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recently, rumors such as leading silicon wafer manufacturers jointly "supporting prices" and photovoltaic glass factories jointly reducing production by 30% to ease the contradiction between supply and demand have sparked speculation about whether the photovoltaic industry will get out of the low-price quagmire.

a reporter from the first financial daily summarized the latest transaction prices and market performance of various links in the photovoltaic industry chain and found that only the new order price of upstream silicon materials has increased slightly, price competition in the silicon wafer and battery links continues, and downstream component prices continue to decline, which means that the industry has not yet seen any signs of recovery.

the silicon wafer leader is “holding high prices”, has the market bought into it?

the main chain of the photovoltaic industry chain consists of four major links from top to bottom: silicon materials, silicon wafers, battery cells and modules.

according to the latest data from the silicon branch of the china nonferrous metals industry association (hereinafter referred to as the "silicon branch"), the price of polysilicon n-type rod silicon has increased slightly in the past week, and the transaction price range of n-type polysilicon has remained at 39,000 yuan/ton to 44,000 yuan/ton. the average transaction price has been adjusted to 41,600 yuan/ton, up 0.73% month-on-month.

"currently, there are differences in the transaction prices of polysilicon companies, and the transaction prices are polarized." the silicon industry branch analyzed that the main reason for the increase in the price of new n-type silicon materials this week is that small and medium-sized enterprises are currently mainly on the sidelines, and actual transactions are relatively limited. at this stage, large orders in the market are mainly traded by leading companies, which has pushed up the market average price.

industry organization infolink consulting believes that although the low price level of newly signed orders has rebounded significantly, there are still a large number of prices that were signed in the early stage and are being executed. therefore, whether the subsequent average transaction price level can continue to fall back still needs time to verify and be accepted by the downstream market.

in terms of silicon wafers, at the end of august, two leading silicon wafer companies, longi green energy (601012.sh) and tcl zhonghuan (002129.sz), both announced price increases for silicon wafers. specifically, longi green energy announced that from august 29, the price of n-g10l silicon wafers will be increased to 1.15 yuan/piece, and the price of n-g12r silicon wafers will be increased to 1.3 yuan/piece; tcl zhonghuan will adjust the price of g10n silicon wafers to 1.15 yuan/piece, the price of g12rn silicon wafers to 1.3 yuan/piece, and the price of g12n silicon wafers to 1.5 yuan/piece.

"the price adjustment in the silicon wafer industry is aimed at pushing the industry out of the quagmire of low-price competition through price adjustments, guiding the industry to avoid low-price bidding, and returning to a healthy competitive environment." a person related to longi green energy told the first financial reporter.

at that time, rumors that silicon wafer prices were about to rise ignited the photovoltaic industry, which was in the midst of a cold winter. however, judging from the market feedback in the past two weeks, the quotations of silicon wafer manufacturers have not yet been mainstreamed, and downstream battery manufacturers have not yet accepted the increase in upstream silicon wafer quotations. in the short term, they will mainly use existing silicon wafer stocks.

"at present, no actual batch transactions have been observed for the seller's quoted prices of 1.15 yuan per piece for 183n silicon wafers and 1.3 yuan per piece for 210rn silicon wafers," said industry organization infolink consulting in a report released today.

judging from the actual market transaction prices of silicon wafers in the past week, the mainstream transaction price of 183n silicon wafers is 1.06 yuan/piece to 1.08 yuan/piece, and the price of 1.1 yuan/piece to 1.15 yuan/piece for silicon wafers of this size has not yet gained much acceptance. the transaction prices of g12 and g12r specifications of silicon wafers are about 1.5 yuan/piece and 1.23 yuan/piece to 1.25 yuan/piece.

industry organization infolink consulting believes that from the perspective of current market supply and demand, the production schedule of silicon wafers and batteries in september will be adjusted down month-on-month. at the same time, companies in these two links are also planning to increase prices, but the final result still depends on the trend of downstream photovoltaic module prices. "under the situation that the supply and demand relationship has not improved significantly, the game between upstream and downstream will continue, and the subsequent growth trend is expected to face great challenges."

component prices are falling, with centralized procurement reaching a historical low of 0.655 yuan/watt

the first financial reporter noticed that although the battery cell segment tried to raise its quotation to the downstream component segment, there has been no significant increase in terminal demand recently and the price of photovoltaic components is still falling.

the bidding for the centralized procurement of photovoltaic modules will be launched in the next few months. taking the bidding price of the centralized procurement of 15gw photovoltaic modules disclosed by huaneng group on september 9 as an example, the lowest price for n-type bifacial photovoltaic modules was 0.655 yuan/watt, breaking the lowest price in the industry, and the price of leading enterprises was as low as 0.675 yuan/watt.

the historical low price of 0.655 yuan/watt means that price competition in the photovoltaic module market is still fierce and the industry has not yet emerged from the quagmire of low prices.

however, the phenomenon of low-price winning bids for photovoltaic power stations, which has been criticized by the industry as "starving competitors, tiring themselves, and cheating owners", is attracting the attention of relevant departments.

at the end of august, under the guidance of the ministry of industry and information technology's electronic information department, the china photovoltaic industry association organized a "symposium on the bidding and tendering price mechanism for photovoltaic power station construction" (hereinafter referred to as the "symposium") in beijing.

the participants of the symposium suggested that the bidding mechanism for photovoltaic power station construction should be further optimized by combining upstream and downstream enterprises, such as adopting a two-step bidding system, using a reasonable average price as the target price, and incorporating product and technology innovation, product quality reliability, intellectual property rights, sustainable operation capabilities, contract performance capabilities, social responsibility, esg, independent control, and green supply chain into the scoring system. "the china photovoltaic industry association will take the lead in compiling and publishing price indexes and cost indexes to better reflect the current prices of photovoltaic products and serve as an important basis for the price adjustment mechanism."