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interface news reporter | liu chenguang

on september 9, the shanghai stock exchange and the shenzhen stock exchange issued an announcement.alibaba-w(09988.hk) has been officially included in the hong kong stock connect, effective from september 10, 2024.

according to the notice issued by the shanghai and shenzhen stock exchanges, due to the adjustment of constituent stocks of the hang seng composite large cap index, mid cap index and small cap index, the list of hong kong stock connect targets has been adjusted and will take effect from the next hong kong stock connect trading day.

interface news reporter noticed that, overall, the transfer of alibaba-w,tea 100 ways(02555.HK)、cloud music(09899.HK)、sf express(09699.hk) and 33 other stocks.powerlong real estate(01238.HK)、xiabu xiabu(00520.HK)、value partners group(00806.HK)、bohai bank(09668.hk) and 33 other stocks.

not long ago, on september 4, hang seng index company issued an announcement to add a new fast inclusion rule to the hong kong stock connect index, which is also considered to be a positivealibabafor securities that are eligible for southbound trading under the stock connect due to conversion from secondary listing to primary or dual primary listing, hang seng indexes company limited will conduct a quick review of the securities for inclusion and, on the first day of eligibility for the stock connect, if the closing total market capitalization of the eligible securities ranks in the top 10 among the existing constituents, the securities will be included in the index in the next regular monthly adjustment or otherwise stated.

wind data shows that based on the market value at the close of september 9, alibaba still ranks sixth.

on august 28, alibaba announced that it had officially completed its dual primary listing in hong kong, becoming a company with dual primary listings on the hong kong stock exchange and the new york stock exchange. the company's common shares listed on the hong kong stock exchange and its american depositary shares listed on the new york stock exchange continue to be convertible.

some analysts pointed out that dual primary listing means that even if a company is delisted from the us stock market, its hong kong stocks can still be traded; but secondary listing is different, that is, once a company is delisted in the united states, its listing status in hong kong stocks will be uncertain. this means that alibaba's completion of dual primary listing has also cleared the obstacles for entering the hong kong stock connect.

china merchants securitiesit is pointed out that after alibaba is included in the stock connect, passive funds of related themes are expected to form buying orders due to the adjustment of constituent stocks. at the same time, southbound funds may be actively allocated, which is expected to bring about liquidity improvement.

goldman sachs believes that based on the semi-annual review of the hong kong-shenzhen stock connect, alibaba's inclusion in the hong kong-shenzhen stock connect after completing its main listing in hong kong may bring in potential net capital inflows of us$15 to us$16 billion.

cicc analysis pointed out that alibaba's shareholder returns have increased significantly since fiscal year 2024. it is expected that alibaba's net shareholder return after deducting equity incentives will exceed 8% in 2024 and maintain a high shareholder return in the next 2-3 years. in addition, alibaba will enter the hong kong stock connect after completing its dual primary listing, and it is estimated that the potential increase in long-term southbound funds will exceed hk$130 billion.

shen meng, executive director of xiangsong capital, told interface news reporters that alibaba is still one of the world's major internet companies, so entering the hong kong-shenzhen stock connect will give mainland investors the opportunity to participate in and share in alibaba's development dividends, while also helping to maintain hong kong's status as an international financial center.

independent stock analyst cen zhiyong also pointed out that southbound funds can also buy alibaba, giving mainland investors an additional investment option.

qu fang, a senior investment consultant at wanlian securities, told jiemian news that the move will bring more southbound capital inflows to the company, increasing its market support and liquidity. inclusion in the hong kong stock connect index will have a positive impact on alibaba's trading volume, and it is expected that the shareholding ratio of southbound funds may stabilize at more than 10%, providing great support for the company's long-term value. in addition, alibaba's market value ranks sixth among hong kong stocks, meeting the conditions for rapid inclusion in the hong kong stock connect index. this change is expected to make alibaba more attractive in the international market while generating a stronger sense of identity among domestic investors.

qu fang believes that when considering investment decisions, investors should pay attention to the cyclical fluctuations of the market and the risks that may be brought about by the market reaction after the implementation of policies. although policy changes have brought benefits, it is necessary to carefully evaluate factors including alibaba's performance fluctuations, the market environment and the overall macroeconomic impact.

"in summary, the introduction of the new rapid inclusion rules for the hong kong stock connect index indicates that alibaba will usher in new opportunities in the capital market. investors should evaluate their holding strategies in a timely manner to achieve better investment returns. at the same time, continued attention to policy changes and market trends will help to better grasp investment opportunities," said qu fang.

zhongtai international research pointed out that alibaba has faced a competitive dilemma in the past few years. the core problem is that the consumer value created by the platform under the b2b positioning is insufficient, and the change in demand structure brought about by "consumption downgrade" is only superficial. as the company realizes the problem and starts reform, the platform's competitiveness is expected to improve. it may be difficult to say that the competitive situation has been completely reversed at present, but the deep underestimation and significantly improved capital allocation have left sufficient safety margins for investment.