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the general administration of customs released data on september 10. in terms of us dollars, china's total import and export value in august was us$526.27 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%; exports were us$308.65 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8.7%; imports were us$217.63 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%; and the trade surplus was us$91.02 billion.

in the first eight months, china's total import and export value was 4.02 trillion us dollars, an increase of 3.7%. exports were 2.31 trillion us dollars, an increase of 4.6%; imports were 1.71 trillion us dollars, an increase of 2.5%; and the trade surplus was 608.49 billion us dollars, an increase of 11.2%.

data source: general administration of customs

in terms of rmb, china's total import and export value in august was 3.75 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%; exports were 2.20 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.4%; imports were 1.55 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.0%; and the trade surplus was 649.34 billion yuan.

in the first eight months, china's total import and export value was 28.58 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6%. exports were 16.45 trillion yuan, up 6.9%; imports were 12.13 trillion yuan, up 4.7%; and the trade surplus was 4.32 trillion yuan, an increase of 13.6%.

data source: general administration of customs

external demand is strong, and export growth in august exceeded expectations

in terms of us dollars, exports in august were us$308.65 billion, up 8.7% year-on-year, 1.7 percentage points faster than the previous month, exceeding market expectations. the export growth rate in the first eight months (4.6%) was also higher than the previous value.

the agency believes that the accelerated export growth in august was affected on the one hand by the low base of the same period last year, and on the other hand by strong external demand.

wen bin, chief economist of minsheng bank, pointed out that the us inventory replenishment continued to support global trade. the latest data showed that us inventory increased by 2.1% year-on-year in june, and sales increased by 2.2% year-on-year, both reaching the highest point of the year. the global semiconductor cycle remained upward, and south korea's exports increased by 11.4% year-on-year in august, which is good for my country's electronic product exports.

zhou maohua, a macro researcher at the financial market department of everbright bank, believes that global demand continues to expand, which provides certain support for my country's foreign trade demand. my country's foreign trade structure continues to optimize, and trade with emerging markets such as asean, the belt and road initiative co-construction countries, and latin america remains highly prosperous. in addition, due to the unstable policy outlook in europe and the united states and the increase in shipping costs due to geopolitical conflicts, it is not ruled out that some retail traders will prepare goods in advance during the traditional peak consumption season.

looking at the main export destinations, my country's top three export markets in august were the united states, the european union, and asean. however, in terms of year-on-year export growth, exports to the eu and asean were faster than to the united states. among them, the export growth rate to the eu was as high as 13.4%, becoming the biggest driving force for the acceleration of overall export growth that month, exceeding market expectations.

feng lin, director of research and development at orient securities, believes that this is partly due to the low base in the same period last year. at the same time, it also does not rule out the possibility that the recent sino-eu trade frictions may cause data fluctuations, and the sustainability of this needs further observation.

in addition, feng lin pointed out that in may, the united states announced additional tariffs on china's "new three items" and other goods worth $18 billion. although the scale of goods involved in this tariff increase is relatively small (accounting for 3.6% of my country's exports to the united states in 2023), the impact is limited, but combined with the uncertainty brought about by the us election, it may bring about the "export rush" effect of other goods to the united states in the short term. it is expected that my country's export momentum to the united states will remain strong for some time to come.

from the perspective of major export products, the export of mechanical and electrical products, high-tech and equipment manufacturing represented by the new three products performed well. according to the data from the general administration of customs, in the first eight months, in terms of rmb, mechanical and electrical products accounted for nearly 60% of exports, among which the exports of automatic data processing equipment and its parts, integrated circuits, automobiles, and mobile phones increased by 11.6%, 24.8%, 22.2%, and 0.5% respectively.

domestic demand recovery was weak, commodity prices fell, and the year-on-year growth rate of imports in august declined

in terms of us dollars, imports in august were us$217.63 billion, up 0.5% year-on-year, a significant drop from the previous value (7.2%).

the agency believes that the import growth rate dropped sharply in august. one of the reasons is the upward base of the same period last year. at the same time, it is also affected by the weak recovery of domestic market demand and the decline in commodity prices. insufficient domestic demand continues to drag down the growth of import volume.

feng lin pointed out that due to the market's growing concerns about the global economic outlook, international prices of bulk commodities such as crude oil, copper and aluminum have fallen recently, and have gradually been transmitted to my country's import prices. price factors have also had a certain downward effect on the year-on-year growth rate of imports in august.

zhou maohua believes that the domestic consumption recovery is weak, the real estate market is sluggish, and companies are cautious in increasing imports of energy and some raw materials and inventory decisions.

from the perspective of imported goods, integrated circuits are my country's largest import category. although the year-on-year growth rate of import value in august has declined, the growth rate is still relatively high. feng lin believes that since the beginning of this year, the import of integrated circuits has maintained high growth. the main reason is that against the backdrop of the upward global electronics cycle, my country's integrated circuit exports have grown rapidly, driving import demand in the processing trade link.

signals of slowing external demand have emerged, and export growth may slow down

although current external demand is strong, driving high export growth, institutions believe that signals of slowing external demand have appeared and export growth may slow down in the next stage.

"the jpmorgan global manufacturing pmi index was 49.5% in august and has been in the contraction range for two consecutive months. in addition, the recent us manufacturing pmi index and employment data showed a relatively obvious trend of economic weakening, which shows that signals of slowing external demand have appeared." feng lin said that my country's export growth rate may show a downward trend before the end of the year, and the driving force of external demand on economic growth will weaken accordingly.

china caitong securities believes that under the influence of the high base of the same period last year, coupled with the increased volatility of global economic growth, the export growth rate may come under pressure, but the growth rate for the whole year will not be bad, and the impact on economic growth may also turn from a drag last year to a boost.

zhou maohua believes that the strong performance of foreign trade exports and foreign trade surplus is beneficial to the economic growth in the third quarter and the whole year, and provides strong support for the realization of the annual economic goals. however, given the complexity of the global economic and geopolitical environment, my country's foreign trade exports face many headwinds. while domestic macroeconomic policies are actively promoting the recovery of effective demand, support for foreign trade still needs to be increased.

on the import side, zhou maohua believes that imports are expected to show a moderate expansion trend. on the one hand, the country has further strengthened the implementation of macroeconomic policies, and the restoration of effective demand is expected to drive commodity imports. but on the other hand, it will take some time for domestic consumption and real estate to recover, and the recovery of domestic demand is moderate. in addition, the global economy is facing increasing headwinds and concerns about insufficient commodity demand, which may continue to constrain commodity price performance, and the momentum of foreign trade imports is expected to remain moderate.