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huawei is bravely venturing into uncharted territory, while apple is "squeezing toothpaste +1", but the competition between the two is far from the moment when "one side beats the other" as some people imagine.

text | she zongming

when life is not good, jokes are good. nowadays, there is nothing that cannot be played with jokes. if there is, then the three words "if there is" are not valid. this is probably why "amazing night", "the king of comedy: stand-up season" and "talk show and his friends" are so popular.

in the past two days, all kinds of joke tellers have eaten dumplings together again - because the performance format of the "technology circle spring festival gala" has become a competition.

apple and huawei both released new products on the same day. one claimed to be "a highlight moment", while the other said it was "highlight all the time". it is not an exaggeration to say "close to the face and zoom in".

considering that huawei and apple represent the top technology companies in china and the united states respectively, and their technologies such as smart manufacturing, wireless communications, aiot, chips, operating systems, etc. are at the forefront of the sino-us technology war, the comparison between huawei and apple's new phones will inevitably be tied to the grand narrative of great power game.

although the selling points are different, one focuses on the three-fold screen and the other focuses on ai mobile phones, it is the fate of the two iconic brands to be dragged into the interpretation framework of "a showdown of technological strength, a contest of market strategies, and competition between the electronic information industries of china and the united states."

▲huawei and apple’s press conferences held on the same day are bound to be compared.

within this framework, it is easy for huawei and apple fans to put the two new phones in an asymmetric comparison of "beauty vs. bare face".

at present, some joke makers are following the old jokes of "going to a nightclub, huawei holds apple" and "huawei, the distant neighbor", comparing huawei's three-fold screen mobile phone mate xt with apple's first mobile phone equipped with ai function, iphone 16, describing it as the crushing of "vip exclusive experience terminal for reviewing memorials" versus "standard configuration of nightclub ladies."

so, after turning off the filters, the beauty function, and the face-slimming function, which smartphone, huawei or apple’s, can better represent the “development direction of advanced productivity” in the mobile phone field?

my personal opinion is that as huawei has extended the "high-end representative cycle" of foldable screens and the curtain has not yet been raised on the "next generation of mobile phones" opened by ai phones, the relationship between huawei and apple as leaders and followers has partially shifted.

in the era of ai mobile phones, huawei and apple each excel in software and hardware. the three-fold screen mobile phone can strengthen huawei's hardware advantage, and apple intelligence, which is still in the "future product" stage, can enhance apple's software advantage - provided that its potential can be realized.

01

to compare huawei mate xt and apple iphone 16, we must first extend our focus to the generational dimension of mobile phone development.

although "redefining the mobile phone" has been ruined in "redefining 'redefinition'", from the history of technological development, the last time a revolutionary innovation occurred in the mobile phone was in 2007.

that year, steve jobs launched the first generation of iphone equipped with multi-touch screen technology and integrated with ios system, which completely overturned the pattern of mobile phone industry and led mankind into a new era of smart phones. the curtain of mobile internet was also opened.

after that, although the mobile phone industry has overused big words such as "historic breakthrough", "epoch-making significance" and "milestone product", the new products that are constantly being launched are still far from the standard of "next generation mobile phone".

the question is: is the foldable screen mobile phone a revolutionary innovation in the history of mobile phone development?

from the perspective of the depth of technological breakthroughs and the breadth of market applications, it is indeed a major breakthrough, but due to the ceiling of penetration, it is more of a "standard quantum limit" type breakthrough before the next generation of mobile phones appears.

it is no exaggeration to say that this is a major breakthrough: the transition from single-screen to multi-screen seems to be just a bigger screen, but just as the most obvious external feature of the upgrade from feature phones to smartphones is the change from physical keys to touch screens, multi-screen is the ultimate exploration of mobile phone manufacturers before the best answer to "what is the next generation of mobile phones" comes out.

huawei's three-folding screen mobile phone is the "culmination" of folding screen mobile phone technology. jobs turned the mobile phone into a mobile phone + camera + mp3 + internet device, while huawei turned the mobile phone into a candy bar phone, a double-folding phone, a tablet and a computer. in terms of seeking surprise and innovation, huawei can be regarded as the one who took over the mantle of apple in the past.

