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japanese stocks fell sharply again at the opening of monday. the nikkei 225 index fell by 3% at one point, and as of press time, it fell by 2.97%. south korean stocks also fell sharply, and as of press time, the korea composite index fell by 1.36%.

us stocks also plummeted

last friday, u.s. stocks experienced a sharp drop.

the dow fell 1.01%, the s&p 500 fell 1.73%, and the nasdaq fell 2.55%. amazon fell 3.65%, and american express fell 3.08%, leading the decline of the dow. tesla fell 8.45%, and nvidia fell 4.09%. most chinese stocks fell, with legend biotech falling 10.66% and zeekr falling 9.78%.

gold, silver and crude oil rebounded at the opening on monday after a sharp drop last friday.

fear index soars

on the news front, the non-farm data released by the united states could not support the federal reserve's sharp interest rate cut in september, and the federal reserve remained silent on the extent of the rate cut; the bank of japan also said that it might raise interest rates; and buffett began to sell stocks in large quantities again. the above three pieces of information caused the global panic index to soar.

the united states released its non-farm data for august. according to the bureau of labor statistics, the number of non-farm payrolls in the united states increased by 142,000 in august, which was expected to increase by 165,000 and the previous value was 114,000. the employment growth in august was consistent with the average employment growth in recent months, but lower than the average monthly growth of 202,000 in the previous 12 months.

the third-in-command of the federal reserve, williams, said it is appropriate to lower the federal funds rate now, and he is more confident that the inflation rate can sustainably move closer to 2%, and the policy can gradually move in a more neutral direction.

williams also said the job market was unlikely to spark inflationary pressures, but he did not comment on the likely size of the first rate cut.

since september, the chicago board options exchange volatility index (vix) has surged, soaring about 49% last week. as the interest rate meeting approaches, whether the volatility risk has not been fully released, investors seem to need to find more clear information and confidence from the economic outlook and the federal reserve's monetary policy.

buffett sells stocks again

in september, buffett did not stop selling bank of america shares. berkshire hathaway reduced its holdings of bank of america shares for three consecutive trading days on september 3, 4 and 5, 2024, totaling 18.746 million shares, cashing in about us$760 million.

according to statistics, berkshire has cashed out a total of about us$6.97 billion since it sold bank of america shares on july 17.

according to buffett's habit, when he starts selling a stock, he will eventually sell it off. in recent years, berkshire has sold off the stocks of many banks, including u.s. bancorp, wells fargo, and bank of new york mellon.

market analyst and thestreetpro columnist doug kass expressed concern about buffett's stock-selling strategy, especially the reduction of holdings in apple and bank of america, which are considered "forever holdings."

a shares have bottom conditions

as for a-shares, analysts from many brokerage firms believe that the market has bottom conditions and there is a large room for rebound in the future.

analysts at galaxy securities believe that a-shares have considerable room for rebound in the future.

the current valuation of the a-share market is still at a historically low level, and there is a large room for rebound in the future. looking ahead, in terms of a-share allocation: the 2024 semi-annual report shows that the performance of the financial sector has improved beyond expectations, and the dividend rate of financial stocks is relatively high. the current financial mergers and acquisitions are accelerating, and it is expected that the financial sector will continue to outperform the entire a-share market. in september, new products in the consumer electronics industry will be unveiled one after another, which is expected to drive the outbreak of related themes. u.s. manufacturing activities are still trapped in the contraction range, the vitality of the u.s. job market has further weakened, expectations for interest rate cuts in september have increased, and the interest rate cut cycle is expected to begin. it is recommended to pay attention to a-share industries that may benefit from the fed's interest rate cuts.

cicc's research report pointed out that the market shows many bottom characteristics.

the market shows many bottom characteristics, but confidence restoration still needs more positive factors to support it. looking ahead to the future market, although there are still many suppressive factors both internally and externally in the near future, the market itself is in the value range, and attention should be paid to marginal changes in positive factors during the index adjustment period. the market has some bottom characteristics recently: the turnover rate of a shares calculated by free float market value has dropped to the historical bottom level of 1.5%; at the valuation level, the dividend yield of the csi 300 exceeds the 10-year treasury bond rate by 1.1 percentage points, and the valuation of the csi 300 index is near the historical bottom of one standard deviation, and the market has good valuation attractiveness; strong stocks often make up for the decline, which is also a common phenomenon at the historical stage bottom. follow-up attention will be paid to the progress of fiscal spending and the marginal impact of the fed's interest rate cut rhythm on my country's monetary policy, exchange rate, and capital market.

in terms of allocation, the attractiveness of the dividend sector has rebounded after adjustments, and more attention needs to be paid to the fundamentals of the numerator and the sustainability of dividends. since mid-july, consumer electronics, semiconductors, etc. have adjusted by more than 10%, and the valuations are not high. in addition, the consumer electronics sector may have more news catalysts recently, and there may be a phased market trend. pay attention to the field of technological innovation, especially sectors with independent industrial logic. export chains and globally priced resources may be differentiated after a short-term correction due to overseas fluctuations.

analysts at shenwan hongyuan believe that the market will continue to be weak.

in the short term, economic data is weak, and the second quarter results show little direction to strengthen the economic outlook. before major changes in policy expectations occur, the market may continue to operate along the original path. at this stage, the management's policy statements do not support the fermentation of particularly optimistic policy expectations, and the market game policy transactions are still not seen until the rabbit is released. putting aside all the complicated discussions, the environment faced by a-shares in the short term is weak fundamentals + vague policy expectations. the original path of the market is weak fluctuations.

the consumption services in the third quarter report may reflect more of the decline in demand (which was not fully reflected in the second quarter report). with the appreciation of the rmb, the current revenue of the export chain may be further under pressure. combined with the high base of the third quarter report, under the current path, the profit growth rate of the third quarter report may further decline. in this case, breaking through the original market path requires major changes in policy expectations, especially monetary policy. at this stage, the central bank expressed support for the easing direction, but the relevant statements on the magnitude and intensity are still restrained. it does not support particularly optimistic policy expectations. the market game policy is still not to see the rabbit, not to release the eagle. the fundamentals are weak, and the visibility of policy formulation, implementation, and effects is low. the market continues to be weak.