news

한어Русский языкEnglishFrançaisIndonesianSanskrit日本語DeutschPortuguêsΕλληνικάespañolItalianoSuomalainenLatina

core tips:

1. this year, there are as many as 17 films released during the mid-autumn festival, making it the most crowded mid-autumn festival in history. from the current perspective, "wild child" is the most popular and may become the box office champion of the mid-autumn festival.

2. the summer season ended with a dismal box office performance of 11.6 billion yuan. it is a consensus that the demand for movie-watching has yet to recover, and the mid-autumn festival season is still mired in a quagmire.

3. the managers of cinema chains are not optimistic about the upcoming national day period: "the main reason is that audiences are unwilling to watch movies and their willingness to watch movies has decreased. before this problem is solved, the effects of other periods except the spring festival period may not be good."

tomorrow we will welcome the mid-autumn festival holiday, and the mid-autumn festival movie season will also start at the same time. september has always been the off-season for the film market, and the mid-autumn festival season has always been a bit awkward, sandwiched between the two popular seasons of summer vacation and national day. however, as a legal holiday, the box office performance of the mid-autumn festival is always better than usual, so it should not be underestimated.

this year's summer season ended dismally with a box office of 11.6 billion yuan, with only two films earning more than 1 billion yuan at the box office, returning to a decade ago, when the 2014 summer season closed at 11.2 billion yuan. previously, the "phoenix cinema manager index" brought together a number of cinema managers and film critics to analyze this year's summer season. they believed that most of the box office of this year's summer films failed to meet expectations. except for films such as "catch the doll" and "silent killer", most other films lost money. it has become a consensus that the demand for watching movies has yet to recover.

after the bleak summer season, this year's mid-autumn festival will have as many as 17 films released, making it the "most crowded" mid-autumn festival in history. looking at the mid-autumn festival in the past six years, in 2020 and 2023, the time of mid-autumn festival and national day overlapped, and in the other four years, the time of the two was staggered. it can be seen that in 2021, the year with the most films released during the mid-autumn festival, there were only 8 films, and last year's mid-autumn festival and national day were connected, with a total of only 12 new films released. this year's 17 films far exceed previous years in terms of quantity, but how will this year's mid-autumn festival perform in terms of box office?

there are many films in the mid-autumn festival this year, so each has its own highlights. "wild child" focuses on street children, "determination to run away" focuses on the topic of female independence, and "wish you happiness!" brings together many hot topics such as the cool-off period for divorces, elderly people who have lost their only child, surrogacy, etc. in addition, there are also the most popular comedy movies during the holiday, the comedy "avengers" starring qiao shan and ma li, and the suspense film "all suspects" starring xiao shenyang and qin hailu.

there are three films that will be re-screened during the mid-autumn festival, namely "journey to the west: the monkey king 3: the white bone demon", "the wandering earth 2", and "i am nezha 2: hero returns". it is worth mentioning that the official answer to the re-screening of "the wandering earth 2" is that the re-screening of "the wandering earth 2" during the mid-autumn festival in 2024 is not a re-screening in the traditional sense, but a new form of release. the re-screening version this time is the 3d version, which has been upgraded in technology to provide a more immersive and shocking viewing experience.

the most watched film in this mid-autumn festival is none other than "wild child" starring wang junkai. this film is the first to be released in the mid-autumn festival. it dared to be released in advance on september 13, which also shows to a certain extent that it is "not afraid to be watched". the release date of "wild child" was also quite tortuous. on july 3 this year, the film announced that it would be advanced in the morning, but issued a statement in the evening of the same day, announcing its withdrawal and urgently withdrawing from the summer season. it was indeed surprising that it was advanced in the morning and withdrawn in the evening in one day. the official explanation was "due to the progress of the later stage". at that time, this explanation caused a lot of discussion, and the topic #wild child withdrawal reason# remained hot.

however, despite the previous withdrawal, the film has the participation of top stars like wang junkai, plus the advantage of the subject matter adapted from a true story, and the endorsement of the director's previous work "my sister", the audience is still full of expectations for "wild child". the theater manager also has high hopes for this film. in an interview with phoenix entertainment, the theater manager xu believes that the film is a realistic film that the current audience likes to watch, and it follows the tear-jerking model of "my sister", and will become the box office champion of the mid-autumn festival.

