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as the final ruling of the us anti-dumping and countervailing duty approaches, where will chinese photovoltaic companies that have “lost” southeast asia go?

2024-09-09

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[according to statistics from industry consulting firm infolink consulting, by 2023, the middle east's photovoltaic demand will be about 20.5gw to 23.6gw, with the increase in demand mainly coming from the uae, turkey and saudi arabia.]

"in the future, the production capacity of the four southeast asian countries will be taxed when they re-enter the us market. because the tax rate is too high, vietnam's production capacity should not meet the conditions for entering the united states; malaysia and thailand have no opportunities to export components, but batteries still have market opportunities." zhong baoshen, chairman of longi green energy (601012.sh), said this at the 2024 interim performance briefing last week.

although the us's anti-dumping and countervailing investigation against four southeast asian countries has not yet been concluded, it is clear that southeast asia is no longer a "bridgehead" for chinese photovoltaic companies to export to the us market.

zhong baoshen said at the earnings conference that the actual ruling tax rate will not be determined until september or october, but the company believes that the tax rate that the united states may introduce will not be much different from the tax rate recommended in the previous stage. due to various trade restrictions, china's direct exports to the united states were basically close to zero in the past. among the current tariffs on exports from the four southeast asian countries to the united states, vietnam's tax rate is higher, while malaysia and thailand's tax rates are relatively low.

changes in production capacity in southeast asia

in may, the u.s. department of commerce initiated anti-dumping and countervailing duty investigations on imports of photovoltaic cells (whether assembled into modules or not) from malaysia, vietnam and certain other countries.

vietnam has the highest initial tax rate. according to data released by the u.s. international trade administration, the so-called dumping tax rates of cambodia, malaysia, thailand and vietnam are 125.37%, 81.22%, 70.36% and 271.28% respectively.