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china news service, september 9 (wang yongle) on the morning of the 9th, the national bureau of statistics will release the consumer price index (cpi) for august 2024. the average forecast of multiple institutions shows that the cpi in august increased by 0.7% year-on-year, and the increase continued to expand.

cpi may rise for seven consecutive years

data from the national bureau of statistics showed that in july 2024, the national cpi rose by 0.5% month-on-month and 0.5% year-on-year, marking the sixth consecutive month of year-on-year increases.

as for the cpi data for august that will be announced soon, wind data shows that as of september 8, the average forecast of 13 institutions for the year-on-year increase in cpi in august was 0.7%. in terms of the forecast values, 1 was 0.9%, 6 were 0.8%, 6 were 0.7% or below, and the highest forecast value waswestern securitiesthe lowest is 0.9% given by shanghai securities, with the lowest being 0.3% (median) given by shanghai securities. if calculated according to the average of the agency's forecasts, cpi has risen for seven consecutive months year-on-year, tied with february for the highest value this year and the highest value since march 2023.

according to institutional forecasts, cpi in august may continue to improve driven by food prices.

according to the monitoring of the ministry of agriculture and rural affairs, on august 30, the average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 27.53 yuan/kg, and the average price of 28 kinds of vegetables was 6.06 yuan/kg, up 9.42% and 19.53% from 25.16 yuan/kg and 5.07 yuan/kg on july 31, respectively, and up 22.19% and 16.09% from 22.53 yuan/kg and 5.22 yuan/kg in the same period last year, respectively.

zhang jingjing's team at china merchants macroeconomics said that due to the weak performance of new price increase factors during the year, the tail effect in august dropped from 0.0% to -0.3%, and the cpi in august is expected to increase by 0.6% year-on-year. structurally, food items continued to rise year-on-year, while non-food items may decline year-on-year.

a report from the peking university national economic research center stated that heavy rainfall affected food supply, and prices of pork, fruits and vegetables and other foods generally rose. in addition, the increase in summer travel led to an increase in prices of related services. the cpi is expected to increase by 0.8% year-on-year in august.

how will cpi trend in the future?

regarding the price trend in the next stage, institutions generally believe that it will still rise moderately.

zheshang securitiesit is believed that as the fundamentals improve, relevant price indicators will continue to rebound, and it is expected that the cpi will continue to rise moderately this year. considering that the sow production capacity will be accelerated in october 2023, which may affect the number of live pigs slaughtered after august this year, the subsequent pork price may show a certain increase, but the overall fluctuation range may be relatively limited.

tu qiang, senior macro analyst at shenwan hongyuan securities, predicts that food cpi will temporarily support the overall cpi in the third quarter, and the impact of weather may subside in the fourth quarter.

peking university national economic research center analyzed that due to the policy to promote the release of consumer demand and the low base effect, the cpi is on the rise overall. there is a certain pressure on the prices of consumer goods, and the price of services mainly depends on the recovery of demand. it is expected that the year-on-year growth rate of cpi in 2024 will increase compared with the previous year, about 0.6%. (china news service app)