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will it be useful to give 10,000 yuan to every resident?

2024-09-13

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in the current situation, many people may feel that it would be great if money could fall from the sky.

you know what, this good thing really does exist.

macau launched a large cash giveaway campaign in july.

simply put, the government will distribute cash directly to local residents of macau and put it into the residents' pockets.

each permanent resident will be distributed 10,000 macau patacas (equivalent to nearly 8,900 yuan in rmb).

each non-permanent resident will receive 6,000 macau patacas (equivalent to more than 5,300 yuan).

simply put, everyone will get a share. according to the plan, the macao sar government will distribute a total of 7.36 billion macau patacas, accounting for approximately 6.87% of the annual budget.

in fact, it’s not just macau that’s directly spending money.

what do you think about this matter?

macau’s “cash sharing plan” is to implement the “policy address for the fiscal year 2024” made in november last year. in other words, this money has already been arranged in the formal budget.

the policy benefits almost all residents in macau without discrimination, including 717,000 permanent residents and 31,000 non-permanent residents. macau’s total population at the end of 2023 will be only 683,700 (of which 571,000 are local residents and the rest are foreign employees or students, etc.).

what does this amount of money mean in the local area?

in macau, there is a huge gap in income between different occupations. for example, the average monthly income of highly educated professionals is around 40,000 macau patacas, while that of ordinary service staff, artisan workers, drivers and assemblers will probably not exceed 15,000 macau patacas. if they are unskilled workers, their income will hover around the local minimum wage standard, which is 6,000 to 7,000 macau patacas.

according to data released by the statistics and census bureau of the macao sar government, the median monthly income of macao’s total employed population in the second quarter of this year was mop 17,900.

this is roughly equivalent to half a month's income for an ordinary macao resident.

how to distribute this money?

the relevant departments will transfer cash into the bank accounts of seven major groups of people in batches, and before the end of july, will mail crossed checks (checks that cannot be cashed for security reasons) to all remaining eligible residents who do not have registered bank accounts. even checks received by underage beneficiaries are arranged to be deposited into the guardian's account.

if you don’t even receive a check, the government has provided a hotline number and offline processing address on its website.

even for the 48,000 macau residents living abroad, the government will considerately send checks to the mainland, hong kong, china and abroad.

it is truly neat, neat, meticulous and thoughtful.

but in fact, this so-called "cash sharing plan" has been implemented in macau for 17 consecutive years.

it was first proposed and implemented in 2008 by the then chief executive of macau, edmund ho hau wah, with the aim of sharing the fruits of economic development, combating inflation and the impact of the 2008 financial crisis. macau citizens generally call this plan "giving out money."

as mentioned before, according to the two qualification levels of permanent and non-permanent residents, the amount has been gradually increased from 5,000 mop and 3,000 mop per person at the beginning to 10,000 mop and 6,000 mop today.

over the past 17 years, a total of nearly 100 billion macau patacas have been issued.

strictly speaking, it is not uncommon for the government to directly distribute money.

the most discussed topic on the domestic internet is that during the covid-19 pandemic, the united states issued a total of approximately $867 billion in three rounds in march 2020, december 2020, and march 2021, covering about half of americans, including individuals with an income of no more than $75,000 and couples with an income of no more than $150,000 (the higher the income, the lower the subsidy amount). among them:

march 2020, first round: approximately us$292 billion (an average of us$1,200 per adult and us$500 per child, distributed to approximately 158 million people).

december 2020, second round: approximately $164 billion ($600 per adult and child, distributed to approximately 157 million people).

march 2021, third round: approximately us$410 billion (an average of us$1,400 per adult and child, distributed to approximately 171 million people).

in addition, countries that have adopted cash distribution plans during the covid-19 epidemic include japan, canada, australia, singapore, etc., with the corresponding total distribution amounts being approximately 12 billion, 61.8 billion, 10.8 billion and 1.2 billion us dollars respectively.

germany, italy, malaysia and other countries have also adopted similar subsidy programs to cover different groups of people in need based on their own conditions.

hong kong has also distributed money.

hong kong's total population is almost 10 times that of macau (hong kong's total population in mid-2024 is 7.5318 million), and its total economic output is more than 10 times that of macau (nominal gdp in 2023 is approximately hk$3.3 trillion).

