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in the 2026 kaohsiung mayoral race, the latest polls show that regardless of whether the democratic progressive party sends legislators lin daihua, lai ruilong, xu zhijie, chiu yiying, and xu mingchun, the former head of the taiwan authorities' labor department, to participate in the race, their support rate will all be lost to kmt legislator ko chien. former legislator guo zhengliang believes that if ko chien really represents the blue camp to run for kaohsiung mayor in 2026, it will be much easier because the opponent is not very strong. kmt taipei city councilor liu caiwei pointed out the key to ko chien's lead in the polls, and bluntly stated that residents' expectations have changed.

guo zhengliang said on the 12th that the dpp is indeed in trouble in the 2026 kaohsiung mayoral election, because in the last election, dpp kaohsiung mayor chen chi-mai ran for election with popular support because he had served as deputy head of taiwan's executive yuan. his potential opponents within the party withdrew from the election because they obeyed the status quo. however, this time all the potential mayoral candidates from the green camp are not convinced by each other, and their strength is not as strong as chen chi-mai, taiwan's "maritime affairs council chairman" guan bi-ling, and former kaohsiung green camp legislator zhao tianlin.

guo zhengliang then analyzed that due to zhao tianlin's affair before the election, guan biling's controversial handling of the "february 14" vicious ship collision incident, and chen qimai's re-election, the current situation has led to the situation that none of the green camp's strong candidates in kaohsiung can be elected. he explained that although the current five candidates are strong, kaohsiung is a large city, and their power is limited to the local area. for example, legislative representative chiu yi-ying is limited to the hakka area, and xu zhijie is in fengshan, etc. "kaohsiung has not been fully urbanized, you have to have ability in both sides (city and rural areas)."

liu caiwei also mentioned that the biggest problem of the five potential candidates of the democratic progressive party is that they have no experience in serving in the taiwan authorities, and it is relatively difficult to be elected as a county or city mayor. in addition, she analyzed the changes in the structure of kaohsiung residents and found that residents have different expectations for county and city mayors, hoping for a mayor who is in line with the world. the five candidates of the democratic progressive party are more "localized." on the other hand, ko chien is not only the executive director of the kmt think tank, but also discusses many issues that are in line with the world. he is considered to be able to bring kaohsiung to the forefront.

back to this poll, guo zhengliang judged that ko chien-en will have a much easier time in the 2026 "nine-in-one" county and city mayoral elections on the island, because he has election experience and his opponents are not as strong as last time. however, due to the pressure of not losing kaohsiung city, if the gap between the potential candidates of the green camp and ko chien-en remains the same in the second half of next year, the dpp will call someone to "airdrop". the current candidate is pan meng'an, secretary-general of taiwan leader lai ching-te.

however, liu caiwei believes that if the five members of the democratic progressive party integrate smoothly, their support will gather very quickly, and then the challenge will begin, and the kuomintang cannot take it lightly. (lin jingxian, a reporter from the strait herald in taiwan)