increased year-on-year, and this year may usher in a small spring

let the population issue once again become a hot topic of concern

you know, since 2016, the number of births in the country has been declining year by year.

from the highest point of 18.83 million to 9.02 million, it has been cut in half.

data source: national bureau of statistics

after 7 years of continuous decline, why did it appear in the first half of this year?'small rebound'？

01

the spring festival is the first to rebound, and many places have ushered in a "dragon baby birth boom"

in fact, as soon as the year of the dragon began, the number of newborns in many places increased significantly.

since january, the beds at shandong provincial maternal and child health hospital have been basically full.the number of births in the first two months of the year is much higher than the same period last year.”

the number of registered patients at shanghai jiading maternal and child health hospital in january this year was 631, compared with 495 in january last year, a year-on-year increase of 27.5%.

during the spring festival,the first small birth peak this year

hospitals in wuxi, bengbu, jiangxi and shaanxi have all released data on "dragon babies" during the spring festival.

data source: internet, for reference only

statistics from jiangmen city, guangdong province show that from february 10 (the first day of the first lunar month) to march 31, a total of 50 days

1,404 "dragon babies" were born in the city's maternal and child health care hospital and central hospital, an increase of 15% over the same period last year.

as of the end of april, a total of 2,608 "dragon babies" were born in kunming maternal and child health hospital this year.a record high in recent years

according to the number of card issuances, several cities, including nanjing,april ushered in another small peak in fertility

by august, guangdong province, qingdao, shandong, baoji, shaanxi, daqing, heilongjiang, tianmen, hubei, and other places

both announced that the number of births in the first half of the year showed an upward trend, and expected that the total number of births in the local area for the whole year is expected to be higher than last year.

data source: internet, for reference only

according to the guangdong provincial maternal and child health hospital, the number of live births in the province increased by 1.4% in the first half of the year compared to last year.

the number of births in qingdao in the first half of the year was 22,669, a year-on-year increase of 5.93%, reversing the trend of two consecutive years of year-on-year decline.

the shaanxi baoji statistics bureau surveyed five hospitals and midwifery institutions in four counties and districts. the data showed that they delivered 3,223 newborns in the first half of last year and 3,569 in the first half of this year, a year-on-year increase of 10.7%.

the hubei daily reported that as of august 14, the number of births in tianmen city this year reached 4,232, 431 more than the same period last year.for the first time in eight years“from decline to increase”

the head of tianmen health commission said,the birth rate will peak at the end of this year and the beginning of next year. it is estimated that the number of births this year will reach 6,800, a year-on-year increase of 13%.”

the number of births in xintian county, hunan province from january to may increased by 5.7% year-on-year, and the number of births in alxa league, inner mongolia province in the first half of the year also increased by 7.3% compared with the same period last year.

the most exaggerated increase was in cengtai town, bijie city, guizhou province, where the number of births in the first half of the year wasan increase of 23% year-on-year

02

why is guangdong still so fertile?

judging from this year's population news, guangdong not only contributes the most gdp in the country, but also contributes the most newborns, continuing to maintain its fertility advantage.

in the context of the birth rate in most parts of the country being lower than the average of 6.39‰

guangdong's birth rate has ranked among the top eight in the country for two consecutive years, showing that it is particularly fertile.

data source: internet, for reference only

the eastern guangdong region represented by shantou and the western guangdong region represented by zhanjiang in the province have a strong fertility culture and have always been the "vanguard" of childbirth.

in the previous seventh national census, the birth rates in western guangdong and eastern guangdong were 13.6‰ and 12.6‰ respectively.

in 2023, the birth rates in shantou and zhanjiang will be 10.58‰ and 10.51‰ respectively.

it can be said that one out of every 10 newborns in guangdong is born in shantou and one in zhanjiang.

both are higher than the provincial average and are far ahead in the country.

the data comes from the internet and local statistical bureaus, for reference only

in addition to the influence of traditional concepts, the relatively young age structure also supports guangdong's birth rate.

the number of children aged 0-15 and the number of working-age population aged 16-59 are both the largest in the country.

the permanent population under the age of 60 exceeds 100 million

age structure of permanent population in each province in 2023, source: nandu big data

guangzhou, dongguan and foshan are the three cities that can be called the “cities of youth”.

in the seventh national census, the proportion of working-age population aged 15 to 64 was 78%, 83% and 78% respectively, all higher than the provincial average of 73%.

the proportions of women of childbearing age aged 15-49 were 29%, 30% and 27% respectively.

at the same time, at the end of last year, the permanent population of guangdong province exceeded 127 million, an increase of 490,000 from the end of 2022.

after a year, the permanent population has returned to a positive growth track

of these 490,000 people, 350,000 came from natural growth, and another 140,000 came mainly from migration growth.

in cities such as guangzhou, dongguan, shenzhen, foshan, zhongshan, huizhou, and jiangmen, the number of permanent residents in 2023 will be higher than the number of registered residents.war for talentthe main position of

the data comes from the internet and local statistical bureaus, for reference only

more and more people from other places come to guangdong, becoming "new and old guangdong residents" and finding jobs, settling down and having children there, bringing in more newborns.

in other words, the growth of guangdong’s permanent population isthe result of the “dual-wheel drive” of natural growth and migration growth

lin hong, a first-level researcher at the population monitoring and family development division of the guangdong provincial health commission, said that since the implementation of the universal two-child policy in 2016, the number of births in guangdong has experienced a trend of first a significant increase and then a continuous decline.

