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the original price started at 19,999 yuan, but it was hyped up to around 30,000 yuan on second-hand platforms. the first tri-fold mobile phone, huawei mate xt, has become a new generation of financial management artifact.

(image source: xianyu screenshot)

after huawei tried the first step, other companies will naturally follow suit. recently, digital blogger @数码闲聊站 broke the news that ovm's dual-folding screen mobile phone is progressing steadily and is watching the three-folding mobile phone market. the industry predicts that the first manufacturer to follow huawei and launch a three-folding mobile phone will be honor.

(source: weibo screenshot)

since samsung and huawei launched their first foldable phones in 2019, the sales and market share of foldable phones have soared. among the world's mainstream mobile phone manufacturers, apple is the only one that has not followed suit. but apple must admit that with the power of foldable phones, android manufacturers are thriving in the high-end market. it can be said that focusing on foldable phones has become a shortcut for the world's leading mobile phone manufacturers to move towards the high-end.

the performance of big and small discounts exceeded expectations.the industry is heading towards a three-fold

before 2020, there were only three brands to choose from in the global high-end smartphone market, namely apple, huawei and samsung. other mobile phone manufacturers have successively launched flagship models, but their performance in the high-end market has been unsatisfactory. to impact the high-end market, mobile phone manufacturers need to develop both brand value and products, but with the three giants in the lead, it is too difficult to impact the high-end market without major breakthroughs.

the arrival of large folding (double folding) mobile phones has given mobile phone manufacturers an opportunity to move into the high-end market.nowadays, traditional flagships of mobile phone manufacturers are gradually converging in appearance design and functional features, but there is still room for development in screen ratio, application adaptation, etc. of foldable screen mobile phones.

(photo source: lei technology)

idc predicts that china will maintain its position as the world's largest foldable phone market for a long time. it is expected that the cumulative shipments of foldable phones this year will reach 10.68 million units, a year-on-year increase of 52.4%. by 2027, china's foldable phone shipments will reach 17 million units, almost half of apple's domestic mobile phone sales in 2023.

at the ifa 2024 consumer electronics show in berlin, germany, honor ceo zhao ming held a group interview, and the lei technology reporting team also obtained a lot of first-hand information on the spot. zhao ming told us,if foldable screen phones were like this five years ago, they would have been sold out in the market long ago. magic v3 has the thickness and weight of a candy bar phone, as well as 2.5-meter waterproof and drop-resistant performance. it can not only meet consumers' demand for candy bar phones, but also provide an ultra-large screen experience.

(photo source: lei technology)

zhao ming's words reveal the development of foldable screen phones in recent years. large foldable phones have broken the inherent impression of being "dumb, big, black and thick". while maintaining long battery life, their weight and thickness are getting better and better, and their imaging functions are also continuously improving, catching up with the flagship candy-bar phones. at the same time, mobile phone manufacturers are also pursuing breakthroughs in form factors. after the large foldable phones, they have launched small foldable phones that fold up and down.

the advantage of a large foldable phone is that it is no different from an ordinary phone in daily use, and can be used as a small tablet when unfolded.the main feature of the small folding phone is "exquisite". after folding, the small appearance has a high-end texture. @数码闲聊站 said that the sales of xiaomi's small folding phone exceeded expectations, and mobile phone manufacturers will pay more attention to small folding products in the future. you know, the sales of xiaomi's folding screen mobile phones are relatively poor. in the first half of this year, it failed to enter the top five in china. small folding phones can sell well, which shows how popular this type of product is.

however, whether it is the large folding (double folding) or the small folding, it is difficult to provide a user experience that is truly comparable to a large-screen tablet.the mate xt triple-folding phone has a size of 10.2 inches when unfolded, catching up with the matepad. with huawei's optimization and adaptation, the experience when unfolded is almost the same as that of a tablet. not only huawei, some mobile phone manufacturers around the world have noticed the problem of the double-folding phone not being big enough early on, and have successively announced some ideas about triple-folding phones.

i believe it won’t be too long before we see the second manufacturer launching a tri-fold mobile phone, but who will follow suit first is still a question mark.

the next follower,honor or transsion?

so far, two companies in the world have clearly revealed the news of three-fold mobile phones. the first is transsion, which is known as the "king of africa". its products are basically not sold domestically, but they are very popular in overseas markets. in the second quarter of this year, its sales volume even slightly exceeded oppo, ranking fifth in the world.

in the past, transsion mainly focused on entry-level smartphones. after continuous breakthroughs in sales, transsion is also trying to impact the high-end market. some time ago, it demonstrated the three-fold concept phone "phantom ultimate 2". it is reported that the product is expected to be released at the mobile world congress (mwc 2025) in march next year.

(photo source: transsion)

however, @数码闲聊站 said that the phantom ultimate 2 is just a concept phone and the probability of mass production is extremely low. it is understandable that the cost of a three-fold phone is high, and if the sales volume is not good, it is likely to lose money.transsion has limited influence in the high-end market, and considering the risk factors, it probably won't rashly launch a tri-fold phone.