the cinema manager commented on the film and believed that "wild child" should be the leader of the mid-autumn festival, but because the film was previously released and then urgently withdrawn on the day, it is now facing problems such as the limit of publicity and promotion after being scheduled, and it is difficult to reach a high box office. previously, "my sister" finally won more than 800 million box office in an unpopular period. the cinema manager predicted that the final box office of "wild child" would be 350 million, with an estimated screening ratio of 26% and an overall score of 7.5 points. according to statistics, the box office of "wild child" on the first day of its release was 14.6 million.

comedy has always been a guarantee of box office success. the mid-autumn festival comedy film "avenge the past" is still strong enough in terms of its lineup. qiao shan, ma li, bao beier, pan binlong, and xiu rui are all comedians. the combination of "qiao shan + ma li" has been expected by many audiences. this is also the second northeast comedy of the two actors after "life is not strange". however, the theater manager believes that the film seems to be suspected of piggybacking on "life is not strange", and although the comedy genre has advantages, the director of the film is not well-known, and the publicity and promotion are relatively poor, and the box office prospects are worrying. if the film wants to run out in the fierce mid-autumn festival, it must quickly gain the advantage of quality and quickly complete the inversion of the film ratio and box office ratio. the theater manager predicts that the final box office of the film will be 46.25 million, the film ratio is expected to be 10.8%, and the comprehensive score is 5.9 points. as of press time, the film's comprehensive box office (including pre-sales) is 2.79 million.

realistic themes have always been an indispensable genre of films in every period. discussions on hot topics and explorations of real life can easily resonate with the audience and have the opportunity to gain a long-tail box office effect through high word-of-mouth. the film "wish you happiness!", starring two powerful actors xiao yang and song jia, focuses on topics such as the cool-off period for divorces and test-tube babies, and has been widely discussed on social platforms.

in an interview with phoenix entertainment, the cinema manager zhu said, "lianrui is very good at releasing this kind of reality-themed movies. the quality of this one is quite good. douban estimates that it will be around 7.5 points, and the upper limit of the box office is relatively high." the cinema manager commented on the film and believed that the reality topic focused on by "wish you happiness!" was highly discussed, but the actors' box office appeal was not enough, and it would suffer in terms of box office performance. it is predicted that the final box office of the film will be 100 million, the proportion of the film is expected to be 16.3%, and the overall score is 7.1 points. as of press time, the film's overall box office (including pre-sales) is 3.29 million. it is worth mentioning that in the next month, xiao yang will have 3 movies released. in addition to this "wish you happiness!", "safe entry and exit" and "the road to fire" will be released during the national day. some netizens joked that "xiao yang may be the biggest winner this year."

in addition to the above, the art film "determination to run away" starring yongmei is relatively niche, but its emotional resonance is likely to be the key to the box office comeback. the film is adapted from the real experience of the internet celebrity self-driving travel blogger "50-year-old aunt self-driving travel", focusing on the inner world of middle-aged women. as of press time, the film's comprehensive box office (including pre-sales) has reached 7.43 million.

the mid-autumn festival is over, and the national day is coming soon. this year's spring festival and summer vacations failed to meet expectations, causing this year's mainland box office to lag far behind last year, so the national day is extremely critical. as of september 14, 10 new films have been confirmed to be released during the national day, including "volunteer army: battle of survival", "crisis route", "safe entry and exit", "road to fire", "panda project", "only green", "hot good man", "new big head son and little head dad 6: mini adventure", "pippi lu and lu xixi's 309 dark room", and "749 bureau".

in the previous forecast of the national day period, cinema manager manager zhu told phoenix entertainment that "the main reason is that the audience is unwilling to watch movies and their willingness to watch movies has decreased. before this problem is solved, the effect of other periods except the spring festival period may not be good." manager xu suggested that film producers can better polish their works, find the right period, and find the right way to promote and distribute them, so as not to deceive the audience by not delivering the right products.