us economists warn: multiple “red flags” for recession flashing
2024-09-09
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business insider reported on august 30 that david rosenberg, a well-known american economist and president of rosenberg research, said that a series of recent signals indicate that the possibility of the us economy falling into recession is increasing. the article is excerpted as follows:
The probability of a recession hitting the US economy is rising after a flurry of signals have flashed in recent weeks and months.
the likelihood of a u.s. recession is rising after a series of recent signals (in recent weeks and months).
That's according to economist David Rosenberg of Rosenberg Research, who compiled a list of recessionary indicators in a note on Friday.
david rosenberg, president of rosenberg research, compiled a list of recession indicators in a report released on august 30.
"What is the best recession indicator? That's a hard question to answer — why not dodge it completely and just look at all of them?" Rosenberg asked.
“what is the most accurate recession indicator? that’s a hard question to answer — why not just avoid that question and look at all of them?” he asked.
According to Rosenberg, some worrying signals have historically only flashed on the precipice of an economic downturn.
rosenberg said that historically, some worrying signals only appear when the economy is about to fall into recession.
"The 'indicator of indicators' indicates recession," Rosenberg said.
"the 'indicators of indicators' point to a recession," rosenberg said.
Of the 20 recession indicators compiled by Rosenberg, nine have been triggered.
of the 20 recession indicators compiled by rosenberg, nine have been triggered.
Some of the recession signals that have flashed include the Sahm Rule, the Leading Economic Indicator Index, and the inverted yield curve, among others.
recession indicators that have been triggered include the sam's rule, leading indexes and an inverted yield curve.
"Currently, 45% of the recession indicators we tracked have been triggered. Going back to 1999, that's never happened without a recession occurring," Rosenberg said.
"right now, 45% of the recession indicators we track have been triggered," rosenberg said. "we've never had that happen without a recession since 1999."
The list of signals flashing has steadily risen since 2022, when only 10% were triggered. That rose to about 25% in 2023 and the first half of 2024.
the number of signals indicating a recession has been rising steadily since 2022, when only 10% were triggered. in 2023 and the first half of 2024, that number rose to around 25%.
But since then, the recession warnings have been growing.
since then, warnings about a us recession have increased.
"Sometimes more is more, and this is a case in point. Looking at recession thresholds across different sectors of the economy makes it clear that something has been changing since mid-2024 — the long-anticipated slowdown may finally be arriving," Rosenberg said.
“sometimes more is more, and this is a great example of that,” rosenberg said. “looking at the recession thresholds for different economic sectors clearly shows that something has been changing since mid-2024 — a recession may really be on the way.”
Source:Global Times
Editor: ChenDawei
Senior Editor: PangBo
