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on september 12, eastern time, the three major u.s. stock indexes all closed higher, with technology stocks leading the gains.the nasdaq and s&p 500 rose for four consecutive trading days.

the u.s. department of labor reported that the u.s. ppi rose 0.2% year-on-year in august, in line with expectations. at the same time, the european central bank announced another 25 basis point interest rate cut.

gold and oil prices both rose sharply. as of the close, spot gold rose 1.88% to $2,558.485 per ounce, and comex gold futures rose 1.85% to $2,587.2 per ounce, both hitting record highs.

openai announced on its official website that it has begun pushing the openai o1 preview model to all subscribed users - the previously widely anticipated "strawberry" model.

nasdaq and s&p

four consecutive trading days of gains

september 12, eastern time,all three major u.s. stock indexesreceiverise, with technology stocks leading the gains. among them, the nasdaq and s&p indexes rose for four consecutive trading days. after the turbulence of the previous trading day, investors are evaluating us economic data and its impact on the federal reserve's monetary policy.

as of the close, the dow jones industrial average rose 0.58% to 41,096.77 points; the nasdaq rose 1.00% to 17,569.68 points; and the s&p 500 rose 0.75% to 5,595.76 points.

the “seven sisters” of u.s. technology stocks rose.google-a, meta rose more than 2%, nvidia, amazon rose more than 1%, tesla,microsoft rose nearly 1%.apple rose slightly.

nvidia closed up 1.9%, extending its gains on wednesday, when its shares surged more than 8% after ceo jensen huang said demand for its blackwell artificial intelligence chip was "huge," almost single-handedly leading wednesday's market reversal.

huang renxun said that nvidia's products have become the most sought-after commodities in the technology industry, and customers are competing for limited supply, especially the limited growth rate of supply of ai chip blackwell, which has frustrated some customers. he also hinted that if necessary, nvidia will reduce its dependence on tsmc and turn to other chip manufacturing suppliers.

a number of important economic data are released

in terms of economic data, the u.s. department of labor reported on thursday that the u.s. ppi rose 0.2% year-on-year in august, in line with expectations. this is the last inflation data before the federal reserve holds its monetary policy meeting. the market generally expects the federal reserve to cut interest rates next week. at the same time, the european central bank also announced another 25 basis point interest rate cut.

the u.s. department of labor reported that the producer price index (ppi), an inflation indicator that measures the cost of final demand goods and services received by producers, rose 0.2% year-on-year, in line with the average expectation of economists surveyed.

excluding food and energy, which are more volatile, the ppi in the united states rose by 0.3% month-on-month in august, slightly higher than the market's general estimate of 0.2%. excluding trade services, the core ppi rose by 0.3% month-on-month in august.

compared with a year ago, the ppi in august rose by 1.7% year-on-year. excluding food, energy and trade, the core ppi rose by 3.3% year-on-year.

prior to this, the august consumer price index (cpi) released early wednesday showed that core inflation, excluding volatile food and energy prices, continued to rise, which led investors to lower their expectations for aggressive interest rate cuts by the federal reserve.

"the cpi inflation report we saw on wednesday confirmed a trend we've been seeing over the last few months, and i think it's appropriate that the fed is now focusing less on inflation and more on economic growth," said lauren goodwin, chief market strategist at new york life investments. "the fed's approach has completely changed the market's reaction."

the international monetary fund (imf) said that based on the information exchanged, the federal reserve is "about to" launch a easing cycle; us economic growth is expected to slow down and the upside risk of inflation has weakened.

in terms of overseas central bank news, on september 12, central european time, the european central bank, headquartered in frankfurt, germany, decided to lower the deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 3.5%; lower the refinancing rate by 60 basis points to 3.65%; and lower the marginal lending rate by 60 basis points to 3.9%.

in june this year, the european central bank cut all three key interest rates by 25 basis points, the first rate cut since it stopped raising interest rates in october last year. in july, the european central bank decided to keep the three key interest rates in the euro area unchanged.