“fortunately, the number of births in guangdong may increase in 2024”

in order to enable more guangdong people to have children

at present, the province is accelerating the construction of a "fertility-friendly province" and has introduced a number of measures to improve and implement active fertility support.

these measures include adding more than 330,000 new public kindergarten places and increasing the amount of housing provident fund loans for families with many children.

to further solve the problems of "raising" and "education"

03

why will there be a rebound in the first half of this year?

in addition to provinces and cities such as guangdong, jiangsu and qingdao, which have developed economies and are experiencing an influx of population,

many small cities are cities with population outflow and have already entered a period of negative population growth.

the data of the seventh national census showed thatbaoji's permanent population was 3.3219 million, a decrease of 394,900 from the sixth census; daqing's permanent population was 2.7816 million, a decrease of 122,900; tianmen's permanent population was 1.1586 million, a decrease of 260,300.……

the reason why their birth data rebounded in the first half of the year was mainly due tosubsidies in real money

baoji city issued an optimized birth policy at the beginning of the year, with a significant increase in the subsidy standard for prenatal examinations and the reimbursement standard for normal delivery and cesarean section.

families with two or three children in tianmen city can receive subsidies of 96,300 yuan and 165,100 yuan respectively.

families with two or three children who purchase commercial housing in tianmen can also receive housing subsidy tickets of 50,000 yuan and 100,000 yuan.

as a region in northeast china with a relatively serious population loss, daqing city has been making continuous efforts to support fertility in recent years.

the childcare subsidy policy of daqing city stipulates that if both spouses or one spouse has a household registration in daqing city, the subsidy for the second child is 300 yuan per month and the subsidy for the third child is 500 yuan per month, and the subsidy can be enjoyed for up to 36 months.

as of the end of august this year, the city has issued childcare subsidies totaling 11.0996 million yuan to eligible families with two or three children.

image source: daqing daily

as the saying goes, "a big reward will always bring a brave man." real money undoubtedly plays a role in increasing the desire to have children.

from a broader national perspective, this yearthe small fertility peak has the following reasons

the first is the more prominent "year of the dragon effect”

in traditional culture, the dragon is the totem of the chinese nation, representing auspiciousness and happiness, and also symbolizing strength and excellence.

therefore, many people choose to give birth in the year of the dragon, with the hope that their children will become successful.

demographic researcher he yafu calculated the total number of births in the six complete zodiac years from 1952 to 2023 and found that the top three zodiac signs with the most births are the year of the dragon, the year of the snake, and the year of the horse.

among them, the number of people born in the six rounds of the year of the dragon is more than 23 million people born in the six rounds of the year of the ox.

image source: he yafu

the last year of the dragon was 2012, when my country's birth rate reached 14.57‰, with 19.73 million births.

toothe highest year so far this century, even exceeding the years when the second and third child policies were fully relaxed.

secondly, the number of marriages will increase in 2023

according to data released by the ministry of civil affairs, the number of marriage registrations nationwide last year was 7.68 million, an increase of 845,000 couples from 2022, an increase of about 12.4%.this is the first rise in nearly a decade

this will also have a positive impact on the number of births in 2024.

data source: ministry of civil affairs

however, the number of marriage registrations fell again in the first half of this year.

this is a record low in recent years, only about half of the 6.94 million pairs in the same period of 2014.

some families have gradually released their fertility plans that were pent up during the epidemic.

in general, this wave of birth rebound is driven by multiple factors, including a short-term increase in the number of marriages, the dragon's zodiac fertility preference, and the fermentation of policies to encourage fertility.

04

it is undeniable that even with these positive factors

the number of births this year may only increase slightly from last year's 9.02 million.

the possibility of a sharp rebound is not great. he yafu predicts that the number of births in the whole year will still not exceed 10 million.

the data mentioned above only covers some of the regions that have been disclosed and cannot represent the overall situation of the national birth population in 24 years.

population concerns are mixed in various places, and many places have announced that the number of births in the first half of the year continued to decline

for example, nanning, guangxi, has seen a decrease of 1,490 people compared to the same period last year, and deyang, sichuan, has seen a decrease of 507 people compared to the same period last year.

although a city's population changes are highly positively correlated with its economic development level

but how many newborns are there?more complex social issues, increase and decrease are not something that the city itself can easily control

existin the context of a decline in the number of women of childbearing age and low fertility intention

the demographic impact will continue

the above is the main text, from chu ran

this is the first public account of lu jun.5544original articles