during the epidemic, both electronic consumption vouchers and cash distribution methods have been used in hong kong to alleviate residents' living pressure and boost the economy.

on february 26, 2020, hong kong's fifth financial secretary paul chan mo-po released the 2020-2021 budget, which proposed a one-time payment of hk$10,000 to hong kong permanent residents aged 18 and above to revitalize hong kong's economy and ease the economic pressure on citizens, costing hk$71 billion. this amount is equivalent to 15.67% of the government's fiscal revenue that year.

that year, the hong kong government spent a total of hk$870 billion, and the fiscal deficit reached the highest level in history.

hong kong residents queue at the consumer voucher scheme secretariat

subsequently, the hong kong government stopped distributing cash and instead launched an electronic consumption voucher program.

in 2021, the hong kong government will distribute a total of hk$5,000 to each hong kong resident aged 18 and above in three batches in august, october and december. the distribution channels include mainstream electronic payment platforms, including octopus, alipayhk, wechat pay hk and tap & go.

by 2022, the hong kong government will increase the amount of electronic consumption vouchers to hk$10,000, which will be distributed in two installments in april and august.

the discussion on whether or not to give money to residents depends on what pressing problems are being solved. different countries have different national conditions, but the objectives of policies are often similar.

as mentioned earlier, when macau’s “cash sharing plan” was proposed in 2008, its purpose was to share the fruits of economic development and combat inflation and the impact of the 2008 financial crisis.

let’s talk about the achievements of the sharing economy first.

macau has almost no primary and secondary industries, and the entire economy is highly dependent on the gaming, tourism, convention and exhibition industries, etc.

in particular, the gaming industry, which supports its status as asia's gambling capital, is expected to have total industry revenue of 216 billion patacas in 2024, from which the government will receive approximately 75.6 billion patacas in taxes, accounting for 70% of the total fiscal budget revenue of the sar government.

this industrial structure dominated by one industry has brought enormous wealth, but it has also often caused local people to worry about the lack of diversification of macau's economy.

therefore, the government's cash sharing policy and secondary distribution of income can be regarded as a transfer payment strategy. combined with public housing policies, it can promote social equity to a certain extent.

let’s talk about helping residents resist inflation.

inflation is the fate of a paper money society.

after the asian financial crisis in 1998, macau experienced a period of deflation and economic downturn, but gradually recovered after entering the new century.

between 2005 and 2015, driven by the rise of the mainland economy, macau's service industry was very prosperous and local wage levels rose, but this was followed by an overall rise in prices, especially in the real estate market.

during this period, macau's comprehensive price index growth rate reached a maximum of 8.61% (2008), and the average annual inflation rate was between 4-6%, which indeed brought great living pressure to some residents.

one difference between macau and the economies of hong kong and singapore is that due to its over-reliance on the gaming industry and its relatively smaller economic scale, its inflation rate tends to be higher and more volatile, which is very unfriendly to a part of the people whose income is "averaged".

as for resisting the impact of economic crises, this is easier to understand. no matter whether it is as small as macau or as large as the united states, the government of any market economy cannot sit idly by when a crisis comes.

taking the united states as an example, according to data from the u.s. census bureau, the median household income in the united states will be approximately u.s. $70,784 in 2021.

it seems very high, but the united states is notorious for income inequality, with the top 10% of households owning nearly 70% of total wealth, while the bottom 50% of americans only hold 2% of the country's wealth.

in addition, the official poverty rate in the united states in 2021 was approximately 11.6%, equivalent to approximately 37.9 million people living below the poverty line, and the income of many american families is extremely unstable.

before the covid-19 pandemic, the u.s. personal savings rate (the percentage of disposable income that people save) fluctuated around 7%-8%, and according to a 2022 federal reserve survey, nearly 40% of americans would have trouble paying an unexpected expense of $400 without borrowing or selling anything, while the average household carried about $5,300 in credit card debt.

all of this will be a disaster when the crisis comes.

at the beginning of 2020, when the market had not yet reacted, the unemployment rate in the united states was only 3.5%. but by april 2020, when the epidemic in the united states exacerbated social chaos and the unemployment rate soared to 14%, the situation can be imagined.

the tertiary industry (service industry) in the united states accounts for about 80% of the total economy. in the face of economic recession, directly giving money to residents seems to be a last resort.

