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the 2026 kaohsiung mayoral election has attracted much attention from the outside world, especially the democratic progressive party has many potential challengers. according to the latest poll released by taiwan's "tvbs poll center" on the 11th, kmt legislator ko chien is leading the green camp legislators lin daihua, lai ruilong, xu zhijie, qiu yiying and xu mingchun, the former head of the taiwan authorities' labor department, by 5% to 21%. in this regard, chen guanan, the former director of the kmt youth department, analyzed that there are three key reasons why ko chien was able to win: winning young people, winning middle-class voters, and gaining support from a small number of green camp members.

the poll shows that no matter who the dpp runs for, ko chien-en will be ahead in the polls. if lin dai-huah faces ko chien-en, 35% support lin dai-huah and 40% support ko chien-en; if lai rui-long faces ko chien-en, 35% support lai rui-long and 40% support ko chien-en; if hsu chih-chieh faces ko chien, 34% support hsu chih-chieh and 42% support ko chien; if chiu yi-ying faces ko chien, 34% support chiu yi-ying and 43% support ko chien; if hsu ming-chun faces ko chien, 24% support hsu ming-chun and 45% support ko chien.

chen guanan pointed out that ko chien's overall lead in the polls over his dpp opponent is different from the environment that sparked the "han wave". in addition to his personal charm, han kuo-yu won the kaohsiung mayoral election that year. another very important factor was that the green camp had been in power in kaohsiung for too long, and former kaohsiung mayor chen chu's administration had been making mistakes (causing trouble and making mistakes) in her later years, which caused a significant loosening of the base. however, judging from the results of this poll, the kaohsiung green camp has not only not loosened, but has become very solid. so ko chien's victory has other reasons, and the key is three: winning young people, winning middle-class voters, and gaining support from a small number of green camp members.

taiwanese media person huang yangming believes that since the mayor candidate has not yet been announced, the green camp in kaohsiung is still divided and has its own opinions. they have not yet united, and the kmt is not optimistic. however, huang yangming also admitted that ko chien's support shows that she has really campaigned in the local area. he emphasized that if a candidate wants to be competitive in the "nine-in-one" county and city elections two years later, at least in the polls, he must keep up with his opponent and the gap cannot be too big.

another public opinion analysis pointed out that according to the results of the 2022 kaohsiung mayoral election, dpp kaohsiung mayor chen chi-mai, who is seeking re-election, won 766,147 votes, accounting for 58.1%, while kmt representative ko chien won 529,607 votes, accounting for 40.16%. for the blue camp, it can only be regarded as the base has not been lost, adding a little confidence, but for ko chien, it still can't beat the green camp. no wonder ko chien said that "the polls also gave her a lot of vigilance."

as for the candidates from the democratic progressive party who are interested in competing for the mayoral position in kaohsiung, the support rates of lin daihua, xu zhijie, lai ruilong, and chiu yiying are still in a stalemate. only xu mingchun, who has not been working at the grassroots level for a long time, has a lower support rate. the 2018 kaohsiung mayoral primary election was fiercely fought, which led to an accidental reversal and han guoyu won the mayoral position in kaohsiung, causing the democratic progressive party to be cautious this time. however, without conflict and sparks, it is difficult for anyone to stand out. how to make a name for yourself without destroying the superficial peace, or to take the offensive to attack opponents within the party, it seems that it will be a struggle between heaven and man.(lin jingxian, strait herald reporter in taiwan)