gold prices hit record highs

on the evening of september 12, spot gold continued to rise, setting a new record high of $2,560.12 during the session./ounce。as of the close, spot gold rose 1.88% to $2,558.485 per ounce, setting a new record closing high. spot silver rose 4.15% to $29.857 per ounce. comex gold futures rose 1.85% to $2,587.2 per ounce, setting a new record closing high. comex silver futures rose 4.17% to $30.215 per ounce.

the market generally believes that the surge in gold prices is influenced by expectations of a rate cut in the united states. as u.s. data shows an economic slowdown, the market expects the federal reserve to cut interest rates next week. the u.s. department of labor said that the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits increased by 2,000 to 230,000 after seasonal adjustments.

“we’re heading toward a lower interest rate environment, so gold becomes more attractive,” said alex ebkarian, chief operating officer at allegiance gold. “i think we’re probably going to see more frequent smaller rate cuts rather than one big rate cut.”

ole hansen, head of commodity strategy at saxo bank, said: "the combination of factors such as the ecb rate cut, a small increase in initial jobless claims and ppi is enough to push gold prices to a record high."

analysts said that after the release of us ppi data, gold prices reached $2,550, a new high.however, the optimistic market risk sentiment has curbed investors' enthusiasm for safe-haven assets. the current long-term trend of gold is bullish, and it has hit the bullish target of $2,550, which opens the channel for the next upward target of $2,570 and is expected to go higher.

international oil prices rise

on september 12, eastern time, due to the impact of hurricane francine hitting the gulf of mexico and disrupting oil production, the price of light crude oil futures for october delivery on the new york mercantile exchange rose by $1.66, or 2.5%, to close at $68.97 per barrel. the price of london brent crude oil futures for november delivery rose by $1.36 to close at $71.97 per barrel, an increase of 1.93%.

in the previous trading day, wti crude oil futures closed up more than 2% on wednesday, also driven by the storm's threat to crude oil supply.

according to andy lipow, president of lipow oil associates, as of 1 p.m. central time on wednesday, nearly 675,000 barrels per day of crude oil production capacity in the gulf of mexico had been shut down, and he also predicted that the number could rise to more than 1 million barrels on thursday.

openai releases a machine learning system with reasoning capabilities

artificial intelligence model o1

in the early hours of friday morning beijing time, openai announced on its official website that it had begun to push the openai o1 preview model, the previously widely anticipated "strawberry" model, to all subscribers. openai said that for complex reasoning tasks, the new model represents a new level of artificial intelligence capabilities, so it is worth resetting the count to 1 and giving it a new name different from the "gpt-4" series.

openai once explained that gpt-4, which will be released in 2023, is similar to the intelligence level of a high school student, while gpt-5 will complete the growth of ai from "high school student to doctorate". this o1 model is a key step in this process.

compared with existing large models such as gpt-4o, openai o1 can solve more difficult reasoning problems while improving the mechanistic defects in previous models.

jerry tworek, head of research at openai, revealed that the training behind the o1 model is fundamentally different from previous products. the previous gpt model was designed to mimic the patterns in its training data, while the training of o1 is designed to let it solve problems independently. in the process of reinforcement learning, a reward and punishment mechanism is used to "educate" ai to use "thinking chains" to deal with problems, just like how humans learn to disassemble and analyze problems.

according to the test, the o1 model was able to score 83% in the international mathematical olympiad qualifying exam, while gpt-4o could only correctly solve 13% of the problems. in the programming ability competition codeforces, the o1 model scored 89% of the percentile, while gpt-4o only scored 11%.

the company announced that chatgpt subscribers will have access to the two new models starting september 12, but the number of messages per week for o1-preview is currently limited to 30 and for o1-mini to 50.

enterprise chatgpt and education users can access these two models starting next week. developers with api usage level 5 can start using these two models immediately, with a rate limit of 20 times per minute. openai plans to provide the o1-mini model to free users in the future, but there is no timetable yet.

source: china securities journal