▲huawei's three-fold screen mobile phone has amazed many people.

it is also true that its penetration rate is limited: although foldable screen mobile phones are expected to become the backbone of the high-end market, the "high price" is enough to keep most people out of its user group.

according to data provided by idc, in the second quarter of this year, the global foldable smartphone market grew by 57% year-on-year, with shipments reaching 3.9 million units, but foldable smartphone shipments accounted for only 1.3% of the entire smartphone market. some analysts say that at least in the next five years, the share of foldable screen phones in the market will only hover around 5%.

the triple-folding screen mobile phone embedded with hand-made rock vein texture, black gold waistline, craftsman logo and legendary star diamond is destined to become a "luxury product" that meets the consumption needs of a small group of people, rather than becoming a popular product.

han hui, founder of blue media, said that it is obviously wrong to judge huawei with the eyes of looking at mobile phones. in the future, the p series can be made into light luxury like ralph lauren and coach, the mate series can be made into mid-luxury like burberry and versace, and the foldable x series can be made into heavy luxury like hermès and lv. as for nove and enjoy, one can be made into a sub-brand and the other into a fast-moving consumer product.

before the mobile phone industry fully enters the next cycle, the tri-fold screen will be the new high-end business card.

so, what should the next generation of mobile phones look like?

following the signs of the times, the general direction seems to be clear.

from the perspective of the development of "pc internet-mobile internet-ai internet", ai mobile phones are the core of the next-generation mobile phone form. honor ceo zhao ming's statement a few days ago also pointed to this point - "mobile phones will enter the era of autonomous driving."

the tri-fold screen mobile phone is the ultimate representative of the smartphone in the "mobile era", while the ai ​​mobile phone is the evolutionary direction of the smartphone in the "ai era". one may be the advanced stage of the current cycle, and the other is the next cycle.

02

as of now, huawei has taken the lead in the new commanding heights of high-end mobile phones (the field of foldable screen mobile phones), while apple wants to go directly to the next stop (ai mobile phones), but has not yet proven itself.

as triple-folding screen phones redefine high-end phones, huawei mate xt is indeed at the forefront.

in the eyes of some people, huawei's release of its first self-developed 5g mobile phone, the mate60, last year was just a "step forward" in breaking through the blockade of 5g chip technology. now that huawei has released the world's first mass-produced tri-fold screen mobile phone, the mate xt, it is a "step forward" in the sense of broad technological leadership.

whether this is true or not is still open to discussion, but huawei was able to be the first to launch a three-fold screen mobile phone, becoming the only manufacturer in the world with three types of folding screens (horizontally folding inward, horizontally folding outward, and vertically folding) products. this cannot be achieved by just reading those four words.

"the world's first tri-fold foldable phone, the world's largest foldable phone, the world's thinnest foldable phone." if it were just a self-proclaimed slogan like a certain deceased brand's "the best smartphone in the eastern hemisphere," it would at best be too high-profile and not very capable.

no one wants to go out with a brick, or to scratch a part of their phone and ruin it, or to experience frame drops in the game or freeze in the video when switching between single, dual, or triple screens.

huawei mate xt managed to land this "bull" that even advertising methods couldn't stop safely from the air thanks to its unparalleled hinge system, the world's thinnest silicon anode and large-capacity battery, ultra-dimensional folding organic materials, utg glass and non-newtonian fluid.

in addition to hard-core technology, huawei also relies on business confidence.

in recent years, many domestic and foreign mobile phone manufacturers have demonstrated triple-folding "concept phones", including samsung abroad and honor, vivo, tcl and transsion in china.

among them, samsung demonstrated three-fold screen prototypes called flex s and flex g in 2022. tecno, a brand under transsion, the "king of african mobile phones", also released its three-fold screen concept phone phantom ultimate 2 at the end of august.

but huawei is the first to have the capacity for mass production and the confidence to sell well. honor ceo zhao ming previously revealed: "honor has completed the technology of the three-fold screen, and the time node for commercialization will be determined based on consumer demand."

▲even someone as "harsh" as li nan, a former meizu executive, admitted that before huawei, no manufacturer dared to mass-produce tri-fold screen mobile phones.

to put it bluntly, many mobile phone manufacturers are thinking about "going with the trend", but huawei is thinking about "creating momentum" - what it picked up is probably steve jobs' creed: demand is created.

the launch of huawei mate xt will obviously help to mature the foldable screen mobile phone market and attract more players to enter. it itself will be able to get a reward package given by time called "pioneer bonus".

the number of pre-orders exceeded 4 million, which is certainly due to the "glory of domestic products" filter, but it is also a manifestation of the "first mover bonus". at the very least, in the field of high-end mobile phones, huawei will have more say in the future.

in contrast, apple applied for a patent for a folding device hinge in may this year. according to the forecast of the third-party agency omdia, apple is expected to launch a folding iphone product in 2026, and is also expected to launch a folding ipad product later.

but the runners and the pioneers are destined to be in two different positions. just look at the difference in starting price between huawei mate xt and apple iphone 16.