an analysis report focusing on "direct cash subsidies during the epidemic" in the united states pointed out that in new york city alone, the poverty rate was reduced from 35% to 20% in 2020 through stimulus checks and uib programs (unemployment insurance benefits).

we talked about the financial style of the american people earlier. taking this into consideration, this cash distribution by the government is equivalent to pulling some people back from the brink of poverty when they suddenly lose their jobs, allowing them to better cope with issues such as rent, water and electricity bills, and daily food and clothing, and also avoiding large-scale credit defaults.

is giving out money really a good idea?

this is the case with many things in this world. there are many things to do, but wanting to do them does not mean being able to do them.

if the government wants to give money to residents to encourage them to consume, it also depends on whether it has the strength and confidence to do so, and whether it can implement and track the results in specific operations. this requires extremely high governance capabilities.

the united states is very special. it can do this thanks to its strong economic foundation, mature financial system, sound fiscal policy, and the unrivaled dominance of the us dollar.

in terms of fiscal control, at least at this stage, it is difficult for other economies to compare with the united states.

in addition to the world's largest economy and ample fiscal space, the united states has the most developed financial system in the world, with many ways to raise money and send it out quickly.

the u.s. tax collection and management system is also very strong and has a large amount of income information on residents and businesses.

this will define the group of people to whom the money will be given.

and most importantly, the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency gives the u.s. government almost unlimited borrowing power.

this global monetary trust allows the us government to print money or increase debt with lower inflation risk to support its own economic stimulus policies.

specifically, the u.s. federal government's total expenditure in 2020 was approximately $6.55 trillion, an increase of approximately $2.1 trillion from $4.45 trillion in 2019, but the federal government's total revenue of $3.42 trillion in 2020 was $40 billion less than the previous year.

on the one hand, the economic recession caused by the epidemic has reduced fiscal revenue, and on the other hand, the additional rescue plans implemented have increased the fiscal burden.

as a result, the united states started printing money at full capacity, raising the fiscal deficit to $3.13 trillion in 2020. by the end of the year, the deficit ratio was 15.2%, the highest level since world war ii.

by 2023, the u.s. federal debt will reach approximately $32.6 trillion, about 1.19 times its gdp.

if too many banknotes are printed, they will naturally become worthless.

in 2020, the rise in the us dollar prices of crude oil, heavy metals and agricultural products circulating around the world, as well as the rise in us stocks and imported inflation in some importing countries (inflation caused by rising prices of imported goods) are largely related to the depreciation of the us dollar.

however, the united states can make the whole world take the blame.

of course, domestic inflation in the united states has also broken through the skyline.

to put it bluntly, it is the people all over the world who are helping the united states bear the inflationary pressure.

let’s talk about macau again. this small economy with an independent currency cannot learn from the united states to shift the risk of inflation, so it can only live within its means based on its own financial situation.

as mentioned earlier, the macao special administrative region expects its fiscal budget revenue in 2024 to be 107.1 billion patacas, of which about 70% will come from revenue from the gaming industry. other income items include corporate taxes, personal income tax, land transfer fees, etc.

according to the report, the total budget expenditure in 2024 is 105.9 billion macau patacas, and expenditure items include public investment (infrastructure and public housing projects, etc.), social welfare expenditure (including cash sharing, medical care, electricity subsidies, etc.), public services (including administrative expenses, civil servants' salary increases, etc.) and other expenditures (including public health, education and social security, etc.).

so you know why the macao sar government is so wealthy.

as we mentioned earlier, the total budget expenditure for the cash sharing plan this year is mop 7.36 billion, accounting for approximately 6.87% of the sar government’s budget revenue and 6.95% of its budget expenditure this year.

the sar government can certainly afford this money, so the pressure is not that great.

macau has highly developed infrastructure, a small land area and stable financial resources. as a special administrative region that enjoys a high degree of economic autonomy, in addition to maintaining the normal operation of the government and public utilities, the macau sar government has no financial pressure from national defense, diplomacy, major infrastructure, etc., and can calmly spend money on people's livelihood and welfare.

in essence, this money is not the issuance of new currency, but just a fiscal transfer payment, which is broken down into small pieces and returned to society, so it will not cause a new round of inflation.

once this money falls into the hands of residents, it will generate new local consumption, which will help boost the activity of macau's economy and generate new economic growth.

it is indeed not easy to learn.