(source: weibo screenshot)

the second manufacturer that may launch a three-fold mobile phone is honor mentioned above. also at the ifa 2024 conference, zhao ming revealed some information about the three-fold mobile phone to lei technology and other media, and said that all honor mobile phone designs were determined a year in advance, and there was no possibility of copying huawei.

earlier, zhao ming revealed that the technology of honor's three-fold mobile phone has been completed. now he revealed to lei technology that the design of the mobile phone was finalized a year ago, indicating that honor's first three-fold mobile phone is very close to being released.flagship models equipped with qualcomm snapdragon 8 gen 4, mediatek dimensity 9400 and other chips will be released as early as october. the honor tri-fold phone may be released later and is expected to be released at the end of this year or the first quarter of next year.

(photo source: lei technology)

in terms of technical strength, as a domestic veteran and leading mobile phone manufacturer, honor's foundation is unquestionable. in terms of brand recognition, honor ranked second in the domestic folding screen mobile phone market with a share of 23.3% in the first half of 2024, second only to huawei, slightly higher than vivo and oppo, and far exceeding samsung and other brands.sales data can prove thathonor has a high degree of consumer recognition in the foldable screen mobile phone market, which also lays the market foundation for the three-fold mobile phones that honor may launch in the future.

(image source: idc)

combining the information released by honor at ifa and the upgrade changes of iphone 16, the development of the mobile phone industry has fallen into a bottleneck period, and the main configurations and functions are becoming more and more similar. in addition to apple, the designs of flagship models of other brands are becoming more and more similar, with a slightly curved front + hole-punch screen and a circular ring design on the back.mobile phone manufacturers focus on breakthroughs mainly in ai. for example, honor’s ai agent will be launched first in the magic 7 series and will be released as early as next month.

huawei was the first to take the plunge and launched a tri-fold phone, which brought another possibility to the entire mobile phone industry, but can tri-fold phones become the next trend?

a new trend is coming.be careful when entering

no mobile phone manufacturer is willing to develop only in the mid- and low-end market, but it is extremely difficult to impact the high-end market. folding screens are an opportunity. however, at this stage, the folding screen technology of major manufacturers is relatively mature, and it is difficult to distinguish the levels of experience. tri-folding mobile phones may become a new outlet.

however, it is still not easy to take advantage of the triple-folding trend and gain more market share in the high-end market. at huawei's extraordinary brand ceremony and hongmeng intelligent driving new product launch conference, yu chengdong announced the price of mate xt and complained that "the cost is too high." indeed, although many years of research and development of dual-folding mobile phones have accumulated certain technology and experience for manufacturers, as shown in the dual-folding mobile phones in 2019 and 2020,the current three-fold mobile phone technology and supply chain are not mature enough, and the cost may be difficult to control in a short period of time.

huawei's brand influence and premium ability allowed it to price the mate xt at 19,999 yuan. therefore, only after solving the cost problem can other mobile phone manufacturers focus on tri-fold models. in the early stage, other mobile phone manufacturers can launch some trial products to test the market and consumer acceptance.

secondly, with the technological updates and iterations, the weight of dual-folding mobile phones has been effectively controlled and they are no longer "bricks". for example, the honor magic v3 weighs only 226g, which is lighter than some straight-screen flagships. however, if a screen is added, the weight is likely to reach around 300g, affecting the feel during daily use.

finally, only when the application is perfectly adapted to the three-fold mode can the characteristics of the three-fold mobile phone be fully utilized.app adaptation is easy to say, but it is actually quite difficult. as of 2023, there are about 2.65 million apps monitored in the domestic app market, and not all developers are willing to cooperate with mobile phone manufacturers to actively complete adaptation. in the dual-folding mobile phone, we can clearly see that huawei's app adaptation performance is almost unique.

(photo source: lei technology)

there is a high probability that tri-fold mobile phones will become the next trend in the mobile phone industry, but if manufacturers want to use tri-fold mobile phones to once again impact the high-end market, they need to solve the above three major problems first. the prerequisite for a share of the cake is to have good enough "teeth".fortunately, faced with various difficulties and obstacles in the development of the mobile phone industry, domestic companies have never given up. as a result, global mobile phone giants such as huawei, honor, oppo, vivo, and xiaomi were born.

according to digital blogger @厂长是关同学, another chinese manufacturer has planned a three-fold mobile phone. considering that transsion phones are not sold in china, the other manufacturer mentioned by the blogger is likely to be one of xiaomi, oppo, or vivo.

when dual-folding mobile phones came out, some mobile phone manufacturers made slow product progress and missed the best time to grow and develop.the trend of tri-fold mobile phones is coming. i believe that manufacturers will not miss it again. there is a high probability that they will collectively launch tri-fold models in 2025. a great battle is slowly unfolding.

ifa100, lei technology reporting team returns triumphantly!

from september 6th to september 10th, ifa100 (berlin international consumer electronics show) kicked off in berlin, germany.

on the occasion of ifa's 100th anniversary, ai big model technology is profoundly reshaping the technology industry. lei technology sent a reporting team to conduct front-line, three-dimensional and professional reporting on ifa 100, outputting more than 40 contents. lei technology's rich experience in reporting on major technology exhibitions such as ces, mwc and awe ensures the timeliness, richness and professionalism of lei technology's ifa reporting content. the relevant content is disseminated in lei technology's 3 million wechat fan matrix and 10 million new media matrix, and the total network reading/playback volume is estimated to exceed 5 million.

we look forward to seeing you again at the next ifa, ces, mwc, awe and other world technology exhibitions!