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the mid-autumn festival is not a busy season, and even the “stock king” moutai can’t hold up?

on september 12, the liquor sector fluctuated downward. as of the close, the liquor leader kweichow moutai fell 3.26%, falling below the 1,350 integer mark, and its share price hit a new low since november 11, 2022. other liquor stocks also fell to varying degrees.

the "mid-autumn festival disaster" suffered by liquor stocks may be related to the sales volume falling short of expectations during the mid-autumn festival peak season.

relevant brokerage reports show that the industry and capital markets are generally pessimistic about the mid-autumn festival. in recent years, the effect of the mid-autumn festival peak season has become less and less obvious, and it is difficult for demand to exceed expectations. however, judging from the recent continuous adjustments in the capital market, sufficiently pessimistic expectations have been formed. if the two festivals can withstand the stress test (the price system is smoothly landed), it is expected that the stock price will reverse.

share price hits 22-month low

during today's trading, liquor stocks fluctuated and fell, even leading to a decline in the consumer sector.

take the liquor leader kweichow moutai as an example. after opening at 1,380 yuan per share today, it continued to fall, falling to a low of 1,334.91 yuan per share. as of the close, kweichow moutai reported 1,335.06 yuan per share, down 3.26%, with a total market value of 1.68 trillion yuan, and the stock price hit a new low since november 11, 2022.

other liquor stocks also fell. gujing gongjiu closed down 4%, shanxi fenjiu closed down 3.6%, luzhou laojiao fell more than 3%, jin shiyuan, shuijingfang and wuliangye all fell more than 2%, and shede wine fell nearly 2%.

the food and beverage team of china merchants securities believes that the industry and capital markets are generally pessimistic about the mid-autumn festival. from a fundamental perspective, the mid-autumn festival peak season effect has become less and less obvious in recent years. under this trend, it is difficult for demand to exceed expectations. however, this year, the supply side has been differentiated. high-end and mid-high-end products are more cautious than last year, and the policy investment in local wine is relatively positive. however, judging from the recent continuous adjustments in the capital market, sufficiently pessimistic expectations have been formed. if the festival can withstand the stress test (the price system is smoothly implemented), it is expected that the stock price will reverse.

regarding the overall performance of high-end liquor, the above-mentioned team of china merchants securities believes that the overall performance of high-end liquor is in line with the market's neutral expectations. on the demand side, moutai and wuliangye still reflect rigid demand attributes in their respective price ranges. although the overall demand in the industry is weak, the brand status has brought about further concentration of market share. moutai's price continued to rise in august due to the delivery rhythm, and fell after the recent arrival. structurally, the small boxes with more shipments fell relatively sharply, but the price remained at around 2,550 yuan, and the prices of loose bottles and large boxes were around 2,400 yuan, which was basically the same as before the increase in august. wuliangye has strictly controlled the delivery rhythm this year, and the new price payment was started before the peak season, which reflects the company's determination to maintain the price plate.

for mid-to-high-end liquor, from the perspective of actual demand, due to the decline in the number of banquets and the contraction of corporate budgets, the mid-to-high-end prices have driven sales down month-on-month, which is more obvious in national brands, and wholesale prices are mostly on a downward trend.

chairman of moutai: ensure the completion of the annual 15% growth target

it is worth mentioning that on september 9 (monday), kweichow moutai held a semi-annual performance briefing for 2024 and responded to some hot issues.

an investor asked on the interactive platform: "can moutai achieve a 15% growth this year? can you also predict what the growth rate will be next year?"

zhang deqin, chairman of kweichow moutai, said that the company's business objectives are scientifically formulated based on multiple factors such as production, market, and base wine. the board of directors and the production and operation team will perform their duties diligently and conscientiously to ensure that the annual 15% growth target of total operating income is achieved as scheduled. the company will disclose the growth rate for next year in a timely manner after making decisions through relevant procedures.

regarding the fluctuations in the terminal price of moutai liquor, zhang deqin said that moutai attaches great importance to the market situation. the company conducts in-depth market research in various provinces and regions, holds market work meetings in various provinces and regions, and holds in-depth discussions and exchanges with representatives of channels such as distributors, e-commerce, group purchasing, and provincial and regional self-operated businesses. it continues to improve a strategic and tactical system that is both systematic and coordinated, and the overall market situation is relatively stable.

kweichow moutai's 2024 semi-annual report shows that in the first half of the year, kweichow moutai achieved a total operating income of 83.451 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.56%, exceeding the annual target growth rate; net profit attributable to the parent company was 41.696 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.88%. the "i moutai" digital marketing platform achieved a tax-free income of 10.250 billion yuan for liquor, a year-on-year increase of 9.76%; the revenue of series wines was 13.147 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.51%, accounting for 16.09% of kweichow moutai's revenue in the same period, setting a historical high.

in addition, kweichow moutai also announced that from 2024 to 2026, the total amount of cash dividends distributed by the company each year will not be less than 75% of the net profit attributable to the parent company in that year. in principle, dividends will be distributed twice a year.