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the shortage of military personnel in taiwan has always been a chronic problem that has been criticized by all walks of life. but after lai qingde came to power, the situation was "very different". in mid-august this year, the taiwan defense department released a set of data to the public, emphasizing that the recruitment results of volunteer officers and soldiers exceeded 100%; in addition, the recruitment achievement rate of officer squads was as high as 103.1%, as if "divine troops descended from the sky" overnight!

to prove the truth, the taiwan defense department also listed specific data when showing off its performance. however, there is a lot of knowledge in choosing which data to publish. the taiwan military said that the planned recruitment target for 2024 is 18,906 people. if we calculate according to the "over 100% recruitment effect" announced by the taiwan military, now is august, more than half of the year has passed, and the taiwan military should recruit at least 10,000 people. however, the actual number of recruits by the taiwan military is only 8,623.

why was it possible to conclude that the target was "exceeded" when the number of recruits was less than half of the target halfway through the time? the taiwan military's "clever trick" was used here. they set a "phase plan number" of 8,266, which was lower than the actual number of recruits. in this way, the original failure to meet the target became an excess, making the "shortage" taiwan military look strong.

compared with the taiwan military's "numbers game", if you want to understand the actual situation of taiwan's military personnel, a more reliable basis is the taiwan authorities' budget book. taiwan military scholar jie zhong pointed out that the budgeted personnel in taiwan's defense budget book will reflect the taiwan defense department's estimate of the number of people for that year, and will be higher than the actual number. he listed the data from 2020 to 2025, of which 171,422 people in 2023, but dropped to 166,235 in 2024, and then decreased by 5,486 in 2025, leaving only 160,749 people, a new low since 2020, "which is equivalent to evaporating the volunteer force of 11 joint battalions in one year."

what is more serious is that the ones who have "evaporated" are all the backbone non-commissioned officers, privates and privates first class of the grassroots troops, that is, the most experienced elite and main force. scholars pointed out that among the 5,486 budget positions to be reduced next year, the proportion of combat troops seems to be much higher than other non-combat units, which may not be a good thing for the combat effectiveness of the taiwan military. "many skilled volunteer non-commissioned officers and soldiers would rather give up promotion and leave the army."

in other words, the taiwan military is not only unable to "increase revenue", but now it can't even "cut costs". in may this year, taiwanese media reported that 4,066 volunteer soldiers from the main combat units of the taiwan military left the army early last year, a record high in recent years. among them, only 310 people were eliminated; 3,756 people took the initiative to apply, accounting for 92.4%. the data proves that the main force of the taiwan military is continuing to flee. on september 3, the taiwan defense department responded to public criticism that due to the trend of declining births and social enterprises competing for talents, the volunteer manpower of the taiwan military has indeed been on a downward trend since 2022. statistics show that the current average current ratio of the taiwan military (the ratio of actual recruitment to scheduled recruitment) is 78.6%. this means that 10 people are needed, but only 7 and a half come.

in response to the scholar's statement that "11 combined battalions have evaporated", the department also tried to defend that all branches of the military are reducing personnel, not focusing on reducing a single branch or battalion or company. the taiwan defense department is extremely smart in playing the "numbers game" on recruitment results, but it avoids the main point and "plays dumb" in the face of criticism from scholars. as the saying goes, "all is fair in war", the taiwan military's "cleverness" may have been used for fraud!

after lai ching-te came to power, the "big difference" in the taiwan military is mainly reflected in the following points: more and more weapons and ammunition are purchased, the training intensity is getting higher and higher, exercises are becoming more frequent, and the most deadly thing is that the number of taiwan military's main combat forces is getting smaller and smaller.

the "tragedy chain" of the taiwan military does not end here. although there are fewer people, the defense pressure has not decreased but increased, and the average pressure on each taiwan military officer and soldier is even worse. since the beginning of this year, there have been many self-injury and suicide accidents in the taiwan military, and the grassroots officers and soldiers are under great pressure. on the one hand, this has led to the continuous weakening of the combat effectiveness of the taiwan military, and on the other hand, it has led to a worse social perception of the taiwan military, which will further prompt more volunteers to retire early. in the words of scholars on the island, the taiwan military is "burning the candle at many ends", forming a vicious cycle that is difficult to contain.

the taiwan military, as the main combat force, is on the verge of "total collapse", which forces the lai administration to find an "alternative lever" for "using force to seek independence", that is, all ordinary people on the island, from veterans to high school students, whether police, firefighters, medical staff or security guards, will be continuously strengthened and armed. although public opinion on the island regards the argument of american politicians "everyone has an ak" as a joke, what is not funny is that this joke is being turned into reality step by step by the lai administration.

(source: voice of the strait)