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[difend, director of amundi investment institute, said that the bank of japan's unexpected rate hike in july and the shift in japan's monetary policy it indicated completely changed the yen's situation. "we currently believe that the fair value of the yen against the dollar is 140." nakamura also regards 140 as a key level. he also added that in the context of the market's awareness of the risk of further liquidation of carry trades due to the continued appreciation of the yen, if the yen gradually appreciates further against the dollar to the 130-135 range, the impact on the market will still be controllable.]

[even though the adjusted real gdp (gdp) annualized rate for the second quarter of japan released on the morning of the 9th was revised down to 2.9%, the market's expectation that the bank of japan will raise interest rates again this year has not been shaken at all.]

since the beginning of this year, the global market has repeatedly jumped back and forth between the "rate cut trade" and the "recession trade" in the overall environment of unpredictable monetary policy prospects of many major central banks around the world, elections in many countries, and continued geopolitical turmoil. in early august, after a series of economic data broke out, the market was worried that the federal reserve would cut interest rates too late and the risk of a "hard landing" would inevitably emerge in the us economy. the "us recession trade", coupled with the appreciation of the yen and the liquidation of yen carry trades caused by the sudden "hawkish" stance of the bank of japan, triggered a global market shock from the united states to the asia-pacific region, from the stock market to the bond market and the foreign exchange market.

after the market was calm for just over a month, history repeated itself. the august non-farm payrolls data released last friday again fell short of expectations, causing investors who were already frightened to return to the "recession trade" in an instant. the s&p 500 and nasdaq recorded their worst weekly performance since march 2023 and march 2022, respectively. the chicago board options exchange volatility index (vix) rose to 22.38, surging about 49% last week. commodities also fell across the board. during the asia-pacific trading session on the 9th, the nikkei 225 index futures fell by more than 5% at one point, almost taking over the baton of the turmoil in the us stock market again. since then, the decline has narrowed. as of the afternoon close, among the major asia-pacific stock indices, the nikkei 225 index, the topix index, the south korean kospi composite index, and the australian s&p/asx index all closed slightly lower.