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according to phoenix finance, on september 10, the three major indexes opened higher collectively, with the shanghai composite index up 0.05%, the shenzhen component index up 0.01%, and the chinext index up 0.08%. the stem cell, private hospital, and shanghai state-owned assets sector indices led the gains.

peripheral market:

this morning, the three major u.s. stock indexes, which experienced the "largest weekly decline" in the past one to two and a half years last week, all closed higher. investors gradually moved away from last week's employment data and began to turn their attention to this week's cpi data and the u.s. presidential debate. as of the close, the s&p 500 index rose 1.16% to 5471.05 points; the nasdaq index rose 1.16% to 16884.6 points; and the dow jones industrial average rose 1.2% to 40829.59 points.

most chinese stocks rose, with the nasdaq china golden dragon index up 0.69%. alibaba rose 0.32%, baidu rose 0.77%, pinduoduo fell 0.9%, jd.com fell 0.69%, netease fell 0.03%, nio rose 10.76%, li auto rose 3.06%, and xpeng motors fell 0.23%.

institutional views:

citic securities: gold prices are expected to remain high in the second half of the year

according to a research report by citic securities, in the first half of 2024, gold prices rose rapidly and maintained high fluctuations, and the consumption and investment attributes of gold were clearly reflected: the volume of gold jewelry fell, while the volume of gold bars rose; the operating performance of brands with a high proportion of investment gold (gold bars, gold coins, etc.) was less affected, and brands with strong design and brand power and in the growth stage achieved counter-cyclical growth. looking forward to the second half of 2024, it is expected that gold prices will remain high, and consumers will gradually accept high gold prices and release suppressed purchasing demand, and franchisees will replenish inventory, which is expected to drive the recovery of gold jewelry sales; from a brand perspective, brands with a high proportion of investment gold, whose design and brand power can be realized, and which are still in the early stages of store expansion and growth may perform well; at the same time, attention should be paid to the increase brought by online and overseas businesses.

guotai junan: subsidy policies continue to increase and domestic sales of home appliances are expected to usher in an upward turning point

guotai junan research report pointed out that the unexpected subsidies will focus on home appliance retail in q4 2024, and domestic sales are expected to usher in an upward inflection point. leading white appliance companies have taken the lead in participating in the event channels; companies with full-category layout will benefit more. enterprises will increase actual subsidies, and companies with good operating quality and stable cash flow are expected to have spare capacity to participate in investment during the important consumer festivals in the second half of the year.

huatai securities: waiting for the bottom of real estate inventory and profitability, optimistic about real estate companies with core resources and stable operations

huatai securities pointed out that it continued the previous analysis framework and sorted out the 2024 interim performance of key a/h listed real estate companies from four dimensions: performance, sales, expansion, and financing. the real estate industry has not yet emerged from the pain period of transformation, and inventory reduction is still in progress. in the face of the balance between maintaining sales and maintaining profits, the profitability of leading real estate companies is also being tested. however, with the gradual policy support and the background of real estate companies' own efforts to transform, market confidence may gradually recover, and the industry will eventually gradually reach a new balance. in this process, we are more optimistic about real estate companies and property management companies with core resources and stable operations.

cicc: although the us economy may not be in recession, recession trading is still worth participating in

according to a research report by cicc, at the current point in time, the probability of both a soft landing and a hard landing in the united states is not low. we believe that recession trading is still worth participating in for two reasons: first, the market underestimates the risk of recession, providing opportunities for reverse trading. looking at the popular views this year, whether it is the expectation of a shallow interest rate cut by the federal reserve, a preventive interest rate cut, or a bullish view on us stocks, copper, and oil, or the expectation of overseas interest rates "higher for longer", all are based on the strong assumption that "the us economy will not decline." second, the logic of recession trading is difficult to disprove in the short term. although the us economy is currently running well, under the triple pressure of the exhaustion of excess savings of us residents, the gradual emergence of high interest rate pressure, and the gradual decline of fiscal support, the economic cycle has been confirmed to be down, and there may be more data in the future to indicate downward economic pressure and end the current situation of data differentiation.