03

it is foreseeable that before ai phones replace tri-fold screen phones and become synonymous with "new generation phones", huawei phones will be able to regain the leading position they once lost in the high-end mobile phone market with their leading folding screen technology.

but from a long-term historical perspective, foldable screen phones are the midfield, and ai phones are the second half.

huawei, which dominates the foldable screen mobile phone market, and apple, which is a few steps behind in the foldable screen mobile phone market but wants to establish a foothold in the ai ​​mobile phone market, it is not yet time to assert "who will win and who will lose miserably".

for many years, the standard program of public opinion at apple's new product launch conferences has been ridicule. in apple's own eyes, apple is often "awesome, my phone", while in the eyes of the outside world, apple is "living off its past glory".

the same is true for the release of iphone 16. cook said that "iphone 16 is the most advanced iphone", but netizens mocked that this was another "hard work" and "technology is based on changing the shell". musk, a "senior apple hater", took the opportunity to ridicule apple again.

apple is not wrongly criticized. although the fact that netizens "mock the iphone for its lack of innovation while willing to pay for the fact that no app dares to make waves on apple phones" is a blessing for apple, the capital accumulated by jobs is slowly running out.

mockery aside, if you really think that the ai ​​capabilities of the iphone 16, apple’s first ai phone, are weak, then you might be suffering from "apple hater visual impairment."

it is true that apple started early but arrived late in the field of ai with siri, but after all, it is the mobile phone manufacturer that performs best in the integration of software and hardware. who can ignore the potential of apple intelligence in creating an ideal ai mobile assistant for users?

this time, apple has highlighted the new 3nm a18 chip and the newly added “camera control” button on the side, both of which are designed for apple smartphones.

▲the advanced a18 chip is an important selling point of apple iphone16.

what apple's intelligence, which is supported by three systems: self-developed terminal models, cloud models and gpt, will look like with the support of openai and private cloud computing will only be revealed when it is officially launched in october.

however, its chip + advanced ai large model integration capabilities still make it not to be underestimated.

it is worth noting that some people on the internet disagree with the a18 chip and think it is just a gimmick.

but chips are also an important factor in the competition for ai mobile phones. the a18 is 40% faster than the gpu of the a16 chip (5nm process) in the iphone 15, and twice as fast as the a14 gpu (7nm process)... people working in the mobile phone industry should know its significance.

in terms of ai functions alone, the apple iphone 16 is not in a head-on competition with the huawei mate xt, which has basic ai functions but still needs to supplement its special ai functions. the huawei mate70 is the only comparable counterpart.

04

can apple, which has launched its first ai mobile phone, get ahead of huawei in the ultimate battle of ai mobile phones?

obviously, this is not the case. huawei's launch of a three-fold screen phone is an innovation in the hardware of the phone, and apple's attack on apple smart phones is to improve the phone experience from the software level. both can actually pave the way for making better ai phones.

huawei's mobile phone, with its harmonyos system inside and a triple-folding screen outside, can use its larger screen and "super terminal" with a new interactive logic as the smart entrance to the next era - it is more than just a mobile phone.

huawei has accumulated a lot of capabilities in ai. in august 2023, it announced that the harmonyos4 system would be fully integrated with the self-developed pangu big model 3.0, becoming the world's first mobile terminal operating system embedded with ai big model capabilities. it also enabled xiaoyi, huawei's voice assistant, giving huawei ai mobile phones a lot of imagination.

apple's advantages in software, hardware and ecology make it inevitable that it will be seen as one of the strongest candidates for ai phone.

in the ai ​​era, 3-nanometer process chips and advanced large-model integration capabilities may become its trump cards.

the order of their positions in the foldable-screen mobile phone market reflects the difference in roles between huawei and apple: apple has been firmly sitting on the throne of the world's largest company by market value for many years, and its biggest demand for product iteration is to maintain system stability, a complete ecosystem, and a smooth experience, rather than engaging in radical exploration of quick in and quick out like other mobile phone manufacturers, so it is accustomed to seeking stability; huawei's mobile phone business has been under siege since 2018, and its desire to survive has forced it to seek unexpected changes.

when it comes to the competition for ai mobile phones, both sides have their own advantages. your advantage lies in chips, and my advantage lies in large foldable screens. it depends on who can make good use of the existing advantages and discover more new advantages.

it should be noted that since google announced in may 2023 that it would build a large end-to-end model on the pixel phone, firing the first shot of ai mobile phones, the war of ai mobile phones has become inevitable. huawei, which can survive and die, and apple, which realizes that it has fallen behind in the ai ​​competition and is starting to catch up, still have more battles to fight.

who can go further in the era of ai mobile phones will only be revealed with time.

from a long-term perspective, although huawei has won one round in the current "flower-fruit mountain" mountaintop game - huawei bravely entered the no-man's land and apple "squeezed toothpaste +1", the competition between the two is far from the moment when "one side beats the other" as some people imagine.

from this perspective, it is easy to frame the issue as "i win, you lose miserably", but it is very important to be humble and not impatient on the basis of recognizing the multifaceted reality.